All-purpose news and politics thread: Two Steps Beyond!(Part II)

[aja_christopher]

That's not enough to mitigate Mitch McConnell. Trump's a symptom, not the disease.

All you're doing is pointing out the larger issue -- that Trump isn't the only problem within the Republican party.

With that in mind, Romney would be an end to that specific problem, regardless of any others that might remain.

And I think we all agree that taking the Senate is important given the Republican obstructionism we saw during Obama's tenure.

[Tuck]

With that in mind, Romney would be an end to that specific problem, regardless of any others that might remain.

I mean, we can't know that he would or wouldn't. His willingness to indulge the party base in his run doesn't bode well for it. Although his current positioning of himself as resisting the party's current tendency might make a difference. I don't know.

[ZombieHavoc]

I think it's safe to assume Romney would be pretty bad, just not as bad as Trump.

[aja_christopher]

I mean, we can't know that he would or wouldn't. His willingness to indulge the party base in his run doesn't bode well for it. Although his current positioning of himself as resisting the party's current tendency might make a difference. I don't know.

None of us can really know until it plays out and there's absolutely nothing wrong with considering all of the possibilities in the meantime.

But I think the priority should remain on getting Trump out of office -- he is a threat to our democracy in a way that I don't think Romney would ever be.

[Dalak]

That's not enough to mitigate Mitch McConnell. Trump's a symptom, not the disease.

You were asking about qualifications for president, not for counters to the Turtle. Mind you, I agree that the senate needs to be retaken with enough clout to avoid the obstructionism we've been bogged in for the last 8-10 years.

[Tuck]

But I think the priority should remain on getting Trump out of office -- he is a threat to our democracy in a way that I don't think Romney would ever be.

While it's Trump who "decided" (I don't think he knows enough for it to be an intentional decision) to cross the Rubicon on actively attacking American political and institutional foundations, the Republican Party crossed with him. I don't think things go back just by removing Trump. The Republican Party needs to have it out with itself and someone needs to drag it kicking-and-screaming back to some semblance of sanity.

[aja_christopher]

While it's Trump who "decided" (I don't think he knows enough for it to be an intentional decision) to cross the Rubicon on actively attacking American political and institutional foundations, the Republican Party crossed with him. I don't think things go back just by removing Trump. The Republican Party needs to have it out with itself and someone needs to drag it kicking-and-screaming back to some semblance of sanity.

Which is why I wouldn't complain if Romney was the one to do it -- unless he adopts Trump's tactics in the process.

But this is all hypothetical -- Trump has strong support from the Republican base and that most likely won't change before the election.

If it does, then I'll adjust my concerns accordingly.

Edit: And I posted yesterday that I know all of this doesn't just end if Trump loses the presidency -- the root of the issue is gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement, and once that is addressed the Republicans will rightfully lose a lot of political power in America.

Voter demographics are not on their side -- especially in the long term.

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"Assuming 2012 and 2016 voting patterns in future elections: Not surprisingly, a scenario that attributes the voting patterns of all groups from Obama’s 2012 win to future more racially diverse populations, yields solid Democratic popular vote and Electoral College wins from 2020 through 2036.

More surprisingly, changing demography has a clear impact on future outcomes when Trump’s 2016 voting patterns are attributed to the 2020 population. Here the modest shift toward more racially diverse voting populations in several states is enough to provide Democratic wins in both the popular vote and Electoral College — not only in 2020 but in subsequent elections.

However, the 2016 election result was unusual because of a high level of third-party voters. When those extra third-party voters are allocated back to one of the two major parties, based on underlying partisan preferences, projections to 2020 show a dead heat in the Electoral College.

2. Voting assumptions about communities of color: Several scenarios assume that future voting patterns of racial groups will differ markedly from those observed in 2016. Taking note that whites tend to have the highest voting turnout rates of all racial groups, a scenario that assumes that all racial groups turn out at the same rate improves the voting clout of racial minorities, especially Hispanics and Asians. When this assumption is made—while leaving other aspects of 2016 voting constant—Democrats win both the popular and Electoral College votes in 2020 as well as subsequent elections. Additional scenarios for blacks assume their 2012 turnout rates, their 2012 Democratic voting preferences, and both together—which factored into Obama’s election victory—continue in the future. In all three of those black voter scenarios, Democrats win both the popular vote and Electoral College in future elections.

However, there is one scenario here that yields Republican Electoral College—though not popular vote—wins: a pro-GOP margin swing of 15 points among Hispanics, Asians, and other nonblack racial minorities. But if these groups shift their margins by the same amount toward Democrats, the latter party wins by large margins in 2020 and future elections.

