All purpose news and politics thread part VII: News & Politics Total Landscaping

[hyped78]

Thanks to you all for providing important context! That this is coming from a poster who often attacks liberal/progressive ideas ("Woke" & Trans in Sports to the point of defending Chess Trans Bans), falls for conservative tricks (Biden's not withholding any weapons), and has a few other ticks that seem to indicate they aren't wholly honest is more useful context.

And this is coming from a poster (Dalak - which means 'spleen' in Turkish btw, in case you weren't aware) who likes to resort to ad-hominem attacks and purposeful misinterpretation, instead of commenting topics. I note that your comment isn't a comment on the inflation discussion (username taken and kirby are commenting on the topic).

That there shouldn't be trans women participating in professional women's sports is my opinion - do you have a problem with that? You seem to have a problem with opinions that don't match your own. I personally respect your opinion. I again note this isn't related to inflation.

On Biden withholding weapons, I will quote a Democrat - Senate Foreign Relations Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said President Joe Biden communicated the facts of the pause and its rationale poorly. That left an opening for House Republicans to introduce a bill forcing the sale of the bombs, a measure the White House said it would veto.The administration’s actions were not well understood “certainly not by Israel, certainly not by the public and certainly not here,” Cardin told reporters. “It was not clear what their motive was.”“If the purpose was to put a hold on the heavy bombs that should not be used in Gaza, that’s one thing, but that’s not how it was explained,” Cardin continued. “The administration has to clarify this, but my understanding is they were only concerned about this one particular weapon.” Even White House officials privately acknowledge there have been gaps in communication. “There was a little bit of confusion last week about what exactly was paused,” said one of them, who like two others was granted anonymity to detail sensitive internal dynamics.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...olicy-00158207
I again note this isn't related to inflation.

On inflation, do you disagree with the assessment of the San Francisco Fed Economists? Do you consider yourself qualified to question their findings? If you want to have a discussion, let's analyze aggregate mark-ups over the years in your country and juxtapose those with economic cycles.

[hyped78]

Ah, but the data is not posted by Firstname Bunchofnumbers on Xitter, so it does not count.

Haha true. And, honestly, I posted two charts with official data about wages and inflation, Kirby did the same and probably a few others did the same. If shooshoomanjoe prefers to continue looking at anecdotes and Twitter 'truth', then oh well...

[Tuck]

Official data has been posted showing that average wages are outpacing average inflation

Do they have anything on the median income? That's more instructive.

[hyped78]

Both articles cite the same study.

The first article in particular referenced other studies that showed somewhat different results.

Based on that, Greedflation can't be termed a progressive myth. At all.

The CNN article refers 1) the SF Fed, who say greedflation doesn't explain inflation ---> "the research undercuts the argument that greedflation drove the early inflation."

2) It mentions Biden, Warren and WH spokesperson Jeremy Edwards, none of which are studies

3) If mentions the US policy strategist at AGF Investments ---> “Blaming greedy corporations is just looking for scapegoats”

4) It mentions a Progressive think tank, Groundwork Collaborative, who blame greedflation (of course they do)

5) It quotes the president of a progressive watchdog, who blames greedflation (of course they do)

5) And then it mentions the Kansas City Fed ---> " Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that corporate profits contributed 41% to inflation during the first two years of the Covid recovery. However, that same Kansas City Fed paper noted that this is not unusual and corporate profits contributed even more (59% on average) to inflation during prior economic recoveries."

So there you have it. Do you disagree with the SF Fed and KC Fed conclusions?


I'm going to post the full article here, so that there is no misunderstanding:


Think corporate greed is the leading cause of inflation? Think again
Some progressives have frequently blamed corporate greed for fueling the high cost of living that Americans are fed up with.
Yet new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco casts doubt on the greedflation theory.
Economists at the SF Fed found that corporate price gouging was not a primary catalyst for the inflation surge of 2021 to 2022.
The Fed researchers did find that some companies exercised pricing power by raising prices above their production costs – a gap known as markups.
For instance, markups spiked for gasoline, cars and other goods in 2021. Likewise, there were increased markups for repair, general merchandise, laundry, personal care and other services, according to the Fed.

‘Not unusual’
Of course, the inflation crisis was not limited to just a few key sectors. It was economy-wide. (The annual inflation rate fell slightly in April, but it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.)
When zooming out and looking at markups across the economy, the SF Fed economists found little evidence that price gouging was the main culprit.
“Aggregate markups – the more relevant measure for overall inflation – have stayed essentially flat since the start of the recovery,” the paper concluded. “Rising markups have not been a main driver of the recent surge and subsequent decline in inflation during the current recovery.”
In fact, the SF Fed found that the path of collective markups over the past three years “is not unusual compared with previous recoveries.”

