Texas is not more winnable. O’Rourke couldn’t beat Cruz. He’s not beating Trump there. And if he actually needs Texas to win he’ll never win a reelection. All the states you said are trending right we’re far closer to a Democrat win in the last election and way more winnable and have far superior demographics. But by all means run to the right. See how it works out.
Also Obama was popular because of an intellectual charisma he had that nobody is replicating, it wasn’t based on where he fell on the spectrum