Marvel-Netflix Relationship Insight from Matthew Ball (ex-Amazon Studios guy)

[Comic-Reader Lad]

Matthew Ball, the former head of strategy for Amazon Studios, made a lengthy 13-point post on Twitter regarding Netflix canceling Marvel shows including disputing that it had anything to do with Disney+.

https://twitter.com/ballmatthew/stat...49228513902593

1/ On Netflix’s Marvel cancellations, there seems to be some nuance that’s missing which tells you a lot about the future of OTT video in 2019. I’m sure both sides wanted a renewal, but the *absolute* not just relative value for both sides continued to decline. And thus no more.

2/ Netflix reportedly holds the right to keep renewing these shows, irrespective of Disney's preferences. Disney may be entering Netflix's territory with Disney+, but that didn’t drive the cancellations. Netflix was making a rationale decision based on quality, cost, viewership

3/ To point, the shows will remain NETFLIX ORIGINALS for years, Disney would have to buy them back (and says they don’t fit with Disney+’s positioning and won't be rebought) and there’s likely a hold on re-using the IP in TV (i.e. Disney can’t just launch a new Luke Cage in 2019)

4/ The reality is these shows were unprecentedly expensive (Netflix reportedly paying 60% markup), but they weren’t very good, audiences have undoubtedly declined precipitously (you can see this in the marketing spend) and it’s hard to grow audience in late seasons (con't)

5/ With old, mediocre shows it's just about viewer retention each year To point, Disney never put much effort in their Netflix shows. Daredevil had 3 showrunners in 3 seasons, Luke Cage was 2 in 2, Jessica Jones 2 in 3, etc. (And the teased MCU integration never happened!!)

6/ It's telling that the signature achievements and performers of the MCU are the 'Avengers' films, but the 'Defenders' was one of the least buzzy, least viewed titles (in part because the preceding two series, the back half of Luke Cage and all of Iron Fist, were very poor)

7/ The Netflix-Marvel deal was set at a time (Nov 2013) when NFLX needed big, buzzy IP that stood out and didn't need to be managed internally. Willing to pay whatever it took for it And note, the deal was meant to be single seasons. Despite its end, Marvel/Netflix was a success

8/ In 2019, Netflix has a huge internal pipeline - fueled by mega-deal with Shonda Rhymes, Ryan Murphy etc - and there's no markup for their own stuff And Netflix's audience and brand are much larger. This means Netflix's needs grew as the contribution of the Marvel shows waned

9/ And with Marvel now focused on their own SVOD shows (e.g. the MCU Loki series for Disney+), it’s hard to imagine Disney’s best foot forward was going to go towards aged Netflix series

10/ Netflix reportedly wanted to shorten the seasons, thereby reducing total spend and improving retention and quality (Netflix’s shows, especially the Marvel ones, are famously bloated). Reportedly from 13 eps to 6-8.

11/ Which means Disney would have to effectively reduce their revenue from 2/3rds, while keeping valuable characters unavailable for all other live action applications, while focusing on their own D2C. And while Netflix could force a renewal, they couldn’t do so at new terms

12/ So Disney liked balked. The value wasn’t there for either party. It once was. And everyone is now tired of financing another party’s enterprise value growth – the economic incentives (cost minimization and upside maximization) drive vertical integration.

Fin/ In short, it just wasn’t working for anyone. Including most of the series’ original fans.


Also - To give an numbers example: Marvel shows need 60% more viewership than one made by Netflix, or 30% more made by another producer, just to be even. If we assume Marvel shows have lost 50% of their S1 averages, it's possible DD S4 is 3x+ more expensive than alternatives

Also important: the importance of capital letter "Quality" is only growing over time. Netflix is increasingly focused on quality/impact over tonnage

To be super clear. The shows will not be revived on Disney+, Hulu, Amazon, etc
1/ Netflix would have blocking rights
2/ Netflix won't sell early seasons
3/ No one would want to drive their customers to Netflix for S1-3
4/ Characters are likely contractually hibernated for 1-2yrs
5/ Disney has said they don't fit Disney+, even when the season rights revert after 5+ years
6/ Talent has been released and is very hard to re-assemble (usually far costlier)
7/ There is more upside in starting fresh, with a different take (see Spider-Man Homecoming)

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Lots of great insight from an industry muckety-muck, but it all seems to spell the end of these series in ANY form on ANY alternative network/streaming service.

[BeastieRunner]

Lots of great insight from an industry muckety-muck, but it all seems to spell the end of these series in ANY form on ANY alternative network/streaming service.

1. Amazon hired/fired Ball after less than a year. I think that colors his opinion a bit. He doesn't seem to get streaming media. Check out his AT&T opinions. He doesn't get modern media.
2. Disney/Marvel have said the opposite of those characters/actors coming back.
3. Disney already said the adult stuff will be pushed to Hulu and that the supers will find a home there sooner than later.
4. It sounds more and more likely they are going to be rebooted via Avengers 4 with some actor changes for some of the cast. Case in point, Doctor Strange 2 has been the rumored home of a rebooted Iron Fist and he's also been rumored to be a part of a new Shang-Chi movie.
5. They have Punisher S2, Jones S3, and Defenders S2 still as part of the contract, that could be the last hurrah for this cast, too.

[rpmaluki]

Wasn't The Defenders the first to get cancelled? I remember it happened pretty quickly after S1.

