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  1. #121
    Incredible Member ClanAskani's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiderClops View Post
    That's the point of the article, I think.
    With the clickbait title "5 Classic Movies Everybody Hated When They First Came Out", certainly everyone didn't hate Empire Strikes Back.

    What I think people would be surprised is the level of hatred directed towards The Last Jedi among people who had been Star Wars fans.

    Quote Originally Posted by WebLurker View Post
    The "backlash" seems to be more along the lines of "a small faction used the intent as a microphone and have been dominating the conversation." Case in point, most credible sources polling viewer reactions show the movie was favorably received (not to mention that box office and home media sales were extremely good). Besides, not every "hardcore" fan rejected it; I, for one, thought it was this generations ESB.
    The box office for TLJ was disappointing for Disney. Presale ticket sales carried the opening weekend and even much of December many tickets were sold for Christmas and even New Years Eve before the movie was even released). The multiplier was far lower than Disney anticipated based on the opening weekend.

    The fact that Jumanji was able to beat TLJ for so many weekends was utterly embarrassing to Disney (and the fact they had to re-expand Coco to make up for TLJ losing so many theaters is just sad). And it's just encouraged other studios to directly challenge Star Wars. Sony isn't even seeing Episode IX as a threat. They are putting three movies up against it rather than giving it a wide unchallenged window.

    As for home video, blu ray sales are down considerably compared to TFA. There's been a lot of articles and YouTube videos about sales figures from The-Numbers.com, which are a little deceptive since they are retail sales and heavily driven by Walmart. Disney isn't giving deep discounts to Walmart, so all Disney blu ray sales numbers are down.

    Where Disney is hurting is merchandise sales being down considerably. Hasbro's licencing agreement is up in 2020 and that's going to be interesting to see how they renegotiate - especially with the potential of many Star Wars films with no existing characters (if Rian Johnson's trilogy being used). Hasbro isn't going to pay the kind of licence fee they currently are to make toys that may never sell.

    Disney exec want to see upward momentum for their franchises. TLJ took all of the momentum that had been built up with TFA and Rogue One and sent Star Wars plummiting back to earth.
    Last edited by ClanAskani; 07-21-2018 at 03:50 PM.

  2. #122
    Ultimate Member Sacred Knight's Avatar
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    No one who has paid attention since 1999 would be surprised that the reaction to TLJ was mixed. The Prequels got an even worse reaction. To suggest that this is new or surprising territory would be revisionist history, as its not even the worst case of fan backlash SW has seen.
    "They can be a great people Kal-El, they wish to be. They only lack the light to show the way. For this reason above all, their capacity for good, I have sent them you. My only son." - Jor-El

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by ClanAskani View Post
    The box office for TLJ was disappointing for Disney. Presale ticket sales carried the opening weekend and even much of December many tickets were sold for Christmas and even New Years Eve before the movie was even released). The multiplier was far lower than Disney anticipated based on the opening weekend.

    The fact that Jumanji was able to beat TLJ for so many weekends was utterly embarrassing to Disney (and the fact they had to re-expand Coco to make up for TLJ losing so many theaters is just sad). And it's just encouraged other studios to directly challenge Star Wars. Sony isn't even seeing Episode IX as a threat. They are putting three movies up against it rather than giving it a wide unchallenged window.
    TLJ was the highest-grossing movie of its year (and computed to be the most profitable of the year after the marketing investments were factored in), the second-biggest seller for the IMAX format, the second-highest grossing movie in the series (only surpassed by TFA, which was a juggernaut that over-performed by all metrics), reached the billion-dollar mark in 17 days (being the thirty-second movie made to join that exclusive club), and was the fifth-highest grossing movie world-wide of all time, and the ninth-highest grossing movie made period. TLJ was everything but a disappointment for Disney.

    Quote Originally Posted by ClanAskani View Post
    As for home video, blu ray sales are down considerably compared to TFA.
    Yeah? We knew that was going to happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by ClanAskani View Post
    There's been a lot of articles and YouTube videos about sales figures from The-Numbers.com, which are a little deceptive since they are retail sales and heavily driven by Walmart. Disney isn't giving deep discounts to Walmart, so all Disney blu ray sales numbers are down.
    From my (limited) experience, Target was heavily sold out a couple days after it hit shelves. As far as the overall market goes, I haven't had much success verifying much beyond TLJ being the top seller when it first came out. Make of that what you will.

