The War of 2019 : MCU's CAPTAIN MARVEL vs DCEU's SHAZAM!

[Comic-Reader Lad]

Captain marvel only has 150 million budget which generally means they aren't looking for crazy returns but they do have decent marketing push so they want do a little better than Antman and Wasp.

I worry more about Shazam which could feel to cheesy for adult audience but it should do solid as either Superhero movie or family movie. Shazam has more flop potential and Captain Marvel has I am going to see "Avengers Endgame" okay I have to see this movie before that let me see it once.

I'm not getting that vibe at all about Shazam. I don't think it has flop potential in the slightest. People seem buzzed to see it.

The trailer looked fun, so it's tonally consistent with Aquaman. I actually think it's pretty much the perfect movie to be the follow up.

I do agree that Captain Marvel is at best a "see it once" type movie. I think it has really nothing to do with Endgame except that Sam Jackson said that Captain Marvel can/will time travel, so that explains how she can appear in Endgame without aging.

I predict that Captain Marvel's appearance in Endgame will be a dramatic splash (kind of like when Thor arrived in Wakanda to face Thanos), giving her a notable heroic moment (like Wonder Woman in BvS), and be more talked about than her own movie.

It might have been a better strategy to release her solo movie AFTER Endgame to capitalize on that like Warners did with Wonder Woman.

[Killerbee911]

I'm not getting that vibe at all about Shazam. I don't think it has flop potential in the slightest. People seem buzzed to see it.

The trailer looked fun, so it's tonally consistent with Aquaman. I actually think it's pretty much the perfect movie to be the follow up.

I do agree that Captain Marvel is at best a "see it once" type movie. I think it has really nothing to do with Endgame except that Sam Jackson said that Captain Marvel can/will time travel, so that explains how she can appear in Endgame without aging.

I predict that Captain Marvel's appearance in Endgame will be a dramatic splash (kind of like when Thor arrived in Wakanda to face Thanos), giving her a notable heroic moment (like Wonder Woman in BvS), and be more talked about than her own movie.

It might have been a better strategy to release her solo movie AFTER Endgame to capitalize on that like Warners did with Wonder Woman.

I didn't say Shazam is going to flop, I said it has the higher potential to flop. All the films people like pick on Marvel for being "bad" Avengers 2(made a billion), Iron Man 3(made a billion) Thor Raganok(853 million) Thor Dark World(644 million) still made crazy money. Between the two movies Shazam has more potential to flop. It is character that has been tricky to get right in the comics and getting the right tone in the comics has been hard. So It is very possible some of the issue that hold back in comics can hurt in the big screen. That said I think it finds audience either with superhero fans or as a family film so it won't flop but there is scenario for Shazam where people expecting superhero film that feels like it suppose to be for kids and turning off adults which is a nightmare scenario. The nightmare scenario for Captain Marvel is a huge drop off after the opening week quite honestly. I think both movies are going to do at solid neither looks bad enough to flop

[MsAngel]

Shazam looks like a massive crowd pleaser, so if it gets good reviews or at least pleases audiences, it'll be a success.

Captain Marvel looks like a middle of the rode movie with nothing interesting outside of returns for MCU enthusiasts (Coulson, Ronan, not-eye-patch Fury). It will probably do okay do to Endgame, but I don't expect anything more than maybe 700 million, personally. It just looks so boring and by the numbers. CGI doesn't impress me either. Hopefully it's better in the movie proper. As it stands, I have no interest in seeing it and can't wait for the marketing for it to be over.

[trooper_thorn]

I get the idea that the same people that avoided Ghostbusters may avoid Captain Marvel and that could ultimately hurt the Captain Marvel box office.

I disagree somewhat.

What killed GB came down to three things:

1) It was a remake of a film beloved both by critics and fans; people are wary of remakes of good films since they usually pale in comparison
2) The Secret Life of Pets, which opened shortly afterwards, was a far larger success than anybody predicted and ended up getting most of family viewers Sony was banking on
3) Sony went full bore on controversy as marketing which put off a lot of fans


One and two aren't applicable here and as for three, well Disney has gone out it's way to avoid controversy. Yeah they're similarly pushing the "girl power" schtick but they aren't doing so by saying that the people critical of the trailers/lead actress are sexist. Really the only "controversy" related stuff that I've seen with any regularity stems from issues related to Larson herself and even that's been fairly muted as of late.



Nah, I think the biggest threat to this is that people seem somewhat blasé about it compared to other major Marvel stuff and if word of mouth is mediocre/bad it could hurt its overall take. It'll still be a hit (it's all but guaranteed of getting over $700m), I just don't think that worldwide sales will be shattering any records.

