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I think it is a lot more simple than the way we are framing this debate. The truth is that both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have brands in the political process. They have become household names and people like the both of them. We'll see if there are any break outs in the latter months following some debates and the like to differentiate the candidates. I think we can probably see Harris and Warren break away from the pack to be more competitive with Sanders and Biden. That's probably the four-way race that I see happening in the next few months.
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Biden and Sanders have name recognition. More so than any other Dem candidate.
It's also May of 2019. Still lots of time before the first vote in the primary is cast.
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[QUOTE=Kevinroc;4365541]Biden and Sanders have name recognition. More so than any other Dem candidate.
It's also May of 2019. Still lots of time before the first vote in the primary is cast.[/QUOTE]
I agree with this, anyone focusing on the polls overmuch at this stage is doing themselves a disservice.
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Nobody really knew who Obama was in May.
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[QUOTE=BeastieRunner;4365596]Nobody really knew who Obama was in May.[/QUOTE]
He was down nearly 15 points underneath Clinton in that same period. And she was the only big name candidate at the time. We have two big name candidates in the race right now. Harris, for her part, is down by around the same margin underneath Sanders. There is still plenty of time left for both her and another candidate to break out big. Plus, Biden has largely been able to trend on his friendship with Obama. It'll be more difficult for him, I figure, when he keeps talking about how he has no sympathy for the younger generation and the like. Candidates like Harris and Warren have the charisma and the policies to back up their positions. Both Sanders and Biden have been continuously vague about their positions. And Sanders had, at one point, even said that there were too many people getting "hung up" on social issues like abortion when we should've focused on things that unite us (like economic issues). This is shaping up to be a primary cycle more consumed with social policy issues than economic ones--not when unemployment is so low and the only real damage being done to the economy is stuff that the president is actively in charge of, like trade.
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[QUOTE=Zetsubou;4365624]And most of the voters have never heard of Bill Clinton before the elections. Clinton ran against a sitting president and won.
Everyone has heard of Hillary Clinton, the former First Lady of the U.S., a senator and secretary of state. And yet they voted for trump.[/QUOTE]
More people voted for Clinton. And you cannot say Trump was an unknown name. He had as much name recognition and as studies have shown, got much more News coverage than Clinton.
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[QUOTE=WestPhillyPunisher;4365137]I'd say it's a liability only to Sanders if he continues supporting the NRA which is a serious nonstarter to Democrat voters.
I'm surprised Trump is being quiet about his wanting to veer SCOTUS hard right since being subtle isn't his strong suit.
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[URL="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-threatens-iran-twitter_n_5ce1c3d6e4b00735a919333c"]Trump Threatens ‘Official End Of Iran’ If It Wants To Fight[/URL]
The president’s warning comes amid escalating tensions between the two nations. The Leader of the Free World openly threatened another nation, and cowardly Republicans in Congress looked the other way. Fucking shameful!
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[URL="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-fox-news-coverage-democrats_n_5ce1e1d4e4b00735a9194b15"]Trump Says Fox News Is Moving To ‘Losing’ Side By Covering Democrats[/URL]
The president claimed the outlet was making the wrong move by giving airtime to his opponents. To be honest, I wonder why Faux News did that too. I mean, it's not like they're "fair and balanced', that much is common knowledge.
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[URL="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chick-fil-a-anti-lgbtq-higher-calling_n_5ce1ad1ae4b00e035b9258e2"]Chick-fil-A Executive Calls Supporting Anti-LGBTQ Organizations A ‘Higher Calling’[/URL]
The fast-food company has continued to donate hundreds of thousands of dollars to anti-LGBTQ groups despite backlash. I used to enjoy dining at Chick-fil-a, but not anymore. Their homophobic policies are nothing short of repugnant.
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[URL="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/stop-the-bans-abortion-protests_n_5cdf8acce4b09e05780422da"]Wave Of Protests Planned For Tuesday Over State Abortion Bans[/URL]
The Women’s March, Planned Parenthood and other groups are staging nationwide actions against the new “heartbeat” laws and Alabama’s abortion ban.
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[URL="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/uss-florida-rape-lists_n_5ce08991e4b09e057805214b"]Navy Submarine Sailors Kept ‘Rape’ Lists Of Female Colleagues, Military Probe Finds[/URL]
One woman told investigators the lists made “her question all males on the boat.” As a Navy veteran (1976-1996), this disgusts me no end.[/QUOTE]
Here's why FOX News has Democratic candidates on. They have them on a live show like FOX News Sunday and let them have their say with Chris Wallace to make themselves look "fair and balanced." Then on Monday night or Tuesday night, they'll show an edited version of the Democrat's remarks on Hannity's show or Ingraham's show, in order to make the Democrat look foolish and/or evil.
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[QUOTE=Zetsubou;4365624]And most of the voters have never heard of Bill Clinton before the elections. Clinton ran against a sitting president and won.[/QUOTE]
In a three-way race during a recession.
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[QUOTE=Tuck;4365720]In a three-way race during a recession.[/QUOTE]
After quitting only to rejoin the race there was no reasonable way for Perot to win. That shook many people's confidence in his ability to stand up to the pressures of the presidency.
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[QUOTE=Tami;4364806][URL="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/28/us/politics/trump-anthony-kennedy-retirement.html"]Inside the White House’s Quiet Campaign to Create a Supreme Court Opening[/URL][/QUOTE]
This would be why Mitch McConnell has been so quiet about Trumps relationship with Putin and the Mueller investigation. Trump helps him ram through the Judges he wants and in return it's "case closed."
Instead of winning back Congress, Democrats should've worried more about the Senate. If RBG is forced to retire while Trump is in the White House we'll have another conservative judge rammed down our throats and it won't matter who wins the election in 2020.
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[QUOTE=Tendrin;4365295]I saw it said best on twitter: Biden is running the campaign that people accused Hillary of running.
That said, do not underestimate the general fondness people have for Biden. It's a really potent weapon.[/QUOTE]
I noticed that all those Sanders supporters stopped bringing up the argument that the most popular politician in the country should be the candidate ever since pollsters have stopped leaving out Biden from the poll, and he turned out more popular than Sanders.
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[QUOTE=SquirrelMan;4365756]I noticed that all those Sanders supporters stopped bringing up the argument that the most popular politician in the country should be the candidate ever since pollsters have stopped leaving out Biden from the poll, and he turned out more popular than Sanders.[/QUOTE]
Not in this thread specifically, but many of them are into the "made up polls" theory. Could be true, I have no idea.
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[QUOTE=Dalak;4365742]After quitting only to rejoin the race there was no reasonable way for Perot to win. That shook many people's confidence in his ability to stand up to the pressures of the presidency.[/QUOTE]
He was never going to win. But he changed the dynamic of the race in ways that can't necessarily be measured . . . even if he never re-entered the race.
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[QUOTE=Kirby101;4365519]I am not supporting Biden. I am trying to explain why he is ahead with the Dem rank and file. It's all about beating Trump. "Those people" you talk about, whho voted for Trump in 2016 over those issues, obviously don't have the mental capacity to understand real solutions to those problems. So a they might think a Centrist like Biden, who does talk to blue collar voters, might be what is needed.[/QUOTE]
I think the next few months are going to be really interesting to see if Biden can really win back those working Obama voters who took a chance on Trump. Some had buyers remorse immediately, but others are looking at those job numbers and are satisfied. That's why I think Joe's got to do better than, "Climate Change? Phooey! I hate Trump and you millenials get the eff off my lawn!"
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Can we talk about how Trump, a President in the 21st century, actively threatened to genocide a nation?