    Quote Originally Posted by ClanAskani View Post
    Where Disney is hurting is merchandise sales being down considerably. Hasbro's licencing agreement is up in 2020 and that's going to be interesting to see how they renegotiate - especially with the potential of many Star Wars films with no existing characters (if Rian Johnson's trilogy being used). Hasbro isn't going to pay the kind of licence fee they currently are to make toys that may never sell.
    Making the New York Times Bestseller lists consistently counts for nothing anymore? As far as the toys go, is there any proof beyond anecdotal evidence to support this?

    Quote Originally Posted by ClanAskani View Post
    Disney exec want to see upward momentum for their franchises. TLJ took all of the momentum that had been built up with TFA and Rogue One and sent Star Wars plummiting back to earth.
    As pointed out above, TLJ continued the upward trend. Solo was the one, if anything, that has been a setback. Given though, that you can't just have ups and ups (to quote Peanuts), we knew this was going to happen sooner or later and the Powers That Be have taken the wakeup call and are addressing the problems. Disney Star Wars isn't in trouble yet and TLJ is not the failure that some people would like it to be.


    Quote Originally Posted by Sacred Knight View Post
    No one who has paid attention since 1999 would be surprised that the reaction to TLJ was mixed. The Prequels got an even worse reaction. To suggest that this is new or surprising territory would be revisionist history, as its not even the worst case of fan backlash SW has seen.
    Yeah. I think that, unlike the prequels, TLJ will have a better chance of outliving the controversy (although even the prequels are getting their own reevaluation and a more balanced assessment these days).
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  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by WebLurker View Post
    TLJ was the highest-grossing movie of its year (and computed to be the most profitable of the year after the marketing investments were factored in), the second-biggest seller for the IMAX format, the second-highest grossing movie in the series (only surpassed by TFA, which was a juggernaut that over-performed by all metrics), reached the billion-dollar mark in 17 days (being the thirty-second movie made to join that exclusive club), and was the fifth-highest grossing movie world-wide of all time, and the ninth-highest grossing movie made period. TLJ was everything but a disappointment for Disney.



    Yeah? We knew that was going to happen.



    From my (limited) experience, Target was heavily sold out a couple days after it hit shelves. As far as the overall market goes, I haven't had much success verifying much beyond TLJ being the top seller when it first came out. Make of that what you will.



    Making the New York Times Bestseller lists consistently counts for nothing anymore? As far as the toys go, is there any proof beyond anecdotal evidence to support this?



    As pointed out above, TLJ continued the upward trend. Solo was the one, if anything, that has been a setback. Given though, that you can't just have ups and ups (to quote Peanuts), we knew this was going to happen sooner or later and the Powers That Be have taken the wakeup call and are addressing the problems. Disney Star Wars isn't in trouble yet and TLJ is not the failure that some people would like it to be.




    Yeah. I think that, unlike the prequels, TLJ will have a better chance of outliving the controversy (although even the prequels are getting their own reevaluation and a more balanced assessment these days).
    The thing is, though, that we can't really go by the sales of The Last Jedi to show how well it really did since it was a Star Wars movie coming off of a movie that was very well received, if not critically then commercially. In addition, the only real criticism of The Force Awakens was that it was a rehash of A New Hope, hardly something akin to the character assassination of Luke Skywalker (the main criticism of The Last Jedi), one of the two faces of the Star Wars franchise. Also note that in addition to the Blu Ray sales being down, the merchandising sales are also down considerably. I think that the bombing of Solo was the real indication of how poorly The Last Jedi was received by audiences. Let me put in another example that I think fits in comparison.

    Take Paper Mario: Sticker Star and later, Paper Mario: Color Splash. Paper Mario: Sticker Star was not well-received by the gaming audience and those who loved the Paper Mario series (to put it mildly). However, the game still has gone on to sell 2.41 million copies (according to VGChartz). That is greater than the 2.26 million copies of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, widely believed to be the best of the Paper Mario games, or even the 1.38 million sold by the original Paper Mario (both figures coming from VGCharz again). Only Super Paper Mario has outsold it. However, when Paper Mario: Color Splash came around, Paper Mario fans spoke with their wallets. And boy did they ever. It still hasn't broken a million, sitting at .87 million (according to VGChartz). Now, there are some extenuating circumstances that can account for the sales of both games. The 3DS has sold better than the GameCube or the Wii U, but still. The games voiced their criticism of the direction of Paper Mario: Sticker Star by not buying Paper Mario: Color Splash when it looked too much like Paper Mario: Sticker Star. And I also believe that that was the main criticism of Paper Mario: Color Splash. Those that did play the game said that it was noticeably better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