‘It angers them and angers me’
This runs counters to the argument from some progressives including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who for years has refocused the inflation argument on corporate greed.
“Right now prices are up at the pump, at the supermarket, and online. At the same time, energy companies, grocery companies, and online retailers are reporting record profits,” Warren said in December 2021. “That’s not simply a pandemic issue. It’s not simply some inevitable economic force of nature. It’s greed—and in some cases, it is flatly illegal.”
More recently, President Joe Biden has called out corporate greed as a reason prices remain high.
“If you take a look at what people have, they have the money to spend. It angers them and angers me that you have to spend more,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett, pointing to the shrinking size of Snickers bars and other food products. “It’s like 20% less for the same price. That’s corporate greed. That’s corporate greed. And we have got to deal with it. And that’s what I’m working on.”
In February, Biden said there are “still too many corporations in America ripping people off. Price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation.”
“America – we’re tired of being played for suckers!” Biden said.
Although the paper did not directly mention corporate greed, shrinkflation or Biden, the research undercuts the argument that greedflation drove the early inflation.
White House spokesperson Jeremy Edwards told CNN in a statement that the study supports Biden’s argument that “record profits are increasing inflation in some sectors, such as gas and general merchandise.”
“These markups should have reversed as we recovered from the pandemic—the fact that they haven’t means prices can come down if corporate profits come back to earth,” Edwards said. “President Biden has repeatedly called on large corporations to pass their record profits along to their customers by lowering prices. And he is taking on corporate rip-offs like hidden junk fees that costs families billions of dollars a year. The President will continue to call out corporate rip-offs and fight to keep money in Americans’ pockets.”

‘Looking for scapegoats’
The debate comes as inflation remains a major frustration for Americans – and a significant political liability for Biden ahead of the November election. Consumer sentiment, a metric closely tracked by the White House, unexpectedly tumbled to a six-month low at the start of May. It was the biggest one-month drop in nearly three years, a deterioration driven in part by concerns about inflation and interest rates.
Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, said the White House is “desperate to blame someone or something for inflation.”
“Blaming greedy corporations is just looking for scapegoats,” Valliere told CNN. “There’s no prescriptions here that would have a major impact quickly, other than the Fed reluctantly raising interest rates – an option that, incredibly, isn’t out of the question.”
Many economists blame the recent inflation surge on more traditional factors, namely higher production costs linked to swings in demand and Covid-era supply trouble.
To be sure, inflation has improved dramatically over the past two years.
After peaking at 9% in June 2022, annual inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) has eased to the low-to-mid 3% range.

Rate cuts delayed
However, progress in the inflation fight has stalled recently and the last three months of data have shown prices increased by more than expected. And inflation remains well above the 2% targeted by the Federal Reserve. The so-called final mile of returning inflation back to normal has proven to be difficult.
This situation has prevented the Fed from giving Americans a break from elevated borrowing costs, which remain at two-decade highs.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that it “looks like it will take longer for us to become confident that inflation is coming down to 2% over time.”
Although the SF Fed report pokes holes in the greedflation argument, other research has been more mixed.
For instance, progressive advocacy group Groundwork Collaborative recently argued that corporate profits drove 53% of inflation during the second and third quarters of 2023. That report found corporate profits were to blame for 34% of inflation since the start of Covid-19.
“There’s a reason most Americans blame corporate greed for high prices, and it’s because they know price-gouging when they see it,” Caroline Ciccone, president of progressive watchdog group Accountable.US, said in a statement. “It simply doesn’t add up when corporations enjoying record profits, enriching investors and giving their CEOs huge bonuses claim creeping price hikes were out of their control. They could have passed some success onto consumers in the form of stable and reasonable prices, but many chose to profiteer again and again.”
Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that corporate profits contributed 41% to inflation during the first two years of the Covid recovery.
However, that same Kansas City Fed paper noted that this is not unusual and corporate profits contributed even more (59% on average) to inflation during prior economic recoveries.

[hyped78]

Do they have anything on the median income? That's more instructive.

Yes, you can play around with different metrics, times series and baselines here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

[Jack Dracula]

Trump at NRA convention floats a 3-term presidency

In case anyone needs something to keep them up at night.
There might be a couple of legal workarounds for the 22nd amendment.
It doesn’t seem to forbid a former President from running as VP. What happens if the President must then step down for some reason? While Congress and the SCOTUS have a meltdown who would assume temporary control?

