After Fox merges, what happens?

[Heeroyuy_Batman]

After Fox merges with Disney (which unless something changes seems likely to get government approval soon), what happens next? What will companies like Comcast, Viacom, Netflix, et cetera do to compete? Will any media companies go defunct?

My personal opinion is Comcast will try to buy Viacom or Netflix since they won't be able to get Fox. They might seek some smaller companies as well, but to compete with Disney they need the kind of scale that only certain companies can give. A Verizon/Comcast merger attempt may not be out of the question either. I'm not sure regulators would allow it, but it might be in the interests of both companies to merge together. If Verizon doesn't go after Comcast, they might try to buy National Amusements or they may just go after CBS and/or Viacom as individual companies. Because AT&T now owns WarnerMedia, Verizon needs a media company with some scale to compete. Smaller companies like Sony, CBS, Lionsgate, MGM, AMC Networks, and even Viacom will need to either attach themselves to larger companies or merge together to compete with Disney, Comcast, AT&T, and Netflix. AT&T's WarnerMedia may try to buy MGM because they already own MGM's pre-1986 library and MGM would give them more scale to compete with Disney and Comcast. While a CBS/Viacom remerger seem less and less likely, CBS may still try to acquire Paramount and Nickelodeon from Viacom.

Disney will probably be required to sell off some of the properties it gets from Fox to be able to get government approval of the merger. Additionally, Disney may want to use some of the IPs it gets from Fox to make deals to get full rights to Spider-Man, Incredible Hulk, and other Marvel characters with rights issues and tie-ups or to make deals to acquire potentially lucrative franchises like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. In the five to ten years, Disney may need to make another medium to large size acquisition, but for the time being, I'm only expecting smaller ones. The largest acquisition Disney may try to make is The Jim Henson Company because of various links to that company.

[Derek Metaltron]

The big question is what happens to Fox’s more grown up viable franchises like Aliens. Avatar I assume will adapt nicely to Disney’s streaming service.

[Hiromi]

Hasn't Disney said they intend to keep the Fox brand alive and use it for the more adult franchises?

[AJBopp]

There's a pretty massive assumption here that Disney will come out on top in this. Given Comcast's latest stupid bid, it's not at all clear that Disney won't sit back and let shareholders decide on what Disney will view as the smart bid vs the get rich quick bid.

But supposing Disney does win for a moment...

I see the whole thing falling apart pretty quickly. Disney is going to launch a streaming service that want's to compete with Netflix but will probably compete with CBS All Access instead. While Disney hasn't put a lot of actual cash on the line, they have nevertheless put well over half their worth into this deal, and in order to continue to operate some sort of global corporation, they're going to need capital. How can they get it? The most obvious way is to start selling or leasing stuff. Netflix may soon find itself the home of franchises Disney doesn't want on it's service, like Alien. Sony may end up with Die Hard.

Redundant jobs will be cut as two studios become one, but that will be like plugging a cork in a cask when it's leaking through every stave. More jobs will be cut, the people that remain will grow increasingly unhappy and wary of their own security. Disney will find itself too bulky to respond to quickly-changing markets, and with too little influence, despite the prominence of its franchises, to drive the markets toward it's own best interests. Eventually Disney will split up, perhaps into separate companies, and this could ultimately further fracture the Marvel Universe rather than unite it.

While there are some examples of these sorts of mergers working, things on this scale almost never go well. It all hinges on Disney being able to make billions on a streaming service at a time when every basement jockey with a decent phone is trying to make a streaming YouTube channel. It's a business model that they've never tried and almost certainly doesn't understand. it's a business that changes quickly with new content, and Disney is relying on getting a foothold in it with largely old content. I don't give Disney more than seven years trying to sustain this doomed-from-the-start model.

https://www.cnet.com/news/why-mergers-fail/

[Hiromi]

There's a pretty massive assumption here that Disney will come out on top in this. Given Comcast's latest stupid bid, it's not at all clear that Disney won't sit back and let shareholders decide on what Disney will view as the smart bid vs the get rich quick bid.

But supposing Disney does win for a moment...

Not that massive since Fox already chose Disney's bid
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/foxf...an-disney.html

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Well to examine a few things....


- 21st Century Fox/Disney : This deal will give Disney an older studio with a library of films that date back to the 1930's. They are getting a pedigree studio that has name value. Disney's last few studios they had for adult fare (PG-13/R) were either pushed towards being closed and revived to just distribute (Touchstone films) or was sold in 2010 (Miramax). 21st Century Fox will allow Disney to put more adult projects there or comic book films that are gonna be geared more adult style like Deadpool , X-Force , Wolverine and others that can be placed there.