    Now how does the above relate to Star Wars? Very closely, in my view. People liked The Force Awakens and lined up to see The Last Jedi. However, the Last Jedi disappointed fans and that was the reason for the major drop-off after the first week. Since many hardcore fans didn't like The Last Jedi, they refused to see Solo in protest. Now, I don't think Solo was going to make a billion since it was not a movie that fans were demanding to see, but I also don't think it was going to make less than 400 million, either. It's still Star Wars. The name Star Wars, alone, should strike fear into the hearts of other movie studios, causing them to give it a wide berth. That isn't happening anymore. And, of course, you have the aforementioned decline in Blu Ray sales and merchandising sales, which, to me, is really telling, in addition to Solo's underperformance. I think the real indicator will still be Episode IX. If they keep Luke Skywalker dead and don't give him a real reason for why he contemplated killing Ben Solo (such as Ben killing his wife and kids or something), or somehow bring him back (or both), I think you will see Episode IX underperform, possibly not even cracking a billion. Word of mouth from the first week will make or break this movie because I can see many fans staying home the first week to wait to hear what others think, or to just read the wiki on the movie and make the decision then. Of course, things will change, in my view, if the first preview either directly brings back Luke Skywalker, or says that the main plot of the movie is to do just that.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enterprise E View Post
    The thing is, though, that we can't really go by the sales of The Last Jedi to show how well it really did since it was a Star Wars movie coming off of a movie that was very well received, if not critically then commercially. In addition, the only real criticism of The Force Awakens was that it was a rehash of A New Hope, hardly something akin to the character assassination of Luke Skywalker (the main criticism of The Last Jedi), one of the two faces of the Star Wars franchise. Also note that in addition to the Blu Ray sales being down, the merchandising sales are also down considerably. I think that the bombing of Solo was the real indication of how poorly The Last Jedi was received by audiences. Let me put in another example that I think fits in comparison.

    Take Paper Mario: Sticker Star and later, Paper Mario: Color Splash. Paper Mario: Sticker Star was not well-received by the gaming audience and those who loved the Paper Mario series (to put it mildly). However, the game still has gone on to sell 2.41 million copies (according to VGChartz). That is greater than the 2.26 million copies of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, widely believed to be the best of the Paper Mario games, or even the 1.38 million sold by the original Paper Mario (both figures coming from VGCharz again). Only Super Paper Mario has outsold it. However, when Paper Mario: Color Splash came around, Paper Mario fans spoke with their wallets. And boy did they ever. It still hasn't broken a million, sitting at .87 million (according to VGChartz). Now, there are some extenuating circumstances that can account for the sales of both games. The 3DS has sold better than the GameCube or the Wii U, but still. The games voiced their criticism of the direction of Paper Mario: Sticker Star by not buying Paper Mario: Color Splash when it looked too much like Paper Mario: Sticker Star. And I also believe that that was the main criticism of Paper Mario: Color Splash. Those that did play the game said that it was noticeably better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

    Now how does the above relate to Star Wars? Very closely, in my view. People liked The Force Awakens and lined up to see The Last Jedi. However, the Last Jedi disappointed fans and that was the reason for the major drop-off after the first week. Since many hardcore fans didn't like The Last Jedi, they refused to see Solo in protest. Now, I don't think Solo was going to make a billion since it was not a movie that fans were demanding to see, but I also don't think it was going to make less than 400 million, either. It's still Star Wars. The name Star Wars, alone, should strike fear into the hearts of other movie studios, causing them to give it a wide berth. That isn't happening anymore. And, of course, you have the aforementioned decline in Blu Ray sales and merchandising sales, which, to me, is really telling, in addition to Solo's underperformance. I think the real indicator will still be Episode IX. If they keep Luke Skywalker dead and don't give him a real reason for why he contemplated killing Ben Solo (such as Ben killing his wife and kids or something), or somehow bring him back (or both), I think you will see Episode IX underperform, possibly not even cracking a billion. Word of mouth from the first week will make or break this movie because I can see many fans staying home the first week to wait to hear what others think, or to just read the wiki on the movie and make the decision then. Of course, things will change, in my view, if the first preview either directly brings back Luke Skywalker, or says that the main plot of the movie is to do just that.
    You're putting an awful lot of causal relationships between events that have no proven relationships.

