So...What’s Your Guess About When All These Marvel Movies ACTUALLY Launch

As we know, COVID-19 has delayed virtually every Hollywood release over the next three to four months and delayed production on countless others. [B]Marvel[/B] has not been invulnerable either. I know that a lot of how much these movies are effected is based on the timeline of how long it takes to get this virus relatively under control. But, since all we have is speculation, when do you think these new MCU shows and movies, as well as the MCU-adjacent [B]Sony[/B] stuff, actually comes out?

Here’s my guess, for what it is worth:

One of the optimistic scenarios is that we peak (hopefully with a relatively low peak) towards the end of April and that we experience a come down of cases and an easing of social distancing after May. The hope is that after a month of easing out of social distancing, we could see movie theaters get back to relative strength. So, based on this (because I’m an eternal optimist), I think the new slate will look like this:

[I]Black Widow[/I] will launch on any one of a number of dates—July 3rd (booting [I]Free Guy[/I]), July 24th (booting [I]Jungle Cruise[/I]), July 30th (taking the day vacated by [I]Morbius[/I], and likely what its original release date was prior to the James Gunn stuff), or September 7th. I left out August, because [B]Warner Bros.[/B] has claimed pretty much all of August by placing [I]Wonder Woman 1984[/I] right in the middle of it and I’d guess both studios would like to keep a distance of two weeks between films.

After that, I do think we have [I]Falcon and the Winter Soldier[/I], but I think it launches sometime in late September as a result of production delays (which seem to be relatively minimal). This was a show that I think was originally supposed to come out in August sometime so this would make sense for an approximate two month delay if production gets back up in June (as expected in this optimistic scenario).

Given principal photography of [I]Venom 2[/I] has been completed and [B]Deadline[/B] says the film is still on track for its October release, I think an optimistic scenario still sees it making that date. It will be the only [B]Sony[/B]/[B]Marvel[/B] release of the year given [I]Morbius[/I]’ postponement to 2021.

Under this scenario, I don’t think we would see a delay in [I]The Eternals[/I]. Principal photography has concluded and reshoots might be able to happen as scheduled in the late summer so post-production can continue unaffected. So I still think this movie makes its November 6 release date as long as we are able to meet the expectations in this optimistic scenario.

Unfortunately, [I]WandaVision[/I] also had a production delay. If it picks back up in June, it would likely experience a similar delay to [I]Falcon and the Winter Soldier[/I]. Given what we heard about its release likely being in December, it seems likely we are going to see this one towards the end of January of 2021. Which leads us to the next [B]Disney+[/B] show...

[I]Loki[/I]’s production was also delayed. However, it seems [I]Loki[/I] was supposed to release at the end of [I]WandaVision[/I] anyhow. I suspect that will continue to be the circumstances around its release and it will release relatively close to [I]WandaVision[/I]’s finale in early March.

[I]Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings[/I] is yet another film that got delayed in production. As a result, it looks like its initial February release will have to be postponed. I think there are two likely dates for it. One is where [I]Morbius[/I] currently sits on March 19, 2021, assuming that the film is still tracking relatively well despite its delay. Though, it could end up taking the first weekend of April of 2021, releasing April 2nd. This would put it three weeks from [I]Fast 9[/I] and two weeks from [I]Morbius[/I]. Of course, should [I]Shang-Chi[/I] be forced to move...

I think [I]Morbius[/I] moves up again to February 12, 2021, given that it will be a finished product ready to go out the door. It is always beneficial to put it on a long weekend and I expect [B]Sony[/B] to capitalize on it should [I]Shang-Chi[/I] (I think it is more a matter of when than if) move.

[I]Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness[/I], as of right now, is on track to begin principal photography in June with pre-production being done remotely. Should this optimistic prediction hold, I would anticipate that [I]Doctor Strange[/I] will be able to [I]just[/I] make its May 1, 2021 release. However, should it suffer even a bit from a delay, we could be looking at a long-term move.

[I]Spider-Man 3[/I] is said to start filming in July. Again, this would be right on track for release in the optimistic case. However, I think [I]Spider-Man 3[/I] is in a unique position in that most of its competitors around it will likely have to delay. [I]The Batman[/I] had its production delayed and it is now an open question whether or not it will hit its June 25, 2021 release. [I]Mission Impossible 7[/I] had to suspend production earlier than others because they were filming in Italy, putting its July 23, 2021 release in jeopardy. And [I]Indiana Jones 5[/I] can’t catch a break and likely can’t start production on time, making its July 9th release questionable. If I had to guess, I would guess [I]Spider-Man 3[/I] at least moves up to July 9th, if not closer to the 4th of July and enjoy having the month relatively to itself. There is no way [B]Sony[/B] doesn’t move heaven and earth to get this movie out in 2021 though—one way or another.

