All-purpose news and politics thread: Two Steps Beyond!(Part II)

[aja_christopher]

He took down Cohen, but this started with him representing Daniels and I really haven’t seen anything about him actually helping her. The best thing was Cohen offered to drop the NDA if she paid him back, which it sounds like she doesn’t want too

Like I said before: you can believe whatever you want at this point -- I'll wait until all of the facts are in before judging.

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"Stormy Daniels and Michael Avenatti are taking a victory lap after Michael Cohen’s guilty plea"

"Shortly after Cohen entered his guilty pleas on Tuesday, Daniels appeared to celebrate the news by tweeting: "How ya like me now?! #teamstormy."

"And thank you Michael Avenatti," she added in an ensuing tweet, addressing her lawyer.

She also told NBC News in a statement: "Michael [Avenatti] and I are vindicated and we look forward to the apologies from the people who claimed we were wrong."

He told MSNBC on Tuesday:

"She has been vindicated this afternoon. I have been vindicated based on what we've gone through over these past five or six months, what she's gone through. I applaud her courageousness and her fortitude in coming forward. I think a lot of this stems from her courage and what she was willing to come forward and do.

"The $130,000 payment — count eight [of Cohen's charges] — absolutely, directly relates to her. That's the payment that was made to her. It relates to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and we're going to get to the bottom now in connection with the civil case as to what the president knew, and what he knew about it, and when he knew it, and what he did about it.

"The likelihood of me getting a deposition of the President of the United States under oath just went through the roof — no question about it.

"Our case is no longer going to be stayed and we're going to press forward as aggressively as possible."

https://www.businessinsider.com/stor...en-plea-2018-8

[numberthirty]

Like I said before: you can believe whatever you want at this point -- I'll wait until all of the facts are in before judging.

Just out of curiosity...

Do folks really believe that Mueller would not have got Cohen without Daniels turning up?

[Tami]

Just out of curiosity...

Do folks really believe that Mueller would not have got Cohen without Daniels turning up?

Let's say that it turned up the heat and made it more likely that Cohen would have a melt down.

[aja_christopher]

Just out of curiosity...

Do folks really believe that Mueller would not have got Cohen without Daniels turning up?

My assertion isn't about "belief" -- it's about what actually happened.

Anyway, I'm not going to waste time on theoretical arguments based on personal bias -- especially with people who do their best to tear down anything related to the Democratic party at nearly every opportunity.

Avenatti helped bring down Cohen (and possibly Trump) and that's good enough for me -- anything else is just extra credit at this point.

If you "believe" Mueller could have done it without him, that's a fair assessment as well, but that still doesn't take away from Avenatti's record.

And coincidentally, if Kavanaugh gets confirmed, there remains the possibility that Trump (and crew) will skate regardless of Mueller's report, so it's a little early to start talking about what Mueller could or will do with regards to individuals like Trump and Cohen until it actually gets done -- at this point, there's no solid guarantee that Rosenstein or even Mueller will even be around after the midterms.

I'd like to think Mueller will deliver but I never put anything past the Republicans given their record -- one thing is for certain though and that's that Cohen is already helping out Mueller's investigation, thanks to Avenatti and Daniels.

[BeastieRunner]

Just out of curiosity...

Do folks really believe that Mueller would not have got Cohen without Daniels turning up?

Mueller did not "get" Cohen.

The NY AG did.

Then the NY AG will be funneling info to Mueller if it ties into the investigation.

Let's not conflate the two.

Cohen's flip on Trump is in regards to state charges related to the Trump Organization and money laundering. Not the federal Trump investigation.

Manafort's the one that is giving the goodies on Trump for Team Mueller.

[numberthirty]

Mueller did not "get" Cohen.

The NY AG did.

Then the NY AG will be funneling info to Mueller if it ties into the investigation.

Let's not conflate the two.

Cohen's flip on Trump is in regards to state charges related to the Trump Organization and money laundering. Not the federal Trump investigation.

Manafort's the one that is giving the goodies on Trump for Team Mueller.

Sure.

I'm just pointing to the idea that the potential campaign finance aspect would have been overlooked by the Federal investigation had it not been for the work Avenatti has done.

It doesn't feel like they would not have looked into it at all had someone not brought it up framing it as a potential campaign finance violation.

[numberthirty]

For the Illinois folks...

Debate between the two candidates for Governor on the local ABC affiliate right now.

Edit: They should have just let these two start of with a round of Mortal Kombat to get it out of the way.

Jeez. Ten minutes in, they have each accused the other of hiding money in "Off Shore" accounts.

[BeastieRunner]

Sure.

I'm just pointing to the idea that the potential campaign finance aspect would have been overlooked by the Federal investigation had it not been for the work Avenatti has done.

It doesn't feel like they would not have looked into it at all had someone not brought it up framing it as a potential campaign finance violation.