    And bringing back Luke Skywalker and making a big deal about the previous film not really counting is a surefire way to make the mainstream audience (which is a good 95% of the audience) roll their eyes and go watch something else instead.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enterprise E View Post
    The thing is, though, that we can't really go by the sales of The Last Jedi to show how well it really did since it was a Star Wars movie coming off of a movie that was very well received, if not critically then commercially. In addition, the only real criticism of The Force Awakens was that it was a rehash of A New Hope, hardly something akin to the character assassination of Luke Skywalker (the main criticism of The Last Jedi), one of the two faces of the Star Wars franchise. Also note that in addition to the Blu Ray sales being down, the merchandising sales are also down considerably. I think that the bombing of Solo was the real indication of how poorly The Last Jedi was received by audiences. Let me put in another example that I think fits in comparison.

    Take Paper Mario: Sticker Star and later, Paper Mario: Color Splash. Paper Mario: Sticker Star was not well-received by the gaming audience and those who loved the Paper Mario series (to put it mildly). However, the game still has gone on to sell 2.41 million copies (according to VGChartz). That is greater than the 2.26 million copies of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, widely believed to be the best of the Paper Mario games, or even the 1.38 million sold by the original Paper Mario (both figures coming from VGCharz again). Only Super Paper Mario has outsold it. However, when Paper Mario: Color Splash came around, Paper Mario fans spoke with their wallets. And boy did they ever. It still hasn't broken a million, sitting at .87 million (according to VGChartz). Now, there are some extenuating circumstances that can account for the sales of both games. The 3DS has sold better than the GameCube or the Wii U, but still. The games voiced their criticism of the direction of Paper Mario: Sticker Star by not buying Paper Mario: Color Splash when it looked too much like Paper Mario: Sticker Star. And I also believe that that was the main criticism of Paper Mario: Color Splash. Those that did play the game said that it was noticeably better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star.

    Now how does the above relate to Star Wars? Very closely, in my view. People liked The Force Awakens and lined up to see The Last Jedi. However, the Last Jedi disappointed fans and that was the reason for the major drop-off after the first week. Since many hardcore fans didn't like The Last Jedi, they refused to see Solo in protest. Now, I don't think Solo was going to make a billion since it was not a movie that fans were demanding to see, but I also don't think it was going to make less than 400 million, either. It's still Star Wars. The name Star Wars, alone, should strike fear into the hearts of other movie studios, causing them to give it a wide berth. That isn't happening anymore. And, of course, you have the aforementioned decline in Blu Ray sales and merchandising sales, which, to me, is really telling, in addition to Solo's underperformance. I think the real indicator will still be Episode IX. If they keep Luke Skywalker dead and don't give him a real reason for why he contemplated killing Ben Solo (such as Ben killing his wife and kids or something), or somehow bring him back (or both), I think you will see Episode IX underperform, possibly not even cracking a billion. Word of mouth from the first week will make or break this movie because I can see many fans staying home the first week to wait to hear what others think, or to just read the wiki on the movie and make the decision then. Of course, things will change, in my view, if the first preview either directly brings back Luke Skywalker, or says that the main plot of the movie is to do just that.
    By that logic, wouldn't the people who went to see Force Awakens and then didn't go to see TLJ be voting with their wallets against the direction TFA went?

    I think it's easier to make such assumptions about tv shows than movies, especially when the movies are still doing so ridiculously well. People check out an episode, and if that episode sucks they won't want to stick around to see if it improves. That's part of why Enterprise couldn't be saved even after they'd made major improvements in the last 2 seasons. But with movies like this that have such a big hype train behind them, people show up. TLJ didn't have the hype of being the first numbered Star Wars movie in 10 years and being a movie that the world was told would never be made, and Solo had comparatively very little hype and was coming into a market that was starting to become saturated with Star Wars.

    I see Episode 9 falling between episodes 7 and 8 at the box office. The first movie of each trilogy always performed the best of that trilogy, and the middle movie always performed the worst, with the third falling between them. Empire grossed less than both ANH and ROTJ, Clones grossed less than the other prequels. And neither Jedi nor Sith could match ANH or TPM even though they outgrossed their immediate predecessors. There is currently no reason to think this time will be any different.