Meanwhile, it looks like all future films in development stages are likely going to be able to hit their respective release dates barring shenagains that have other releases be pushed into their dates. [I]Thor: Love and Thunder[/I] isn’t scheduled to begin principal photography until late summer or autumn and that remains the same for many of the other [B]Disney+[/B] shows. So I assume that, in this optimistic scenario, things remain relatively the same, with a few things shifting.

While I think theaters will get back up to strength eventually, I don't know as it will happen until a vaccine is out there and working. Unless we get lucky and one of these drugs they're testing turns out to be a reliable cure. Sitting in a theater for 3 hours shoulder to shoulder with coughing, sneezing strangers might be a hard sell even if we have a soft re-opening or two between now and then.

I think 2021 will be the biggest year for blockbuster movies we've ever seen. If the studios are smart they will get together and make a promotion out of it.

Sitting in a theatre with a bunch of coughing strangers is going to be pretty intolerable for a while to come. I'm wondering if theatre will be an even more boutique experience now, with seats farther apart and higher ticket prices, after this is all over.

As soon as Disney has bought the corona virus, made a vaccin and sold it to us for 700 bucks a pop then, only then Mickey is going to allow us the privilege to enjoy the entertainment that in his wisdom he has created for us.

And we all shall be thankful.

[QUOTE=AndrewCrossett;4914288]While I think theaters will get back up to strength eventually, I don't know as it will happen until a vaccine is out there and working. Unless we get lucky and one of these drugs they're testing turns out to be a reliable cure. Sitting in a theater for 3 hours shoulder to shoulder with coughing, sneezing strangers might be a hard sell even if we have a soft re-opening or two between now and then.

I think 2021 will be the biggest year for blockbuster movies we've ever seen. If the studios are smart they will get together and make a promotion out of it.[/QUOTE]

Obviously a lot of this rests on our response, but I think if we are good at keeping a testing apparatus in place, ensuring paid sick leave is guaranteed for the disease, and treatment is available in sufficient quantity (all of which are not currently taking place at sufficient levels) people will feel comfortable engaging with the public and doing “normal” things again. I think that can happen as early as July. Plus, a great number of films have moved out. So folks that might sit it out this season might not have a big impact on movies that [I]do[/I] open as they will have less competition since studios have been cautious about gearing up marketing campaigns for films if they can’t be assured of opening in their dates. I think movies removed from the schedule with largely complete marketing campaigns can be expected to open in that window from July to September.

[QUOTE=TheDarman;4914498]Obviously a lot of this rests on our response, but I think if we are good at keeping a testing apparatus in place, ensuring paid sick leave is guaranteed for the disease, and treatment is available in sufficient quantity (all of which are not currently taking place at sufficient levels) people will feel comfortable engaging with the public and doing “normal” things again. I think that can happen as early as July.[/QUOTE]

I think a lot of stuff could be open again by summer... regular stores, people back in their offices, etc. But crowded movie theaters might be a step too far while Captain Trips is still a threat.

6 months to 3 years is what I've been told.

While it probably isn’t the best time to be getting a poll of people’s opinions (given we haven’t even peaked yet in most countries and certainly not the U.S.), [URL="https://variety.com/2020/biz/news/coronavirus-movie-theaters-concert-venue-attendance-drop-study-1203550489/"]it looks like consumers will likely be cautious for a number of months even after the CDC indicates that it is safe to return to daily life.[/URL]

So...I’m updating my guess to [I]Black Widow[/I] launching in the September window, likely two to three months after the CDC eases its social distancing guidelines and theaters reopen. Productions, meanwhile, will likely resume earlier as other workplaces get back to normal in the post-June window. While I would assume that people are likely not going to be [I]as[/I] cautious as they are stating here, it is safe to assume that this trend will persist in some form past the easing of government restrictions.

So, looks like the MCU release schedule has just moved back a release slot up through [I]Black Panther II[/I]. [I]Thor: Love and Thunder[/I] bumped an untitled release which was probably going to be a third [I]Ant-Man[/I] movie. Given that [B]Disney[/B] is probably more keen to put out [I]Blade[/I] and [I]Deadpool[/I] films, I’d imagine the hardest hit film from these quarterly shifts is gonna be [I]Ant-Man 3[/I]. Noticeably absent from these moves is [I]Spider-Man 3[/I]. This is, of course, because [B]Sony[/B] controls the distribution of the film. I am curious to see if Sony tries to press on to the July 16th release. It could also take the spot recently vacated by [I]Indiana Jones 5[/I] on July 9th, but that depends on whether or not we see a production delay for the film, which could still be in the cards (but it was looking at a July start date so they have a little time to determine whether or not production needs to shift).

For me it's gonna come down to the specific movie & when I'm convinced that this thing is in the past. Gotta admit Godzilla VS KK is one I most want to see in the theater.