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  1. #4501
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malvolio View Post
    I don't think the Clintons' speaking tour will turn any Democrats to vote Republican. However, it may make a few people so disgusted that they just stay home on Election Day. And that may be all the Republicans need to win in some districts.
    Oh please. Hillary's book tour drew huge crowds, her book was a massive best seller and Bill is still a ridiculously popular charmer. Gore's biggest mistake was not to have the Clintons campaign for him.
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

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  2. #4502
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    I know I am one of the strongest defenders of the craft of polling on this thread, but races like this make it hard. Talk about "all over the place!"

    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

    Hillary was right!

  3. #4503
    I am invenitable Jack Dracula's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestPhillyPunisher View Post
    I am so looking forward to casting a vote for Scholten.
    Steve King is such malignant little troll.
    I curse the ground he walks on and the air which sustains him.
    The Cover Contest Weekly Winners ThreadSo much winning!!

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  4. #4504
    Invincible Jersey Ninja Tami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    I know I am one of the strongest defenders of the craft of polling on this thread, but races like this make it hard. Talk about "all over the place!"

    THat's why I take Polls with a generous grain of salt. There is no magic formula to an exact, unbiased, and accurate polling effort. There are so many factors that can affect a polls' results.
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  5. #4505
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tami View Post
    THat's why I take Polls with a generous grain of salt. There is no magic formula to an exact, unbiased, and accurate polling effort. There are so many factors that can affect a polls' results.
    Actually they are extremely accurate if they are outside the margin of error

  6. #4506
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastieRunner View Post
    Munchkin is pulling the US Treasury out of the Saudi investment conference.

    Trump ain't happy.

    Another Trumpster is breaking rank.
    Check the batteries in the Oompa Loompla Whistle thingy. I figure we went electronic since it's getting used so much...

  7. #4507
    Postin' since Aug '05 Dalak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    Check the batteries in the Oompa Loompla Whistle thingy. I figure we went electronic since it's getting used so much...
    Are you kidding me? We can't encourage alternative energies like that, we have to farm that labor out to someone paid pennies an hour to blow that whistle.

  8. #4508
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalak View Post
    Are you kidding me? We can't encourage alternative energies like that, we have to farm that labor out to someone paid pennies an hour to blow that whistle.
    Pennies an hour? Since when has Trump actually paid anyone?

  9. #4509
    Invincible Jersey Ninja Tami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KNIGHT OF THE LAKE View Post
    Actually they are extremely accurate if they are outside the margin of error
    You have ot be within the margin of error to be accurate, not outside it. Anything outside the margin of error is an outlier. The more outliers you have, the less accurate are your results. Don't be too surprised that many polling statisticians deal with outliers by discarding them.

    Most polling depends on the sample size and source for accuracy. Polling by phone is difficult since often they only target landlines, not cell phones. And many people have blocks on their phones to avoid answering unfamiliar calls. That greatly reduces the sample size and diversity of the sample.

    Polling by mail has it's own challenges, since many don't respond to them.

    Then there is the issues of those who speak little or no English. Minority communities tend to be underrepresented in most polls.

    Even once the results are in, there are a number of ways a statistician can process the data. Each way tends to give different results. There is a correct way to do it, one used most often. But it's not the only way.
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  10. #4510
    Postin' since Aug '05 Dalak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    Pennies an hour? Since when has Trump actually paid anyone?
    Ask the various porn stars and other women he paid along with NDA's

  11. #4511
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalak View Post
    Ask the various porn stars and other women he paid along with NDA's
    I'm not sure those count, seeing as the payments we know of came from Trump's attorney with the (broken) promise of paying them back.

  12. #4512
    Postin' since Aug '05 Dalak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    I'm not sure those count, seeing as the payments we know of came from Trump's attorney with the (broken) promise of paying them back.
    I guess I'll default to his Kids then, like how he got paid by his own folks.

  13. #4513
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    Check the batteries in the Oompa Loompla Whistle thingy. I figure we went electronic since it's getting used so much...
    We might need a bigger battery:

    John Kelly and John Bolton engaged in a profanity-laced argument outside the Oval Office today, I'm told. The shouting match was so intense others worried one of the two men might immediately resign. Neither is resigning, I'm told.
    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/...01553601339392
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

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  14. #4514
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestPhillyPunisher View Post
    I think the Democrats' worst nightmare is a guy who has shown total disregard for our common norms, shattered all expectations of respect to be delivered to foreign leaders and dignitaries, regularly applauds autocrats, separates and locks children in cages, and openly harasses the disabled and sexually abused.

    Look, I understand that it would be easier for Democrats running for office if Bill and Hillary Clinton just went away. It makes it easier to push their newer agendas without being held back with the baggage, some I would argue is relatively unfair because of the way that outlets like Fox News were able to run amok and pillory the two of them with both a) charges of corruption and b) charges of hypocrisy. While the hypocrisy charges may have some legitimate mileage even under the reasonable political observer, I think few actually were willing to dig into the charges of corruption and, those that were, didn't really care that they were often overblown or were as a result of left-wing rhetoric that would dismiss against candidates that they would normally dismiss.