Streaming on Various services : The biggest loser from this is Comcast. They needed a majority stake in Hulu and to grow themselves as a streaming entity. That is where things are going and Disney just utterly hurt them. People have said that Comcast could make negotiations harder on Disney and they could. But Disney will have the 21st Century Fox film and TV library to handle any issues. Also with no real streaming alternative (Beyond XFinity) the company is in a tough spot. Cable itself is slipping and losing Hulu would be a blow.

Disney meanwhile will be in the captains seat. They can place the 21st Century fox films onto Hulu as its claimed they plan to do. They then can turn their attention to creating a Disney streaming service . Which they have to be looking at what WWE Network (1+ million subscribers) and Britbox (in a year 350,000+ subscribers) are doing. So while its a gamble they could end up with 2 streaming services there. (There is a rumor they will do an ESPN streaming service too...)

[Immortal Weapon]

ESPN is getting a streaming service. They signed a major deal with UFC to provide content for it.

[numberthirty]

ESPN is getting a streaming service. They signed a major deal with UFC to provide content for it.

At this point, they'd have to be dumb not to.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Well today Disney and Fox got approval by regulators for this merger.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/27/us-s...-fox-deal.html


They have to sell 22 regional sports networks so expect that to happen once the deal gets fully voted on.

[titanfan]

ESPN is getting a streaming service. They signed a major deal with UFC to provide content for it.

It's already there. (ESPN+). Don't have a lot right now. But only $5 a month. I would gladly pay more if they had more of it's network offerings.

[Midvillian1322]

Well to examine a few things....


- 21st Century Fox/Disney : This deal will give Disney an older studio with a library of films that date back to the 1930's. They are getting a pedigree studio that has name value. Disney's last few studios they had for adult fare (PG-13/R) were either pushed towards being closed and revived to just distribute (Touchstone films) or was sold in 2010 (Miramax). 21st Century Fox will allow Disney to put more adult projects there or comic book films that are gonna be geared more adult style like Deadpool , X-Force , Wolverine and others that can be placed there.



Streaming on Various services : The biggest loser from this is Comcast. They needed a majority stake in Hulu and to grow themselves as a streaming entity. That is where things are going and Disney just utterly hurt them. People have said that Comcast could make negotiations harder on Disney and they could. But Disney will have the 21st Century Fox film and TV library to handle any issues. Also with no real streaming alternative (Beyond XFinity) the company is in a tough spot. Cable itself is slipping and losing Hulu would be a blow.

Disney meanwhile will be in the captains seat. They can place the 21st Century fox films onto Hulu as its claimed they plan to do. They then can turn their attention to creating a Disney streaming service . Which they have to be looking at what WWE Network (1+ million subscribers) and Britbox (in a year 350,000+ subscribers) are doing. So while its a gamble they could end up with 2 streaming services there. (There is a rumor they will do an ESPN streaming service too...)

So 21st century fox remains open as is just under Disneys umbrella and the network channel becomes New fox and airs News and Wrestling?

[SUPERECWFAN1]

So 21st century fox remains open as is just under Disneys umbrella and the network channel becomes New fox and airs News and Wrestling?

And some TV series ...like Simpsons and more. I mean they aren't gonna totally go away from scripted and animated tv shows. But New Fox will be answering to Disney for those shows and elsewhere. Fox News , Fox Sports will still exist. They aren't selling those.

[Midvillian1322]

And some TV series ...like Simpsons and more. I mean they aren't gonna totally go away from scripted and animated tv shows. But New Fox will be answering to Disney for those shows and elsewhere. Fox News , Fox Sports will still exist. They aren't selling those.

So does New Fox have to pay Disney to air Simpsons now or is part of the deal they get to keep airing Shows they sold to Disney?

[SUPERECWFAN1]

So does New Fox have to pay Disney to air Simpsons now or is part of the deal they get to keep airing Shows they sold to Disney?

No idea how it will work out for them after everything is done. But I suspect they'll have a clause to keep the show around at a good rate to air it.

[Midvillian1322]

No idea how it will work out for them after everything is done. But I suspect they'll have a clause to keep the show around at a good rate to air it.

Ok makes sense anyway. Thanks appreciate the info