Perhaps.

My reply was not directed at you. I probably should not have quoted you.

I think people need to be clear on the fact that Mueller is not in charge of the NY state investigation of Trump, which Cohen plead guilty on. Cohen's information was privileged and not touched by the FBI. During the raid, it was turned over to the state. So anything Mueller gets at some point, will come from the NY AG.

That is my point. Don't conflate the 2 separate investigations.

[aja_christopher]

Another thing to consider is that Avenatti seems to know how to fight these guys on their terms -- I still remember Trump not even wanting to respond back when Avenatti was going after him like a pitbull on the Daniels case, which makes me wonder if maybe Avenatti (as a lawyer) knows exactly how to take down guys like Trump, regardless of their status.

I'm not saying put money on him -- just conversely don't underestimate him given both his record and Trump's apparent fear of crossing him.



As an endurance racer, he probably knows how to play the long game both on and off the track, which makes him a great complement to Mueller.

[numberthirty]

I'm not saying put money on him -- just conversely don't underestimate him given both his record and Trump's apparent fear of crossing him.

On that...

While I guess it could be some sort of fear, what is the case for playing the whole thing the exact way Avenatti wants to and confronting him on his own terms?

Just to prove that you are not afraid of him?

Seems pretty goofy to set aside that you can just ignore a guy who wants not to be ignored just to, maybe, prove that you aren't afraid of him.

[aja_christopher]

Quoting a Republican, so take it as you will.

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"Hatch: Trump 'may have to give up' tax returns"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/03/polit...rns/index.html

While I guess it could be some sort of fear, what is the case for playing the whole thing the exact way Avenatti wants to and confronting him on his own terms?

Just to prove that you are not afraid of him?

Seems pretty goofy to set aside that you can just ignore a guy who wants not to be ignored just to, maybe, prove that you aren't afraid of him.

I agree with that but it's more of an instinct I have when I see those two go at it -- kind of like watching a bully realize that there are some kids on the playground that he just shouldn't f with.

When you think about it -- as illegal as many of Trump's activities are, lawyers are his natural kryptonite.

[ed2962]

For the Illinois folks...

Debate between the two candidates for Governor on the local ABC affiliate right now.

Edit: They should have just let these two start of with a round of Mortal Kombat to get it out of the way.

Jeez. Ten minutes in, they have each accused the other of hiding money in "Off Shore" accounts.

I tuned in too late. It looks like they're in their closing statements. I did catch Rauner call Pritzer Micahel Madigan's puppet...

[worstblogever]

Hey WBE, I know your profiles say you kind of like Graham for some of the things he said, but next year, can you remove that? There's nothing worth praising about this *******, especially after this...

Seriously, what is this crap?

Make no mistake, the last month of Lindsey Graham seems more in step with the insane warmonger and extreme partisan that he was from '04 through '14, and not the "nice guy Lindsey" schtick he was trying while floating a presidential run.

Pretty sure when his update rolls around in '19, he's not going to be given credit for coming back to the center and calling Trump out, because he sure as hell ain't doing that.

[aja_christopher]

That is my point. Don't conflate the 2 separate investigations.

This is what I was referring to -- ex-RNC chair Cohen is helping the Mueller probe directly and the Daniels case played a large part in making that happen.

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"Michael Cohen is giving Mueller's Russia probe 'critical information' on Trump"

https://www.businessinsider.com/cohe...n-trump-2018-9

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Also wanted to add that I think the timing of this tax story is meant to coincide with the Democrats taking the House and getting access to the entirety of Trump's tax returns after the midterms, while Kavanaugh (or possibly another conservative pawn) is meant to counter to the upcoming investigations.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-ta...215515435.html

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Maybe this will move the needle -- they might not risk losing women and the religious right over one nominee.

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"100,000 U.S. Christian Churches Demand Withdrawal of Kavanaugh's Supreme Court Nomination"

http://fortune.com/2018/10/03/nation...augh-withdraw/

[numberthirty]

Preface this one by pointing out that the first thing they will always do is go after a woman's reputation when she makes a rape accusation...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.7a4eed2c32d1

Republicans on Senate panel release explicit statement about Kavanaugh accuser’s sex life

The statement, which was circulated to the hundreds of journalists on the Judiciary Committee’s press list, was from Dennis Ketterer, a former Democratic congressional candidate and television meteorologist who said he was involved in a brief relationship with Kavanaugh accuser Julie Swetnick in 1993.

Swetnick said last week in an affidavit that Kavanaugh was present at a house party in 1982 where she alleges she was the victim of a gang rape, a claim he vehemently denies.

In his statement, Ketterer said Swetnick once told him that she sometimes enjoyed group sex with multiple men and had first engaged in it during high school. Ketterer said the remark “derailed” their relationship, which he described as involving “physical contact” but no intercourse.