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[QUOTE=daBronzeBomma;4817263]The Academy all-too-often loves a "wait your turn" style of professional recognition.
See: Al Pacino winning for SCENT OF A WOMAN, when he should have won for THE GODFATHER PART II.
See also: Denzel Washington winning for TRAINING DAY, when he should have won for MALCOLM X.
Phoenix has been nominated for acting Oscars before, right? Then it may in fact be "his turn" now.
FWIW, I see JOKER winning Best Actor, and two other more technical awards like Best Sound or Best Sound Mixing or something.
I'm sticking with 3 wins out of 11 noms for JOKER.[/QUOTE]
I won't be surprised if there is an upset with best actor with Antonio Banderas.
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It'll win Best Actor and Best Score. I personally don't agree with either, I'd give it to Adam Driver and Thomas Newman, but oh well. That's the way it will fall.
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[QUOTE=Beaddle;4817409]I won't be surprised if there is an upset with best actor with Antonio Banderas.[/QUOTE]
Anything is possible. But even people who hated the Joker say Joaquin Phoenix was amazing in it. I think Phoenix winning best actor is the closest to a sure thing but if anyone upsets him I feel like Adam Driver is 2nd in line. Personaly I'd have Adam Sandler as the person who could upset him but he didnt get a Nom. He woulda had the the wow factor on his side. People expect these kinda performances from Phoenix. Adam Sandler is bunching way out of his league. Though hes shown throughout his career if he stars in someone else's movie he can be a very good dramatic actor. The appearances in those movies is few and far between.
But who knows but yea if I was a betting man I'd put it all on Phoenix.
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Phoenix should be a lock for King of Comedy/Falling Down.
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[QUOTE=Midvillian1322;4822647]But even people who hated the Joker say Joaquin Phoenix was amazing in it. I think Phoenix winning best actor is the closest to a sure thing but if anyone upsets him I feel like Adam Driver is 2nd in line. [/QUOTE]
The things Phoenix has against him:
- it's a superhero film (in the eyes of voters)
- it's already won an Oscar for that role. TO MY KNOWLEDGE Don Corleone is the only role to win an Oscar twice. This is the same things that could upset Greta Gerwig's Oscar for adapting [I]Little Women[/I]... it's already won that Oscar before in 1934, for the Katherine Hepburn film.
- Phoenix might have upset some people about his BAFTA speech, and maybe the Oscars don't want to leave themselves open to the same criticism (now they know it's coming)
Adam Driver is up-and-coming. And every year has a surprise. I think it will be this (1917 is going to win Best Picture).
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[QUOTE=Kieran_Frost;4824214]The things Phoenix has against him:
- it's a superhero film (in the eyes of voters)
- it's already won an Oscar for that role. TO MY KNOWLEDGE Don Corleone is the only role to win an Oscar twice. This is the same things that could upset Greta Gerwig's Oscar for adapting [I]Little Women[/I]... it's already won that Oscar before in 1934, for the Katherine Hepburn film.
- Phoenix might have upset some people about his BAFTA speech, and maybe the Oscars don't want to leave themselves open to the same criticism (now they know it's coming)
Adam Driver is up-and-coming. And every year has a surprise. [B]I think it will be this (1917 is going to win Best Picture).[/B][/QUOTE]
Everything I've heard indicates that it deserves it.
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[QUOTE=WebLurker;4824477]Everything I've heard indicates that it deserves it.[/QUOTE]
It absolutely does; it's an utter masterpiece. My point was badly phrased, I meant "I don't think the upset will be Parasite winning Best Picture". I think it will be Best Actor. Just a hunch, could be very wrong.
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[QUOTE=Kieran_Frost;4820895]It'll win Best Actor and Best Score. I personally don't agree with either, I'd give it to Adam Driver and Thomas Newman, but oh well. That's the way it will fall.[/QUOTE]
Adam Driver was so damn good. Phoenix was definitely good as well, but I think it's a situation where he's going to get credit for doing the most acting, while Driver played a much more interesting, subtle character. The big fight scene at the end of Act 2 had me chuckling until I realized I was in tears. That's acting.
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While I didnt care for The Joker movie myself I am very happy it has done so well and has the chance to get a ton of awards. I am always happy when A comic book movie does well. Makes it more likely that more will be made.
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[QUOTE=C_Miller;4825064]Adam Driver was so damn good. Phoenix was definitely good as well, but I think it's a situation where he's going to get credit for doing the most acting, while Driver played a much more interesting, subtle character. The big fight scene at the end of Act 2 had me chuckling until I realized I was in tears. That's acting.[/QUOTE]
That is EXACTLY how I feel. Phoenix did a great job, but it's such a great role. How much is the performer and how much is the character? Let's be honest, there have been so many good Jokers, it's clearly a character that lends itself to that. And the whole film is built around Phoenix (to the point nearly everyone else is 2D); Driver exists in a full realised world and feels just as whole and truthful, without as much attention.
I'd give it to Driver, personally. What he did was harder.
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Alright, final bets before the Oscars go live at 8 PM EST tonight!
My "ballot" ...
[B]3 wins total:
1. Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
2. Best Sound Editing
3. Best Sound Mixing[/b]
Final answer.
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Refresh for updates if you are not watching.
[url]https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/oscars/oscars-winners-list-updating******/ar-BBZOO4F?ocid=spartandhp[/url]
So far--
lost adapted screenplay to jojo rabbit
lost costume to little women
Lost sound editing to ford v ferrari
Lost sound mixing to 1917
Lost cinematography to 1917
Lost film editing to ford v Ferrari
lost Makeup and hairstyle to bombshell
Joker wins Original score
Lost director to Parasite
Wins best actor.
Loses best picture to Parasite
Update as it goes.
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Honestly Joker should win one or 2 awards. If the film gets swept a number of people will say its being blacklisted due to the whole drama over it and all. That the industry was ashamed of it getting nominations and wants to sweep it away.
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Has four more chances to win. Only one more "small" award it's in left then the three big ones.
Edit--It won one!
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Late to the party but anybody who thought it would win much more than Best Actor were kidding themeslves.