[Wandering_Wand]

I'll have to look into these supposed controversial opinions surrounding Brie Larson. I admittedly don't know much about her but I've seen some things mentioned that she takes a fairly aggressive approach on social media, etc. towards certain cultural elements floating around today (please note: big disclaimer, I am not and will not engage in any political arguments, hence my vague wording on what I've been hearing about her).

[Jim Kelly]

There's less riding on SHAZAM! It could flop, but that's not going to hurt Warner and the DC movies. It could have, if AQUAMAN had done poorly. Then the story of DC movies all being bad would have gained even more traction. But now Warner can afford to have a loser. But I think the positive buzz from AQUAMAN will help SHAZAM! And it probably has a much smaller budget so it doesn't need to make as much money to be a success.

CAPTAIN MARVEL almost certainly won't fail at the box office. It's a Disney Marvel movie, it has vital info for ENDGAME and it comes out just before that movie. It could underperform and it could come under attack from critics and fans, but it won't be a flop. What Marvel has riding on CM is something indefinable--they need to make her into an icon on the level of Wonder Woman and Black Panther. They very likely won't get there and she will be a failure in that sense.

[Colossus1980]

I remember the topic debate of who will win the Winter box office opening weekend came up and using the YouTube views Aquaman lead by quite a margin. CM has 49M and Shazam only has 26M. CM has the benefit of Endgame association but there seems to be a lot of lackluster enthusiasm after the trailers. I can see it beating Shazam though.

[Osiris-Rex]

I disagree somewhat.

What killed GB came down to three things:

1) It was a remake of a film beloved both by critics and fans; people are wary of remakes of good films since they usually pale in comparison
2) The Secret Life of Pets, which opened shortly afterwards, was a far larger success than anybody predicted and ended up getting most of family viewers Sony was banking on
3) Sony went full bore on controversy as marketing which put off a lot of fans


One and two aren't applicable here and as for three, well Disney has gone out it's way to avoid controversy. Yeah they're similarly pushing the "girl power" schtick but they aren't doing so by saying that the people critical of the trailers/lead actress are sexist. Really the only "controversy" related stuff that I've seen with any regularity stems from issues related to Larson herself and even that's been fairly muted as of late.



Nah, I think the biggest threat to this is that people seem somewhat blasé about it compared to other major Marvel stuff and if word of mouth is mediocre/bad it could hurt its overall take. It'll still be a hit (it's all but guaranteed of getting over $700m), I just don't think that worldwide sales will be shattering any records.

I was referring to 3). There seem to be a lot of people put off by things Brie Larson has been saying. And Bob Igor recently trolled people about Captain Marvel. Also a lot of people are put off by the idea CM is going to be the most
powerful character in the MCU and save everybody. Defeat Thanos. They think it should be a male character that does that. There are a lot of hard core boys only people out there. They were okay with Wonder Woman because
WW was never billed as being superior to Superman or even the rest of the Justice League. But a lot of them regard CM as a Mary Sue.
2) might also apply because Avengers: Endgame comes out a little more than a month later and that is going to suck up a lot of the box office dollars. Plus there are people on a limited budget that may just wait for Avengers: Endgame.

[Comic-Reader Lad]

I was referring to 3). There seem to be a lot of people put off by things Brie Larson has been saying. And Bob Igor recently trolled people about Captain Marvel. Also a lot of people are put off by the idea CM is going to be the most
powerful character in the MCU and save everybody. Defeat Thanos. They think it should be a male character that does that. There are a lot of hard core boys only people out there. They were okay with Wonder Woman because
WW was never billed as being superior to Superman or even the rest of the Justice League. But a lot of them regard CM as a Mary Sue.
2) might also apply because Avengers: Endgame comes out a little more than a month later and that is going to suck up a lot of the box office dollars. Plus there are people on a limited budget that may just wait for Avengers: Endgame.

Well, a lot of the Internet comments regarding Captain Marvel are just fear and rumor. In other words, standard operating procedure for the Internet.

From a business standpoint, it kind of does make sense to give an important, and maybe even crucial role, to Captain Marvel in Avengers: Endgame because the MCU will likely lose Iron Man and Captain America as the actors are moving on -- certainly Evans is. The way Thor has been set up in the MCU, he doesn't fit the Captain America icon type that Marvel-Earth needs, and maybe Captain Marvel is being groomed to do just that.

Endgame is the end of Phase III, so I would expect some kind of passing of the torch to take place. With Samuel L. Jackson's contract up as well, Carol could fit into both the Captain America and Nick Fury roles for future movies.

However, it is important that Avengers Endgame sets this up properly so that the audience doesn't think of Carol as some Mary Sue intruder who came out of nowhere, stole the movie from its rightful stars (i.e. the actors who have been there for 10 years), and becomes the lead character in the MCU simply due to Feige fiat. I hope the movie has her earn her status believably.