3. White college graduate versus white noncollege-educated voting preferences: The 2016 election showed a sharp divide in Republican voting between white college graduates and whites without college educations. Among the simulations examined, the greatest opportunity for Republicans to extend their 2016 victory model assumes an expansion of the already-substantial voting margin that the GOP has gained among white noncollege-educated voters. When this margin is expanded by 10 points, Republicans win both the 2020 Electoral College and popular vote. They continue to win the Electoral College—though not the popular vote—through 2036, despite broadening diversity and other predicted changes across the country.

Several other scenarios are explored by shifting future voting patterns of white college graduates and whites without college educations in different ways. While strong Democratic wins occur when either group shows improved Democratic support, it is clear that the most persistent gains for Republicans come from those scenarios where they improve their appeal to noncollege-educated whites...

In many of the simulations that favor Democrats in the Electoral College, especially those beyond 2020, swing states that favored Republicans in the 2016 election turn Democratic. These include Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, in the Sun Belt, as well as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio in the North. But in scenarios where Republicans are Electoral College victors, they retain most of their 2016 swing states and often add new ones, including Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine."

https://www.brookings.edu/research/a...l-future_2018/

[Robotman]

Bernie supporters have to be worried.


- He's young.

- He's dynamic as a speaker.

- He's got a lure to the middle of the country where he's touring to get that support.

- He is seen as the future of the party right now.


I'd be fucking worried if I was Bernie Sanders about this Beto O'Rourke.

I like Beto but I’ve become a little concerned with all his apologies. People are clutching their pearls at stuff he did in high school and he makes these grand apologies. The other guy gets caught saying “grab them by the pussy”, calls Nazis “some really fine folks”, and mocks a disabled person and brushes it all off. Granted he’s a narcissistic sociopath, but it’s going to take toughness to stand up to this bully. If Beto is just going to use Obama’s Hope message that’s fine but he needs to also exemplify strength. He hasn’t shown that so far. Being nice isn’t going to defeat Trump.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

That's not enough to mitigate Mitch McConnell. Trump's a symptom, not the disease.

Agreed. As long as the Senate remains in Republican control, Turtle Boy will continue his political blockades. In fact, it could be argued that McConnell is the real power behind the throne and Trump nothing more than his useful idiot (heavy emphasis on idiot).

[BeastieRunner]

Team Mueller Update:

In a flag that shows Mueller isn't very close to being done, the "illegal campaign contributions scheme" section of the Cohen warrants were unsealed today. They are totally redacted because the investigation is "ongoing." So others could be charged, including Junior, Jared, Eric, Ivanka, The Trump Organization, the Weisselberg, and Individual #1.

[aja_christopher]

Team Mueller Update:

In a flag that shows Mueller isn't very close to being done, the "illegal campaign contributions scheme" section of the Cohen warrants were unsealed today. They are totally redacted because the investigation is "ongoing." So others could be charged, including Junior, Jared, Eric, Ivanka, The Trump Organization, the Weisselberg, and Individual #1.

It's a re-run, but still relevant.

[aja_christopher]

Cont'd

[Dalak]

I like Beto but I’ve become a little concerned with all his apologies. People are clutching their pearls at stuff he did in high school and he makes these grand apologies. The other guy gets caught saying “grab them by the pussy”, calls Nazis “some really fine folks”, and mocks a disabled person and brushes it all off. Granted he’s a narcissistic sociopath, but it’s going to take toughness to stand up to this bully. If Beto is just going to use Obama’s Hope message that’s fine but he needs to also exemplify strength. He hasn’t shown that so far. Being nice isn’t going to defeat Trump.

I do agree with this, while his approach worked in Texas where it was a breath of fresh air it won't work so well nationally. As others have said in this thread, I also think this run is more an appeal to be a running mate or another higher role in the potential democratic president's administration. Regardless he's going to need to take a more forceful approach even if he should try to retain the humanity that appeals to so many of his current supporters.

[Malvolio]

Yes. Beto is not really running for President. He is running for VP or a cabinet post. Which cabinet post? I haven't quite worked that out.

[ed2962]

I like Beto but I’ve become a little concerned with all his apologies. People are clutching their pearls at stuff he did in high school and he makes these grand apologies. The other guy gets caught saying “grab them by the pussy”, calls Nazis “some really fine folks”, and mocks a disabled person and brushes it all off. Granted he’s a narcissistic sociopath, but it’s going to take toughness to stand up to this bully. If Beto is just going to use Obama’s Hope message that’s fine but he needs to also exemplify strength. He hasn’t shown that so far. Being nice isn’t going to defeat Trump.

That's my problem with a few of the demo who are throwing their hat in the race...instead of coming in with clear policies, they're branding themselves as "Vote for me cuz I'm not a vulgar jerk like Trump." What worked for Obama is not going to work for these folks trying to do weak version of his act ( Booker, Beto, maybe Harris...)