In the event of a war or “national crisis” I believe the current President has certain ability to temporarily suspend elections through executive order.

[hyped78]

I agree.

The area of contention is the mark-ups by the producers and why or if they should have come down post pandemic.

There's obviously price gouging going on and it's a driver of inflation but how much its driving overall inflation is the question.

KC Fed answers that, at the end of the article: " Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that corporate profits contributed 41% to inflation during the first two years of the Covid recovery. However, that same Kansas City Fed paper noted that this is not unusual and corporate profits contributed even more (59% on average) to inflation during prior economic recoveries."

So if post pandemic inflation was record high but corporate mark-ups actually explain a lower % of it versus what they contributed/explained to previous recovery inflationary drives, then.......?

To be clear: mark-ups ALWAYS drive inflation during recovery cycles. This time around it was the same - but actually they explained relatively less of a relatively higher general increase in consumer basket prices.

[hyped78]

There might be a couple of legal workarounds for the 22nd amendment.
It doesn’t seem to forbid a former President from running as VP. What happens if the President must then step down for some reason. While Congress and the SCOTUS have a meltdown who would assume temporary control?

In the event of a war or “national crisis” I believe the current President has certain ability to temporarily suspend elections through executive order.

Well, that has already happened with Putin and Medvedev... oh, wait, in a democracy? Never mind...

[Jack Dracula]

Well, that has already happened with Putin and Medvedev... oh, wait, in a democracy? Never mind...

Yes, Putin is why I thought of it.

[hyped78]

I am also posting the complete Reuters article here, to avoid misinterpretation:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/c...ws-2024-05-13/

Corporate greed not to blame for price pressures, Fed study shows
May 13 (Reuters) - Corporate price gouging has not been a primary driver of U.S. inflation, according to research published on Monday by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
While markups for motor vehicles and petroleum products did rise sharply during the 2021-2022 inflation surge, markups across the entire spectrum of U.S. goods and services have been relatively flat during the post-pandemic recovery, the bank's latest Economic Letter showed.

"As such, rising markups have not been a main driver of the recent surge and subsequent decline in inflation during the current recovery," wrote the bank's research chief Sylvain Leduc and colleagues Huiyu Li and Zheng Liu.
Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, peaked at 7.1% in June 2022 and has since fallen, registering 2.7% in March.

U.S. President Joe Biden has blamed corporate greed for still-elevated prices, accusing companies of boosting profits by shrinking portion sizes but leaving the selling price unchanged, and by failing to pass on falling costs to consumers.
Fed policymakers, and many economists, say the inflation surge can be better explained by the combined effect of supply chain disruptions and a drop in labor supply during the post-pandemic recovery that occurred just as consumer demand rose.

They attribute the recent easing in inflation to healing supply chains and a rise in immigration that has added to the supply of workers, along with cooling demand amid higher borrowing costs as the Fed raised its policy rate.
Leduc and his colleagues did not refer to Biden or use the colloquial term 'greedflation,' but their work was a clear rebuttal of the theory that corporate profiteering has been a main cause of higher prices. Other economists, using different methodologies, have drawn similar conclusions.

"Data for the current recovery show that the increase in corporate profits is not particularly pronounced compared with previous recoveries," the San Francisco Fed researchers wrote. "Markups also have not played much of a role in the slowing of inflation since the summer of 2022."

[hyped78]

Yes, Putin is why I thought of it.

I was also thinking about House of Cards, even if it's not the same use case (but it's something that could've easily been on House of Cards' plot/storyline)

[hyped78]

Trump 'glitches' during NRA speech - apparently, he can't speak without a teleprompter... or something worse!

"Donald Trump's 'Glitch' During NRA Speech Raises Questions"

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...speech-1902257

[Username taken]

The CNN article refers 1) the SF Fed, who say greedflation doesn't explain inflation ---> "the research undercuts the argument that greedflation drove the early inflation."

2) It mentions Biden, Warren and WH spokesperson Jeremy Edwards, none of which are studies

3) If mentions the US policy strategist at AGF Investments ---> “Blaming greedy corporations is just looking for scapegoats”

4) It mentions a Progressive think tank, Groundwork Collaborative, who blame greedflation (of course they do)

5) It quotes the president of a progressive watchdog, who blames greedflation (of course they do)

5) And then it mentions the Kansas City Fed ---> " Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that corporate profits contributed 41% to inflation during the first two years of the Covid recovery. However, that same Kansas City Fed paper noted that this is not unusual and corporate profits contributed even more (59% on average) to inflation during prior economic recoveries."

