American flag emoji.
Last edited by ZombieHavoc; 11-19-2018 at 02:24 PM.
Original join date: 11/23/2004
Eclectic Connoisseur of all things written, drawn, or imaginatively created.
There have been a few primaries. Most aren't that successful, and people have noticed a trend that when Presidents get challenged, the party loses the White House (LBJ in 1968 before he dropped out, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George HW Bush in 1992.)
An odd exception is 1972 when two sitting members of Congress challenged Nixon in the Republican primary, and he went on to win 49 states in the general election.
The Master Race comment seemed to be a dumb joke about how the commissioner and the consultant both had gaps in their teeth.
A serious answer about Florida is that it's a large swing state, so there's a greater opportunity for screw-ups and scrutiny. There are some counties where local election boards have been terrible, and violated various court orders on transparency. Local regulations also allow for some dumb county policies that can have outsized impact (IE- It seems likely Rick Scott became Senator because congressional candidates were in a different section of the ballot than anyone else, and in areas without competitive House elections, it's even harder to find the Senate race.) There's also the argument that the national media was often misinformed about Florida, and came to exaggerated conclusions.
This seems like a situation where conflicting evidence would come to light (IE- if he has done antisemitic stuff before, or has expressed approval for President Trump, we'd probably get some witnesses for that.)
If she runs for Senate and wins, that's awesome for Democrats.
If she runs for Senate and loses, she'll still be the most prominent potential candidate for Governor.
It is conceivable that 2022 will not be as favorable an environment politically. Kemp could be a popular enough Governor, or there could be a Democrat in the White House.
The UK is also a country that people want in the European Union. There wouldn't be as much forgiveness for Greece, Italy or Spain.
But they'd be glad to take the UK back, especially if the UK shows that they regret leaving.
Sincerely,
Thomas Mets
U.S. closes busiest Mexico border crossing for several hours to install new barriers against caravans, migrants
Does anyone really think this makes any sense at all?he United States closed off northbound traffic for several hours at the busiest border crossing with Mexico to install new security barriers on Monday, a day after hundreds of Tijuana residents protested against the presence of thousands of Central American migrants.
At the same time in Houston, legal groups argued that a judge should prevent the Trump administration from enforcing its ban on asylum for anyone who illegally crosses the border.
The Trump administration also closed one of two pedestrian crossings at the San Ysidro crossing in a move apparently aimed at preventing any mass rush of migrants across the border.
The installation of movable, wire-topped barriers threatens to complicate life for Mexicans using San Ysidro, where about 110,000 people enter the U.S. every day in 40,000 vehicles.
Long lines backed up in Tijuana, where many people have to cross the border to work on the U.S. side.
Original join date: 11/23/2004
Eclectic Connoisseur of all things written, drawn, or imaginatively created.
The Democratic presidential primary is pretty damn interesting, since the polling front-runners are two men in their late 70s who might not run, five Senators who are seen as top-tier contenders are struggling in the single digits, and the current excitement seems to be about Beto. Without knowing who's going to run we don't really know what openings there will be.
Here are my premature thoughts on this topic. This considers how well I think they'd do as President (IE- whether I would personally vote for them over Trump), as well as political considerations in the primaries and general elections. An overall caveat is that the only way for some of the more obscure candidates to shine would be by demonstrating political talent, although someone obscure might win the primaries by pandering to the base in a way that hurts their general election odds.
I've split potential candidates into several categories.
The Ones To Bet On...
Joe Biden- He may be the right man for the time, largely for circumstances beyond his control. If 2020 is a referendum on outsiders, it can pay to be an insider, especially one who has remained respected even after holding a high profile for over a decade. He should be effective in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump really has no shot without those.
Beto O'Rourke- Best positioned for the Democrats who want to continue with the excitement of 2018. The party's wins in the other legislative races in Texas make up for losing the state. With a few terms in Congress and the next two years as a national figure, he probably meets the bare minimum threshold for national experience.
The Paper Tigers...
Cory Booker- Not terrible, but largely generic. The Wall Street ties may be a problem in the primary, and he seems like a less impressive Obama, without a telegenic family, and without representing a significant and inspirational first. He also hasn't acquitted himself especially well on the national stage (witness his lame 'I am Spartacus' moment.)
Kirsten Gilibrand- A blue dog congresswoman who became a very liberal Senator the moment her constituency changed can be painted as shameless.
Kamala Harris- Hasn't been that impressive as a Senator. Has a lot of sound bites with limited substance/ general election appeal (IE- asking the head of ICE if he's aware that some communities see the organization as the equivalent of the KKK.)
Bernie Sanders- He's not polling all that well for a runner-up who should have high name recognition, and is seen as the leader of a major movement. He's also 79 and has alienated much of the party.
Elizabeth Warren- Very well-positioned (a progressive with ties to the establishment, Senator from the big state next to the nation's first primary, A woman at a time when there's a desire to finally have a female President, expert on economic anxiety at a time of it) to run for President. Has not been that impressive as a politician. See the DNA test fiasco, as well as her reelection results (she got the same percentage of the vote as Klobuchar).
Obscure/ Tough Road But High Potential...
