All-purpose news and politics thread: Two Steps Beyond!(Part II)

[WestPhillyPunisher]

We might need a bigger battery:



https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...01553601339392

My guess is both will either play down their shoutfest or just flat out deny it ever happened. My money’s on the latter.

[BeastieRunner]

My guess is both will either play down their shoutfest or just flat out deny it ever happened. My money’s on the latter.

They better hope it wasn't near the recording machine or we'll hear it sooner than later.

[Tazirai]

You don't know Indiana like JDogIndy and I do. I've lived here all my life and in some ways it's a lot like Illinois. Or any Midwest State that has larger urban areas and then most counties are rural farmland. The NW corner of the state is almost like a continuation of Chicago. I used to work in Whiting, Ind. and could go to a Mexican restaurant on the South side of Chicago for lunch in be back. The cities up north mostly have Democratic mayors. Pete Visclosky (Dem) has been our Congressman for decades and in his own low key way gets things done for our area and tries to think of the future, like expanding the commuter rail system,etc.

I'm not familiar with the guy JDogIndy mentions, Pete Bauer. But in Indiana the Republicans have a super majority in the State Legislature so it is somewhat miraculous that we've had a Democratic Senator in Joe Donnelly. One year the only thing the few Dems could do in the state house was not show up for a vote and hide out across the state line in Illinois. They had to come back when they were threatened with fines. His GOP opponent in 2012 Richard Mourdock famously torpedoed his own campaign when he said during the debate that a woman who gets pregnant by a rapist is carrying a gift from God. So yeah, I'll vote for Donnelly. At least he did vote no on Kavanaugh.

Trust me, I live in North Carolina. The problem with thinking like this is that things will always be the same, because we have to vote for shitty weaksauce Democrats who don't back us. Talk down ot us, and then to appease Republicans, start spouting Republican ideals.

In North carolina we went from Tarheel Blue to Purple with LOTS of Red, even going full Red a few years ago.

Know what happened? We got sick of a Republican House, Senate, and Governorship. We stopped supporting Weak Democrats and went after Stronger Progressive ones.
Roy Cooper was the Attorney General and went SUPER Aggressive against the last Governor who I, unfortunately, voted for in 2008, because he came across as sensible.
Then the GOP took over NC and we went downhill QUICK.

SO we fought back, and today after only ONE DAY of Early voting Democrats have a SUBSTANTIAL lead. Roy Cooper is backing Progressives, and not shitting on people tearing down Confederate Monuments or Black Lives Matter, and wants NC to go 15 an hour after meeting with Bernie.

It can be done. We gotta stop being scared to try to run Progressives. I'm sorry you guys feel stuck with him, but TRY a Progressive, or run yourselves.

[BeastieRunner]

I just spent the afternoon meeting and socializing with a bunch of Japanese & Korean business people.

They all referred to our POTUS as IQ45.

That's a new one for me!

[InformationGeek]

So WBE... got anymore room to squeeze this guy in because.... holy s**t man.

This is a real radio ad currently running in Arkansas in support of Republican Congressman French Hill on radio stations targeted to the African American community. I don't even have words to describe it.

[Jack Dracula]

We might need a bigger battery:



https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...01553601339392

Two higher-ups shouting at each other in the hallways?
Just another Thursday in the west wing.

[numberthirty]

Those two events, as damning as they are of the current administration, are beside the point because it certainly doesn't bother Trump's base. But the Clintons have to realize that they are not the future of the Democractic party and anything they say or do in the public eye at this point in time just may turn those fence sitters back to the GOP when they vote.

Oh please. Hillary's book tour drew huge crowds, her book was a massive best seller and Bill is still a ridiculously popular charmer. Gore's biggest mistake was not to have the Clintons campaign for him.

I'm going to preface this by including a "Bill didn't seem like he charmed Black Lives Matter or an interviewer who wanted to know if he had actually apologized to Monica Lewinsky." disclaimer. You have to ignore actual reality to buy into some "Bill is still a ridiculously popular charmer..." garbage.

Never mind that you are trying to make the "For Bill And HRC..." case with an election that is easily more than a decade old. That is incredibly telling.

That said...

If you are trying to put the focus on HRC, you might be trying to pin blame while you should be focused elsewhere.

Just this afternoon, I saw a block on MSNBC(Chuck Todd in the afternoon, maybe?) where they laid out how completely lousy the Democratic Party outreach to Latino voters has been. Essentially "Save us from Donald Trump while you ignore that we haven't really made much of an effort to appeal to you."

One guy pointed out that Democrats could get a lot further by telling Latinos what is in it for them as opposed to hoping that they will just vote against Trump.

Now, lets say the Democratic Party addresses that seriously and they still have an issue. Once they've done that, let's take a look at just how big of a drag on support that HRC and Bill staying in the mix actually amount to.

Until then, it feels like you need to actually address "Basics 101" before you put your time into trying to pin "X" amount of the blame onto HRC and Bill.

That said, I do think that it won't hurt the party one little bit if HRC and Bill exit stage left.

[Malvolio]

Hate to say this, but I'm actually siding with #30 on this. Sure, overall, the Clintons are still popular, but in districts where there's a close Congressional race, their presence could hurt more than help.

[numberthirty]

Hate to say this, but I'm actually siding with #30 on this. Sure, overall, the Clintons are still popular, but in districts where there's a close Congressional race, their presence could hurt more than help.

You do realize that I said "Quit trying to blame HRC or Bill when you are doing a straight up pathetic job of reaching out to Latino voters.", right?

[Malvolio]

You do realize that I said "Quit trying to blame HRC or Bill when you are doing a straight up pathetic job of reaching out to Latino voters.", right?

Oh yeah. It can be both, you know. Oh, that's right. For you, there can be only one answer to any political question.

[Malvolio]

You have ot be within the margin of error to be accurate, not outside it. Anything outside the margin of error is an outlier. The more outliers you have, the less accurate are your results. Don't be too surprised that many polling statisticians deal with outliers by discarding them.

Most polling depends on the sample size and source for accuracy. Polling by phone is difficult since often they only target landlines, not cell phones. And many people have blocks on their phones to avoid answering unfamiliar calls. That greatly reduces the sample size and diversity of the sample.

Polling by mail has it's own challenges, since many don't respond to them.

Then there is the issues of those who speak little or no English. Minority communities tend to be underrepresented in most polls.

Even once the results are in, there are a number of ways a statistician can process the data. Each way tends to give different results. There is a correct way to do it, one used most often. But it's not the only way.

What was it Mark Twain said (repeating Benjamin Disraeli)? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[numberthirty]

Oh yeah. It can be both, you know. Oh, that's right. For you, there can be only one answer to any political question.

I'd agree with that it can potentially be both.

That said, I don't think it makes much sense to focus on the "Maybe" when it is absolutely within your power to focus on what you actually are not doing.

[numberthirty]

Well, this might get interesting...

https://www.bleedingcool.com/2018/10...teran-affairs/

Trump Administration Sued Over Refusal to Release Records Regarding Marvel’s Ike Perlmutter’s Involvement With Veteran Affairs

[JCAll]

19 or 20 people are killed, including the killer who committed suicide at a college in Crimea. The attacker used guns and bombs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45891201

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/17/e...ntl/index.html

So kids are still studying in a college that is still open in a war zone?

Life always has to go on, even if the world goes to hell. That's how people stay sane.

[PaulBullion]

Hate to say this, but I'm actually siding with #30 on this.

Whenever you notice yourself doing that, you should do some more research and really, really think hard on the subject some more.