Is Star Wars imploding?

[Anthony W]

One flop, and the knives come out. Here is the link https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/...imploding.aspx
This little tidbit from the article was interesting.

"Fighting the fans
The old adage that "the customer is always right" is a simplification, but at the very least, it's probably not a good idea to take a hostile stance towards some of your franchise's biggest fans. That's especially true when series enthusiasts have played such a big role in sustaining the property's cultural cachet over the last 40 years.

Even Mark Hamill, the actor who portrays Luke Skywalker, voiced dissatisfaction with his character's progression in The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. Shockingly, the actor did so during numerous press appearances promoting the films -- behavior that's pretty much unheard of, because media events are meant to present projects in the best possible light.

It seems like Disney proceeded with the expectation that the core Star Wars audience would show up for its new movies no matter what, and that it could instead focus on broadening the appeal of the franchise. On the other hand, an entry like The Last Jedi seemed to take a more overt political position at a time when polarization is running high, and that issue appears to have been exacerbated by interactions between people involved with the franchise and social-media users."

[BeastieRunner]

I've seen this argument during the Special Edition era and the Prequel era.

Star Wars will be fine.

And at worst, Solo barely made out ahead.

I guess you could call that a flop if your expectation was that every SW movie will be the #1 all-time every time.

[Minerboh]

We will find out in 2019 (when the last movie of the sequel trilogy is released) how much damage The Last Jedi actually did.

[thwhtGuardian]

I'm pretty sure I read a book like that article when I was a kid...something about the sky is falling? How'd that book end?

[Anthony W]

I've seen this argument during the Special Edition era and the Prequel era.

Star Wars will be fine.

And at worst, Solo barely made out ahead.

I guess you could call that a flop if your expectation was that every SW movie will be the #1 all-time every time.

Star Wars will be okay, but Solo was a flop. We can admit that Star Wars is going to be okay without twisting ourselves into knots for Solo.

[Sacred Knight]

Nah. The only thing that could make me concerned about its staying power would be if IX really underperformed. THAT would be an eyeopener. Solo was a project that was in various degrees of trouble from day one.

[ClanAskani]

We will find out in 2019 (when the last movie of the sequel trilogy is released) how much damage The Last Jedi actually did.

It's not just Episode IX in 2019 - there will be two tv shows (one live action, one animated) and the Star Wars theme parks. Disney has a lot of money invested in Star Wars. There's still going to be crazy Star Wars fans wanting to go to a theme park, but the tv shows could have issues with fans not caring about the events before TFA.

Likely before TLJ, Lucasfilm thought fans would go crazy for any little clue about who Snoke is or an appearance of Phasma. Boba Fett and Palpatine were killed off in the OT and fans still wanted to see more of them. But after TLJ, is there the same demand?

[MASTER-OF-SUPRISE]

Honestly I think Solo not doing well has more to due with the MCU and it's troubled production history than with TLJ backlash. Not that it isn't a factor. I just think the MCU and and Infinity War has much more to do with the sales. Not to mention Deadpool 2. Which I still need to see.

@ClanAskani: There might not be a big demand with how badly they were falsely promoted. The big problem is they were promoted to have major parts only for that to not be the case. I suppose you could argue Snoke at least played a pretty big part.

[choptop]

Solo barely made out ahead.

It's not ahead at all it's still in the red.

[ClanAskani]

@ClanAskani: There might not be a big demand with how badly they were falsely promoted. The big problem is they were promoted to have major parts only for that to not be the case. I suppose you could argue Snoke at least played a pretty big part.

Lucasfilm massively miscalculated how much demand there is to see backstory and how things happened. The appeal of seeing how Han met Chewie or how Han got the Falcon isn't enough that even hardcore fans went to the theater to see Solo. It certainly didn't convince kids who like the ST to go see Solo.

When Last Jedi came out, what I didn't understand was how people at Lucasfilm (not Kathy Kennedy, but story group members like Pablo Hiladago or Kiri Hart) didn't see all of the attention Snoke and Rey's parents theory were getting that it would build up false expectations. Pablo could have put something in the Last Jedi Visual Dictionary that gave clues about Snoke and set expectations that Last Jedi wouldn't answer questions about Snoke. Instead he baited fans about Snoke theories.

I think they thought all of the interest in fan theories and speculation about backstory meant they could churn out tv shows, books and Star Wars stories movies. They didn't think killing Snoke would kill off interest in who he was (since that didn't happen with Palpatine or Boba Fett) and that may be a large percentage of their model moving forward that they will need to rethink now that Solo failed.