Mike Bloomberg- A former Republican in his late 70s will be a tough sell in the primaries. I'm not sure he'll do that well in the rust belt/ sun belt in the general election. His accomplishments as a businessman and mayor have been impressive, and he could buy a lot of top-tier consultants/ support.
Sherrod Brown- A swing state Senator could be strong in the general election, but he would have to break through the pack.
Steve Bullock- A small-state Western Governor will have a tough time emerging from the primary, but can be a strong contender in the general election and have any easy time making it a referendum on Trump, rather than on national Democrats.
Amy Klobuchar- Very popular in her home state. Strong appeal in key regions of the country. Would represent a major first (first female President) without any serious baggage.
Mitch Landrieu- I've been impressed by what I've heard, and he has a potential story as a popular executive who helped his city recover from Hurricane Katrina. Not sure how he gets others on his side.
I Don't See It...
Joaquin Castro- Has probably been overshadowed by Beto. Limited relevant electoral success. His experience is exaggerated (it seems the mayor of San Antonio has limited power compared to the city manager.)
John Delaney- His congressional tenure wasn't impressive, and his business career suggests potential pitfalls.
Tulsi Gabbard- Can be young and exciting, but way too friendly with dictators in the current environment.
Eric Garcetti- Not sure how he stands out, especially with the rural focus of early primaries.
Eric Holder- Seems to be a less effective communicator than Obama, without any proven campaign experience and no foreign policy chops.
John Hickenlooper- Seemed to be an okay but not great Governor, who hasn't really performed that well for his state. His family life isn't ideal (he's a divorced elderly man who just got married to a much younger woman.)
Jay Inslee- I don't see how he emerges from the pack.
Terry McAuliffe- This does not seem to be a cycle for a middle-aged white guy who happens to be a former DNC Chairman. The reevaluation of Bill Clinton's personal failings is also not going to reflect well on one of his top fundraisers.
Chris Murphy- Generic younger Senator. Seems overshadowed by Beto.
Richard Ojeda- He's a state senator who lost a bid for Congress by more than ten points. He might have a shot at winning his state primary, but his decision to run is probably harmful to his party.
Deval Patrick- He couldn't get fifty percent of the vote running for reelection in Massachusetts (he won thanks to an independent splitting the vote.)
Tim Ryan- There are probably better blue-collar candidates among statewide officeholders. Challenging Pelosi from the right is also not going to win a Democratic primary.
Howard Schultz- Democrats don't really seem to be as impressed by business types, and the CEO of Starbucks seems to invite too many culture wars (not only left VS right, but mom and pop VS corporation.)
Tom Steyer- A political outsider without the fame of Trump.
Eric Swallwell- Hasn't been that impressive as a Congressman. His biggest news item has been a gaffe about how the government can use nukes if there is opposition to gun control.
Ron Wyden- Even if Sanders doesn't run, he'll have a hard time standing out.
It's a big crowd, but it would be a mistake to settle on a favorite now. It's better if weaknesses emerge under the high scrutiny of a competitive primary.
Sincerely,
Thomas Mets
White House reverses course, permanently restores Jim Acosta's press pass
Haha they made up "rules" specifically for that situationThe White House, however, said all reporters must now abide by a new four-part policy about covering press conferences:
Only one question per reporter.
Any follow-ups are purely at the discretion of the president or any other White House official answering questions.
"Yielding the floor includes, when applicable, physically surrendering the microphone."
Any violations of these rules "may result in suspension or revocation" of a White House press pass.
The White House has long resented Acosta's work and that reached a boiling point on Nov. 7. It led to an awkward moment when a young female White House intern was sent to take a microphone from Acosta, who didn't immediately hand it over.
The White House revoked Acosta's press pass and CNN went to court and won a favorable ruling last week.
I can go for that. I can be patient when I know improvements are inbound.
I also agree with Put up or shut up. Progressives want to oust the old guard, then they need to get poppin. By Old guard, I don't mean age, but people who refuse to step down.
Which is why I favor term limits so heavily. These career Politicians need to know when it's time to step aside. I'm sure Chris Van Holen would have been a good speaker.
Shit, even the Republicans haven't had the same Speaker for the last ten years.
BARBARA LEE, BARBARA LEE!!!
BARBARA LEE, BARBARA LEE!!!
BARBARA LEE, BARBARA LEE!!!
BARBARA LEE, BARBARA LEE!!!
BARBARA LEE, BARBARA LEE!!!
BARBARA LEE, BARBARA LEE!!!
A real Progressive.
Just tweeted her to run.
16 Democrats Sign Letter Vowing To Oppose Nancy Pelosi
But can they actually block her?
The Cover Contest Weekly Winners ThreadSo much winning!!
"When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis
“It’s your party and you can cry if you want to.” - Captain Europe
One potential source of conflict is that Democrats have taken to embracing seniority in these institutions, which is part of the reason why their house leadership is pushing 80. For the last few years, women and minorities have achieved senior positions, so there is an argument that backing younger lesser-experienced candidates is discriminatory.
The Republicans pushing out Boehner, and Paul Ryan deciding he wants to leave Congress before he's fifty isn't exactly a positive.
Sincerely,
Thomas Mets