[AJBopp]

Shazam looks like a massive crowd pleaser, so if it gets good reviews or at least pleases audiences, it'll be a success.

Captain Marvel looks like a middle of the rode movie with nothing interesting outside of returns for MCU enthusiasts (Coulson, Ronan, not-eye-patch Fury). It will probably do okay do to Endgame, but I don't expect anything more than maybe 700 million, personally. It just looks so boring and by the numbers. CGI doesn't impress me either.

There is an inherent danger in projecting one's own feelings onto the general audience. I was guilty of doing that with Aquaman. There is no evidence to suggest that these statements are generally true.

Nah, I think the biggest threat to this is that people seem somewhat blasé about it compared to other major Marvel stuff

See above.

It has vital info for ENDGAME and it comes out just before that movie.

I know of no information to support this statement. My suspicion is that it will have no reference to Endgame beyond an end-credits scene.

What Marvel has riding on CM is something indefinable--they need to make her into an icon on the level of Wonder Woman and Black Panther.

Why does Marvel need to do this? Why would the success of this movie or this character hinge on this?

There seem to be a lot of people put off by things Brie Larson has been saying. And Bob Igor recently trolled people about Captain Marvel. Also a lot of people are put off by the idea CM is going to be the most powerful character in the MCU and save everybody. Defeat Thanos. They think it should be a male character that does that. There are a lot of hard core boys only people out there. They were okay with Wonder Woman because WW was never billed as being superior to Superman or even the rest of the Justice League. But a lot of them regard CM as a Mary Sue.

There are some people here and in places like here who fit this mold. Captain Marvel's YouTube hits suggest this is not generally true, however. There is no indication this is the general impression of Captain Marvel, the character or the movie.

[trooper_thorn]

See above.

I may be completely out of touch on this and it could make $2 billion and break all the records making Captain Marvel the most popular character to ever exist, but I doubt it.


Let me put it another way. Disney was so worried about the reaction to the first two trailers that they went out of their way to try and please critics with the third. That's not something you do if the reaction is where you want it.

Once more, I am not saying this movie will bomb (quite the opposite). All I'm saying is that the reaction to it has been below my expectations. Even the boosters seem to be banking more on its proximity to End Game than it's likely quality.

[choptop]

I disagree somewhat.

What killed GB came down to three things:

1) It was a remake of a film beloved both by critics and fans; people are wary of remakes of good films since they usually pale in comparison
2) The Secret Life of Pets, which opened shortly afterwards, was a far larger success than anybody predicted and ended up getting most of family viewers Sony was banking on
3) Sony went full bore on controversy as marketing which put off a lot of fans


One and two aren't applicable here and as for three, well Disney has gone out it's way to avoid controversy. Yeah they're similarly pushing the "girl power" schtick but they aren't doing so by saying that the people critical of the trailers/lead actress are sexist. Really the only "controversy" related stuff that I've seen with any regularity stems from issues related to Larson herself and even that's been fairly muted as of late.



Nah, I think the biggest threat to this is that people seem somewhat blasé about it compared to other major Marvel stuff and if word of mouth is mediocre/bad it could hurt its overall take. It'll still be a hit (it's all but guaranteed of getting over $700m), I just don't think that worldwide sales will be shattering any records.

Don't forget the biggest problem with GB it just wasn't very good.....

[AJBopp]

I may be completely out of touch on this and it could make $2 billion and break all the records making Captain Marvel the most popular character to ever exist, but I doubt it.

I think an estimate of $700-$800 million is about right myself. But there's nothing so far to suggest there isn't enormous interest in this film.

[Jim Kelly]

The problem for CAPTAIN MARVEL and SHAZAM! is they don't have a lot of runway. So even if they have big weekends and do well in China, they don't have a lot of time to accumulate more money week after week--as with WONDER WOMAN, BLACK PANTHER and AQUAMAN--because other big movies will be landing soon to take the attention away from them.

[Osiris-Rex]

The problem for CAPTAIN MARVEL and SHAZAM! is they don't have a lot of runway. So even if they have big weekends and do well in China, they don't have a lot of time to accumulate more money week after week--as with WONDER WOMAN, BLACK PANTHER and AQUAMAN--because other big movies will be landing soon to take the attention away from them.

I'm not sure anyone expected Shazam to make a lot of money and it doesn't really matter to the DCEU unless it is a total flop. While the MCU is pinning all their hopes on Captain Marvel as the future of the MCU.
The new face of the MCU now that Iron Man and Captain America are being phased out. So if Captain Marvel under performs it might be a serious problem for the MCU moving forward and might require rethinking
future MCU movies.