So there you have it. Do you disagree with the SF Fed and KC Fed conclusions?


I'm going to post the full article here, so that there is no misunderstanding:


Think corporate greed is the leading cause of inflation? Think again
Some progressives have frequently blamed corporate greed for fueling the high cost of living that Americans are fed up with.
Yet new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco casts doubt on the greedflation theory.
Economists at the SF Fed found that corporate price gouging was not a primary catalyst for the inflation surge of 2021 to 2022.
The Fed researchers did find that some companies exercised pricing power by raising prices above their production costs – a gap known as markups.
For instance, markups spiked for gasoline, cars and other goods in 2021. Likewise, there were increased markups for repair, general merchandise, laundry, personal care and other services, according to the Fed.

‘Not unusual’
Of course, the inflation crisis was not limited to just a few key sectors. It was economy-wide. (The annual inflation rate fell slightly in April, but it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.)
When zooming out and looking at markups across the economy, the SF Fed economists found little evidence that price gouging was the main culprit.
“Aggregate markups – the more relevant measure for overall inflation – have stayed essentially flat since the start of the recovery,” the paper concluded. “Rising markups have not been a main driver of the recent surge and subsequent decline in inflation during the current recovery.”
In fact, the SF Fed found that the path of collective markups over the past three years “is not unusual compared with previous recoveries.”

‘It angers them and angers me’
This runs counters to the argument from some progressives including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who for years has refocused the inflation argument on corporate greed.
“Right now prices are up at the pump, at the supermarket, and online. At the same time, energy companies, grocery companies, and online retailers are reporting record profits,” Warren said in December 2021. “That’s not simply a pandemic issue. It’s not simply some inevitable economic force of nature. It’s greed—and in some cases, it is flatly illegal.”
More recently, President Joe Biden has called out corporate greed as a reason prices remain high.
“If you take a look at what people have, they have the money to spend. It angers them and angers me that you have to spend more,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett, pointing to the shrinking size of Snickers bars and other food products. “It’s like 20% less for the same price. That’s corporate greed. That’s corporate greed. And we have got to deal with it. And that’s what I’m working on.”
In February, Biden said there are “still too many corporations in America ripping people off. Price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation.”
“America – we’re tired of being played for suckers!” Biden said.
Although the paper did not directly mention corporate greed, shrinkflation or Biden, the research undercuts the argument that greedflation drove the early inflation.
White House spokesperson Jeremy Edwards told CNN in a statement that the study supports Biden’s argument that “record profits are increasing inflation in some sectors, such as gas and general merchandise.”
“These markups should have reversed as we recovered from the pandemic—the fact that they haven’t means prices can come down if corporate profits come back to earth,” Edwards said. “President Biden has repeatedly called on large corporations to pass their record profits along to their customers by lowering prices. And he is taking on corporate rip-offs like hidden junk fees that costs families billions of dollars a year. The President will continue to call out corporate rip-offs and fight to keep money in Americans’ pockets.”

‘Looking for scapegoats’
The debate comes as inflation remains a major frustration for Americans – and a significant political liability for Biden ahead of the November election. Consumer sentiment, a metric closely tracked by the White House, unexpectedly tumbled to a six-month low at the start of May. It was the biggest one-month drop in nearly three years, a deterioration driven in part by concerns about inflation and interest rates.
Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, said the White House is “desperate to blame someone or something for inflation.”
“Blaming greedy corporations is just looking for scapegoats,” Valliere told CNN. “There’s no prescriptions here that would have a major impact quickly, other than the Fed reluctantly raising interest rates – an option that, incredibly, isn’t out of the question.”
Many economists blame the recent inflation surge on more traditional factors, namely higher production costs linked to swings in demand and Covid-era supply trouble.
To be sure, inflation has improved dramatically over the past two years.
After peaking at 9% in June 2022, annual inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) has eased to the low-to-mid 3% range.