Having Dan & Dave from Game of Thrones involved may help Lucasfilm realize that fans thought there was a larger story that they were getting clues about sprinkled through movies, tv and books - Jyn Erso is Rey's mom, Ezra is DJ, Rey is a Skywalker/Solo/Kenobi/Palpatine, etc. But the idea of they're making it up as they go takes away the allure of the backstory. Game of Thrones/ASOIAF fandom wouldn't care about speculation as much as they do if they didn't think GRRM already had the story in place and left clues throughout the books.

Game of Thrones already had material from books and the MCU can take years and years worth of comics and form them into a story. Lucasfilm doesn't want to use Legions so they can't do the same thing. And just putting in little hints about who Snoke is isn't going to be enough to get casual fans to watch a tv show or pay to see Snoke: A Star Wars Story. It's got to actually be good and compelling. And already Ant-Man 2's box office estimates are going up because MCU fans are expected to go to see any little clues about what might happen in Avengers 4. That's not the same as a backstory movie revealing who Snoke is, or how Rey's nobody parents ended up on Jakku or how Han got his dice.

[ChrisIII]

I've seen this argument during the Special Edition era and the Prequel era.

Star Wars will be fine.

And at worst, Solo barely made out ahead.

I guess you could call that a flop if your expectation was that every SW movie will be the #1 all-time every time.

Yeah, I remember 2012 kind of being a 'dark time' as well, with TPM 3D,Lucas retiring and no sign of a sale, and although "Clone Wars" was still going, there were no signs of the promised TV show, and all we had upcoming were some of the EU (Which seemed to be running a little short on ideas at that point) and the 1313 game (Which admittingly, was a loss)....and of course the awful-looking Detours.

Then October rolled around....


There were also the sort of wilderness years of 1986-1991, where pretty much everything Star Wars pretty much dried up (The cartoons, Ewok movies, Marvel comics and even the toy line were gone), with the exception of a so-so 3D comic series that only lasted 3 issues and the paper and pen RPG. By then Lucas's focus had largely shifted to Indiana Jones as well with the Last Crusade and TV show, as well as other (Not as well received) productions like Willow, Howard The Duck, Tucker etc.

It's debatable I think whether the revival of the EU/merchandising in '91 led to the 90's comeback, or Lucas decided to revisit the series after seeing what ILM did with Jurassic Park.

[Moon Ronin]

isn't going to be enough to get casual fans to watch a tv show or pay to see Snoke: A Star Wars Story.

It's casual fans, not the hardcore fans that makes the film franchises money. I think one of the reasons (among many) Solo did not do so great is because most people thought they already knew what the movie was gonna be.. so might as well go watch Deadpool 2. The movie should have been centered around Qi'ra or Beckett with Han being a surprise like Leia in Rogue One that would have been something different and maybe more successful.

With Rey and Snoke, Abrams true to his form created a mystery around the two and TLJ really didn't play off that... along with many other things it failed to connect with TFA. This was a let down to many and the end of TLJ did not leave me personally looking forward to watching up coming star wars movies. I'm not alone in that feeling which would be another reason (among many) Solo did not do so great. For the record I did go see Solo and enjoyed it very much.

As for Star Wars imploding? Not yet. But with what seems as a lack of any planed direction or connected continuity between the movies it may be possible that it is on it's way to do so.

[Username taken]

Star Wars isn't imploding.

One severely troubled production and flop does not implosion make.

[Gray Lensman]

Lucasfilm massively miscalculated how much demand there is to see backstory and how things happened. The appeal of seeing how Han met Chewie or how Han got the Falcon isn't enough that even hardcore fans went to the theater to see Solo. It certainly didn't convince kids who like the ST to go see Solo.

When Last Jedi came out, what I didn't understand was how people at Lucasfilm (not Kathy Kennedy, but story group members like Pablo Hiladago or Kiri Hart) didn't see all of the attention Snoke and Rey's parents theory were getting that it would build up false expectations. Pablo could have put something in the Last Jedi Visual Dictionary that gave clues about Snoke and set expectations that Last Jedi wouldn't answer questions about Snoke. Instead he baited fans about Snoke theories.

I think they thought all of the interest in fan theories and speculation about backstory meant they could churn out tv shows, books and Star Wars stories movies. They didn't think killing Snoke would kill off interest in who he was (since that didn't happen with Palpatine or Boba Fett) and that may be a large percentage of their model moving forward that they will need to rethink now that Solo failed.