    Going by Box office Mojo: A New Hope made $307 million domestically during its original run. Empire Strikes Back fell to just $209 million, nearly $100 million less and dropping by about a third. Then Return of the Jedi partially bounced back with $252 million. With the prequels, Phantom Menace made $924 million worldwide. Attack of the Clones fell to about $650 million, again, about a third. And then Revenge of the Sith bounced back to $848 million. The drop from TFA to TLJ is from $2,068,223,624 to $1,332,539,889. That looks positively huge, but it also comes out to not much more than a third. And it's still the second highest grossing film in the franchise.
    Last edited by sunofdarkchild; 07-22-2018 at 08:34 AM.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by sunofdarkchild View Post
    By that logic, wouldn't the people who went to see Force Awakens and then didn't go to see TLJ be voting with their wallets against the direction TFA went?
    Not necessarily. The Force Awakens made a ton of money and the first weekend of The Last Jedi did very well, only a little behind The Force Awakens, if I remember correctly. The second week drop off, however, was far greater for The Last Jedi than it was for The Force Awakens. And there was also the backlash. There was something in The Last Jedi that fans didn't like, and that may have kept away some casual fans. Needless to say, a lot of people did not go back for second or third viewings, unlike with The Force Awakens. I know, I was one of those fans that saw The Force Awakens, and even Rogue One, multiple times, but only saw The Last Jedi once, and I haven't gone back to watch it again. While my final judgment on the movie is still pending, due to not knowing what Episode IX will be about yet, if they don't bring back Luke Skywalker or repair his character, I will not like The Last Jedi, and I will likely only see Episode IX once. As for other issues that clearly show that a lot of fans and viewers didn't like The Last Jedi, don't forget the decrease in Blu Ray sales and the decrease in merchandising sales in addition to Solo's underperformance to outright bombing, depending on who you listen to regarding its actual budget. Remember, Solo is the first Star Wars movie to lose money at theaters. The mystique of Star Wars is being lost and it all seems to have started with The Last Jedi since until then, Star Wars was one of the strongest IPs around. The fact that there are questions about Episode IX and the fact that studios are now willing to compete against Star Wars closely or even directly should be telling, and worrying for Disney and Lucasfilm.

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enterprise E View Post
    The thing is, though, that we can't really go by the sales of The Last Jedi to show how well it really did since it was a Star Wars movie coming off of a movie that was very well received, if not critically then commercially. In addition, the only real criticism of The Force Awakens was that it was a rehash of A New Hope, hardly something akin to the character assassination of Luke Skywalker (the main criticism of The Last Jedi), one of the two faces of the Star Wars franchise. Also note that in addition to the Blu Ray sales being down, the merchandising sales are also down considerably. I think that the bombing of Solo was the real indication of how poorly The Last Jedi was received by audiences.
    First of all, by most credible accounts, TLJ was well-received by viewers in general. That coupled with it being one of the highest-grossing movies of its year makes it hard to buy that it was as hated as the most angry haters would have you believe. Not sure about merchandise sales, given lack of info on my end. As far as Solo goes, I's pretty sure that it's poor box office takings was not in retaliation by TLJ; while some viewers no doubt did not see it because of TLJ, it had plenty of other problems (weak timing and advertising, for example) that had nothing to do with TLJ. Heck, the movie went way over-budget before getting into theaters. I think, even if it had been in a better place overall, that alone may've caused it to lose money even if it had been otherwise in the clear.

    Point is, I don't think the evidence points to TLJ being a badly-received movie on the whole, just that in this case those that dislike it have more of a platform to say what they think and the perfect storm of a followup movie that was a letdown to seemingly vindicate them. (To be honest, I kinda find the TLJ backlash to be a bit eye-rolling in terms of how much coverage it's received. We've been down this road before with the prequels and know that the franchise can survive a couple of poorly-received movies, that Star Wars fans can hate movies in the franchise that they don't like with extreme passion, and that things will go back to normal. Now, I will concede that the TLJ hate -- by which I mean the frothing at the mouth people who see TLJ as having raped their childhoods, not those who dislike the movie but can go through life living and let living with those who do -- seems to be nothing like what we saw with the prequels in terms of the craziness of the reactions and sherr

