Originally Posted by
Mister Mets
Trump ran for a major party nomination and consistently led in the polls.
That said, Trump's first big entry into politics was an effort for the Reform Party nomination in 2000, although that seems to have been a strategy to damage the party and help the Republicans.
I think RFK may take more votes from Trump, just because the people who want serious politicians are going to stick with Biden if these are the choices.
Biden would be significantly more threatened by Joe Manchin, and maybe even Mitt Romney.
Oddly the people I'm coming up with are all in their 70s. Younger serious Democrats with bipartisan cred (John Fetterman, Jared Polis, David Shapiro) are not going to torch their reputations by taking votes from Biden. Tulsi Gabbard has switched to backing Trump, and I do think she represents a potential threat as a running mate.
As a moderate (ish) Republican (which I figure is more of a willingness to back some Democrats over flawed Republicans rather than where you late from the left to right) improving the party is a question I think about.
Parties tend to bounce back more because the other side screwed up, rather than their internal improvements. In presidential elections, it often helps to have candidates who aren't part of the old guard.
The biggest equivalent to Trump might be Nixon as a deeply flawed corrupt President whose career ended in embarrassment. Republicans lost in 1976, but won four years later thanks to double-digit inflation, double-digit employment, the Iran hostage crisis and the once in a generation political talent of Ronald Reagan.
Democrats bounced back after three straight election losses with Bill Clinton, a young centrist Governor.
Wave elections tend to hurt moderates because they're more likely to be running in swing elections (recent exceptions include Hershel Walker and Kari Lake which may explain their losses.)
Party control is also based on Congressional elections. Republicans have some advantages in Senate races that make it likely they'll take control at some point soon, and the House has bounced back and forth since 2006.