Having Dan & Dave from Game of Thrones involved may help Lucasfilm realize that fans thought there was a larger story that they were getting clues about sprinkled through movies, tv and books - Jyn Erso is Rey's mom, Ezra is DJ, Rey is a Skywalker/Solo/Kenobi/Palpatine, etc. But the idea of they're making it up as they go takes away the allure of the backstory. Game of Thrones/ASOIAF fandom wouldn't care about speculation as much as they do if they didn't think GRRM already had the story in place and left clues throughout the books.

Game of Thrones already had material from books and the MCU can take years and years worth of comics and form them into a story. Lucasfilm doesn't want to use Legions so they can't do the same thing. And just putting in little hints about who Snoke is isn't going to be enough to get casual fans to watch a tv show or pay to see Snoke: A Star Wars Story. It's got to actually be good and compelling. And already Ant-Man 2's box office estimates are going up because MCU fans are expected to go to see any little clues about what might happen in Avengers 4. That's not the same as a backstory movie revealing who Snoke is, or how Rey's nobody parents ended up on Jakku or how Han got his dice.

With Solo the extensive reshoots had a serious effect on the cost of the film. Throw in the incredible negative publicity coupled with releasing it at the worst possible time and you have enough to cause a box office failure without adding anything else to the mix, like the lackluster marketing (maybe that's where the reshoot money came from) and lingering distaste by a portion of the moviegoing public over The Last Jedi.

[ClanAskani]

With Solo the extensive reshoots had a serious effect on the cost of the film. Throw in the incredible negative publicity coupled with releasing it at the worst possible time and you have enough to cause a box office failure without adding anything else to the mix, like the lackluster marketing (maybe that's where the reshoot money came from) and lingering distaste by a portion of the moviegoing public over The Last Jedi.

The fundamental issue remains with Solo that the draw of a backstory isn't that strong. And that's happened over and over with movies. There isn't forward movement. The end of the story is pretty much known and it's only the details. While that's the same for historical event films (the audience knows the Titantic sinks), there's less rush to see Solo since the characters are at any risk. Everyone knows Han and Chewie don't die. He and Qi'ra don't get together. You can watch it on Redbox or Netflix since it's not that compelling of a story.

The first Ant-Man movie made less at the US box office than Solo but still got a sequel because it cost less to make and make more overseas. The success or failure of Solo would have been different without the reshoots, but it doesn't change the problem that audiences aren't as compelled to go to the theaters to see flashback/origin story movies and Star Wars' upward momentum has stalled out. Both casual and hardcore fans aren't blindly telling Lucasfilm to take their money.

The Lucasfilm Story Group likely thought they had a goldmine when some Snoke fan theory videos on YouTube had 8 Million views. More people were watching fan theory Star Wars YouTube videos than trailers for other studios' movies. If these types of movies or tv shows are pitched to Disney execs, they aren't going to buy the idea that Star Wars fans are going to show up opening weekend to see some origin story of Snoke or flashback explaining what happened to Obi-Wan between ROTS and ANH.

Remember the offical Disney response to the Last Jedi backlash was this quote from Disney president of theatrical distribution Dave Hollis: "That makes this a Star Wars film like audiences have never seen -- it's got people talking, puzzling over its mysteries, and it's a lot to take in, and we see that as all positive, that should help set the film up for great word-of-mouth and repeat viewing as we enter the lucrative holiday period."

Puzzling over what mysteries? All the mysteries were destroyed and theory videos were replaced with "everything wrong with" type videos. Repeat viewing was down considerably so the idea controversy sells tickets didn't hold true.

This is what imploded with The Last Jedi. The momentum is gone. Casual fans feel like they wasted their time because no one at Lucasfilm has any idea who Snoke is and Lucasfilm is waiting for dozens of screenwriters, tv writers and novelists to come up with what happened between ROTJ and TFA because they don't want to limit the possible movies, tv shows, novels, comics and games from every little tidbit of information fans they assumed would be desperate for.

But the Sequel trilogy isn't Game of Thrones - a mystery to figure out from a writer who has placed in little clues. It's not the MCU where there's an architect of the story. Star Wars is being made up as they go and trying to flesh out every little bit of previous history to sell tickets to Star Wars fans they assumed would buy anything with Star Wars on it. That fallacy is over.

That's where the backlash after TLJ differs from the Prequels. During the prequels, toys were still selling huge. Video games sales were fantastic. Even kids' books like the Jedi apprentice books were huge sellers. Fans were complaining about how much they hated the Prequels, but Lucasfilm was making massive profits selling merchandise to those complainers. Now the video games are a mess, book sales are down, comic sales are down and Hasbro's Star Wars sales are in the toilet.