    If I seem a bit tense on the subject, I think that the conversation has become so hijacked by agenda pushers with illegitimate "criticism" (the Comicsgate-like people that want Star Wars to be the "white boys only" club it never was and dismiss anything that moves beyond that narrow demographic as being "SJW," "soy," "white genocide," "anti-male," etc, who think it's okay to cyberbully those involved in making the film, that sort of thing). That crap so dominates the conversation and puts those who favor the movie so on the offensive that the honest conversations of the movie's craftsmanship and medits (like if Luke's depiction in the movie was a fair creative decision or not in context of the series as a whole) get drowned out or unfairly dismissed as being "haters" (or vise versa, those to speak in favor of the movie get seen as blindly loyal "shills"). I think that's a shame. I loved the movie, but will concede that it's not flawless and being able to have those conversations allows us to have a better understanding. Maybe even change our perspectives on something (whether that be agreeing on a flaw in the movie being a weak point or finding something we didn't like has a way to be less offending to us).

    So, any time the question of how the franchise is doing under Disney's management, I get tense, since I think it's really easy to try and fit the data to support the notion that Star Wars is failing under Disney if one wants to be vindicated that they were "right" for not liking the direction of things. Vice versa, I think it's really easy to do the exact opposite, like I'm sure I'm doing here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Enterprise E View Post
    Let me put in another example that I think fits in comparison.

    Take Paper Mario: Sticker Star and later, Paper Mario: Color Splash. Paper Mario: Sticker Star was not well-received by the gaming audience and those who loved the Paper Mario series (to put it mildly). However, the game still has gone on to sell 2.41 million copies (according to VGChartz). That is greater than the 2.26 million copies of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, widely believed to be the best of the Paper Mario games, or even the 1.38 million sold by the original Paper Mario (both figures coming from VGCharz again). Only Super Paper Mario has outsold it. However, when Paper Mario: Color Splash came around, Paper Mario fans spoke with their wallets. And boy did they ever. It still hasn't broken a million, sitting at .87 million (according to VGChartz). Now, there are some extenuating circumstances that can account for the sales of both games. The 3DS has sold better than the GameCube or the Wii U, but still. The games voiced their criticism of the direction of Paper Mario: Sticker Star by not buying Paper Mario: Color Splash when it looked too much like Paper Mario: Sticker Star. And I also believe that that was the main criticism of Paper Mario: Color Splash. Those that did play the game said that it was noticeably better than Paper Mario: Sticker Star.
    Trying to follow, but video games aren't really my thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Enterprise E View Post
    Now how does the above relate to Star Wars? Very closely, in my view. People liked The Force Awakens and lined up to see The Last Jedi. However, the Last Jedi disappointed fans and that was the reason for the major drop-off after the first week. Since many hardcore fans didn't like The Last Jedi, they refused to see Solo in protest. Now, I don't think Solo was going to make a billion since it was not a movie that fans were demanding to see, but I also don't think it was going to make less than 400 million, either. It's still Star Wars. The name Star Wars, alone, should strike fear into the hearts of other movie studios, causing them to give it a wide berth. That isn't happening anymore. And, of course, you have the aforementioned decline in Blu Ray sales and merchandising sales, which, to me, is really telling, in addition to Solo's underperformance. I think the real indicator will still be Episode IX. If they keep Luke Skywalker dead and don't give him a real reason for why he contemplated killing Ben Solo (such as Ben killing his wife and kids or something), or somehow bring him back (or both), I think you will see Episode IX underperform, possibly not even cracking a billion. Word of mouth from the first week will make or break this movie because I can see many fans staying home the first week to wait to hear what others think, or to just read the wiki on the movie and make the decision then. Of course, things will change, in my view, if the first preview either directly brings back Luke Skywalker, or says that the main plot of the movie is to do just that.
    I will agree that the long-term health of the franchise will be easier to measure the more films we can compare. As for the rest, as noted before, I'm not sure that the facts fit the case, but I am admittedly being an armchair critic of sorts.
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    While I think TLJ backlash did pay a part in Solo's preformance. I'm not sure we can reasonably say it was the largest factor when it was going up against both Infinity War and Deadpool 2. Especially when the former got a really good word of mouth. I do however think that if somehow episode 9 underperforms there's going to be a lot of questions raised. However the chances of that are still small. Not impossible but Lucasfilm and Disney would have to royally screw it up.

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