Rate cuts delayed
However, progress in the inflation fight has stalled recently and the last three months of data have shown prices increased by more than expected. And inflation remains well above the 2% targeted by the Federal Reserve. The so-called final mile of returning inflation back to normal has proven to be difficult.
This situation has prevented the Fed from giving Americans a break from elevated borrowing costs, which remain at two-decade highs.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that it “looks like it will take longer for us to become confident that inflation is coming down to 2% over time.”
Although the SF Fed report pokes holes in the greedflation argument, other research has been more mixed.
For instance, progressive advocacy group Groundwork Collaborative recently argued that corporate profits drove 53% of inflation during the second and third quarters of 2023. That report found corporate profits were to blame for 34% of inflation since the start of Covid-19.
“There’s a reason most Americans blame corporate greed for high prices, and it’s because they know price-gouging when they see it,” Caroline Ciccone, president of progressive watchdog group Accountable.US, said in a statement. “It simply doesn’t add up when corporations enjoying record profits, enriching investors and giving their CEOs huge bonuses claim creeping price hikes were out of their control. They could have passed some success onto consumers in the form of stable and reasonable prices, but many chose to profiteer again and again.”
Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that corporate profits contributed 41% to inflation during the first two years of the Covid recovery.
However, that same Kansas City Fed paper noted that this is not unusual and corporate profits contributed even more (59% on average) to inflation during prior economic recoveries.

The CNN article cties three studies, one from the San Francisco Fed, one from the Kansas Fed and the last from a Progressive think tank.

The Kansas City study doesn't dispel greedflation at all because it states "corporate profits contributed a lot to inflation in 2021 but not much in 2022". The study literally says that "the amount of inflation generated early in a recovery may be a useful signal of future cost growth and subsequent inflation". The study is basically that from historical persepectives, whats happened isnt unusual but that doesnt mean that price gouging contributing to inflation isnt a thing. Basically, their findings are mixed (and the CNN article says as much).

I don't know why you called Greedflation a progressive myth when the actual research is being interpreted in different ways. It's at best a contentious topic that's still being discussed and studied,

[hyped78]

The CNN article cties three studies, one from the San Francisco Fed, one from the Kansas Fed and the last from a Progressive think tank.

The Kansas City study doesn't dispel greedflation at all because it states "corporate profits contributed a lot to inflation in 2021 but not much in 2022". The study literally says that "the amount of inflation generated early in a recovery may be a useful signal of future cost growth and subsequent inflation". The study is basically that from historical persepectives, whats happened isnt unusual but that doesnt mean that price gouging contributing to inflation isnt a thing. Basically, their findings are mixed (and the CNN article says as much).

I don't know why you called Greedflation a progressive myth when the actual research is being interpreted in different ways. It's at best a contentious topic that's still being discussed and studied,

I don't think you're getting the point. Price gouging ALWAYS contributes to inflation during recovery cycles, it's an inflation multiplier - sometimes it contributes more, sometimes it contributes less. Both the SF and KC Fed papers mention this - and this is common knowledge when studying Monetary Economics.

That having been said, the Kansas City paper clearly states that in this recovery cycle (2021-22), the total contribution of price gouging to inflation wasn't an anomaly in the post pandemic cycle - but the rate of inflation was certain an anomaly, a record! The full KC paper is here (it's a short read, both this one and the SF Fed papers are quick reads): https://www.kansascityfed.org/resear...ittle-in-2022/

"This pattern also appears consistent with previous economic recoveries. The idea that firms are forward-looking when setting prices is not specific to the post-pandemic recovery."
"The contribution of corporate profits appears not only consistent with prior recessions, but also proportionate."

And the important part:
"Although inflation has been atypically high during the recovery from the pandemic, the contribution of corporate profits to inflation has not been unprecedented. Our findings support the theory that firms set prices based on current as well as future production costs, which explains the contribution of corporate profits to inflation both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic."
"Perhaps surprisingly, corporate profits actually contributed less to inflation during the first two years of the pandemic recovery compared with the historical average (41 percent versus 59 percent, respectively)."

In other words: corporate profits/ price gouging were less of a factor, relatively speaking, when explaining post Covid inflation, versus what it usually explains whenever recovery drives inflation.


"It's at best a contentious topic that's still being discussed and studied" - a contentious topic that's still being discussed and studied, when the President himself has already said it's the corporations' fault?

[Kirby101]

Well, at least one majoe European supermarket chain sees it as Greedflation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ve/ar-AA1mIlzo

Once the items sell out, the supermarket chain will no longer be restocking them. The decision comes after the chain reportedly argued with suppliers repeatedly, over the ever-rising cost of these US products. In September, Carrefour started a “shrinkflation campaign,” adding notes on products that had shrunk in size but cost more, even as inflation and the cost of raw materials has eased.

In bold is apparent to anyone with eyes.