    Given that Barack Obama is the most popular political figure in the country (last poll I saw had him above Bernie Sanders, yes), I think the smart money is that Democrats want to push him out more. That makes sense--especially for someone like me who thinks Obama is the best modern president. However, I think Democrats trying to force people on or off the stage is the wrong move for them at this point. I think Democrats keeping the Clintons at arms-length is probably the smart political move but no one is really looking at them for endorsements or for their help in campaigning. Still, I don't see the reason to be yelling at them to get off the stage. They have stories to tell and they have every right to tell it. Obama, meanwhile, seems reluctant to jump into the fray, so soon after he had to cede the White House to practically his antithesis. I imagine that he thinks he is doing quite a lot for a former president (certainly true, especially this soon given how the norms traditionally hold up) but I think Democrats, rightfully, would say that if Trump is going to shatter norms, they should too.
    With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility

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  15. #4515
    Mighty Member TheDarman's Avatar
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    Sorry for the double-post but I was looking at the old Senate election map from 2014 (which will have Senators up for re-election in 2020, a presidential election year). Here it is:

    959px-2014_Senate_election_results_map.svg.jpg

    The bright red states are where Democrats lost seats. The solid red states are where they retained their current seats. The current makeup of the chamber, thanks to a special election in Alabama, has led to a 51-49 Republican to Democrat alignment (well, two of the Ds there are Independents but they caucus with Democrats). Now, the current map is looking grim for Democrats. Their chances at regaining the chamber here are 1 in 5 according to Nate Silva. However, the predicted average net loss for Democrats according to his model is 0.4 Republican seats. This is largely because of the non-competitive nature of most of the seats in this model and because there are almost equal opportunity for pick-ups for Democrats as well as Republicans. I would say that my guess would be Democrats will not gain the Senate back this term. They will net lose about one seat. That isn't terrible--they will have a 52-48 ratio.

    Finally, getting back to the above graph, I think that the chances Democrats can win back the chamber are high in 2020. Maine went for Hillary Clinton (aside from some oddities with the electoral college in their state that granted Trump one vote). Not only did Hillary Clinton win that state but Senator Collins, who cast a decisive vote to confirm a man credibly accused of sexual assault to the Supreme Court, is running for re-election in this state. If there are cases in which Justice Kavanaugh restricts the rights of a woman to choose, something which Collins has taken a stance for being for, it will be easy to hit her for this politically. Colorado, additionally, voted overwhelmingly (for being a swing state mind you) against Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Senator Gardner has made no real actionable effort to distance himself from Trump's policies and was always a reliable vote on Kavanaugh. This will haunt him and I can almost guarantee, as a Colorado native myself, that he will not win re-election. For those keeping score, that brings the Senate composition to a 50-50 hold, even barring for the most likely scenario, in my view, for the upcoming mid-terms.

    The rest are more difficult to predict. It depends on a number of things that come down to local and national politics and how they coordinate with each other. I'm not going to lie and say that I think Democrats are going to be able to hit the deep South or states like Montana and come out with a win. Stranger things have obviously happened and current Democratic senators do come from states that have voted for Trump in the past. However, looking at potential pick-ups, there are a few that are more likely than the others. North Carolina, for example, might be in play next time, as it did vote for Obama in 2008. This one will come down to who the candidates are so this will be one to watch for in the primaries in both the state and the presidential primary. Iowa did go for Trump in the prior election cycle but Obama did win it in 2012 and Iowa did lose a Democratic Senator in the 2014 cycle, meaning that it isn't outside the realm of possibility to see it happen again where a presidential win in the state could correlate to a Senate victory. Especially since it seems likely that the current Republican Governor there will lose her seat in the upcoming election. The rest would probably need to see Democratic Senators distance themselves from the national leader of their party, which always presents problems but, again, it doesn't mean we couldn't see pick-ups there. These are more wait and see ones.

    I'm only iterating this for people to be prepared for what is going to happen. Democrats are looking increasingly likely to take the House of Representatives this year. That is a feat in and of itself with an intensely gerrymandered map country-wide that allows for Republicans to seize greater control than they should. Hopefully, for Democrats, these will change soon with 37 total governor's races going on and their likely seats governing over a majority of the population who will be voting this November. Obviously there needs to be more than that, but typically governor races correlate to individual state district seats. If the maps shift in their direction in 2020, I'd expect for Democrats to be less vulnerable to lose the House except in mid-term elections, especially if they gain the White House in 2020. These races are going to be important for the future. Though, we have to be realistic. The Senate won't flip in November. It'll stay narrowly under Republican control. However, given the momentum against the Trump White House, if Democrats can capitalize on his historic unpopularity in 2020, they might see the environment look drastically different after another two years. Patience isn't the greatest advice to give in moments like these but definitely worht keeping in mind heading into November.
    With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility

    Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

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