[Jokerz79]

A neutral opinion is always the most valuable but this guy seemed to dislike if not out right hate the Marvel Netflix shows.

[Powerboy]

A neutral opinion is always the most valuable but this guy seemed to dislike if not out right hate the Marvel Netflix shows.

For instance, he says the Netflix shows were expensive but not very good, ignoring that Daredevil and DD 2 as well as both seasons of Jessica Jones were more critically acclaimed than most of the MCU movies.

[jetengine]

For instance, he says the Netflix shows were expensive but not very good, ignoring that Daredevil and DD 2 as well as both seasons of Jessica Jones were more critically acclaimed than most of the MCU movies.

Did they get viewers and cash though ? Cause thats what corporate care about

[BeastieRunner]

Did they get viewers and cash though ? Cause thats what corporate care about

Yes.

https://deadline.com/2018/12/daredev...ey-1202514072/
https://www.superherohype.com/tv/429...-for-daredevil

[Iron Fist]

This just feels like his speculation tinged with insider info, it's v unlikely he knows what the contracts contained.

Like how he speculated actors have been released from their contracts, there is no evidence to back up that claim, cancellation of a show does not release the actors. We know this from Hannibal's cancelation and Fuller spoke v openly about the actors not having been released yet so they could shop the show around.

He made some good points but I wouldn't put anymore weight on what he says that you would anyone else.

[Comic-Reader Lad]

Well, now it seems that Variety is backing up the Matthew Ball point above that Netflix has "blocking rights" for the shows for a couple of years after cancellation. Variety seems to be quoting its own sources, so it's not just a parroting of Ball. I actually put a lot of stock in what Ball said because I just didn't think he'd do such a lengthy tweet about something he knew nothing about, and now we're getting corroboration.

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/def...es-1203087219/

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Here's some Variety:

Sources tell Variety that the deal for the original four Marvel shows includes a clause that prevents the characters from appearing in any non-Netflix series or film for at least two years after cancellation. That means that “Daredevil,” “Luke Cage,” and “Iron Fist” — which were all canceled this year at Netflix — could not come to the Disney streaming service until 2020 at the earliest.

The chances of the shows returning either on their own or as a new installment of “The Defenders” is definitely a long shot, given the time frame. And even if they did go to Disney+ as soon as possible, they would be doing so without “Jessica Jones,” which is set to air its third season on Netflix sometime in 2019. If that show is canceled, which now seems likely but is by no means a guarantee, it could not go elsewhere until 2021.

Marvel and Netflix declined to comment.

Then there is “The Punisher,” a Marvel-Netflix show that was not part of the deal that spawned “The Defenders.” “The Punisher” stars Jon Bernthal, who first played the gun-toting vigilante in “Daredevil” Season 2 before the character was spun off into his own show. It was revealed on Wednesday that the second season of “The Punisher” will debut in January. Given that “The Punisher” did not fall under the original deal, the show’s fate beyond Season 2 is unknown at this time.
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So MAYBE we'll get more Punisher, but it does seem like the other 4 are done and over with. Unless Punisher gets incredible ratings for its upcoming season, that'll likely get canceled, too.

[Iron Fist]

Well, now it seems that Variety is backing up the Matthew Ball point above that Netflix has "blocking rights" for the shows for a couple of years after cancellation. Variety seems to be quoting its own sources, so it's not just a parroting of Ball. I actually put a lot of stock in what Ball said because I just didn't think he'd do such a lengthy tweet about something he knew nothing about, and now we're getting corroboration.

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/def...es-1203087219/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's some Variety:

Sources tell Variety that the deal for the original four Marvel shows includes a clause that prevents the characters from appearing in any non-Netflix series or film for at least two years after cancellation. That means that “Daredevil,” “Luke Cage,” and “Iron Fist” — which were all canceled this year at Netflix — could not come to the Disney streaming service until 2020 at the earliest.

The chances of the shows returning either on their own or as a new installment of “The Defenders” is definitely a long shot, given the time frame. And even if they did go to Disney+ as soon as possible, they would be doing so without “Jessica Jones,” which is set to air its third season on Netflix sometime in 2019. If that show is canceled, which now seems likely but is by no means a guarantee, it could not go elsewhere until 2021.

Marvel and Netflix declined to comment.

Then there is “The Punisher,” a Marvel-Netflix show that was not part of the deal that spawned “The Defenders.” “The Punisher” stars Jon Bernthal, who first played the gun-toting vigilante in “Daredevil” Season 2 before the character was spun off into his own show. It was revealed on Wednesday that the second season of “The Punisher” will debut in January. Given that “The Punisher” did not fall under the original deal, the show’s fate beyond Season 2 is unknown at this time.
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So MAYBE we'll get more Punisher, but it does seem like the other 4 are done and over with. Unless Punisher gets incredible ratings for its upcoming season, that'll likely get canceled, too.

This isn't really saying anything though. There's a cool down clause, which we already knew. But we also don't know how the long actors are in contract for. I mean it took two years between seasons 2 and 3, there's nothing that say they can't start pre-production or even production on stuff now and just wait til the elapsed embaro time then release it.

There's plenty of options for Hulu. Hulu won't be Disney's til mid 2019, production starts and a new season comes out late 2020. It doesn't disrupt much in the shows pre-existing turnaround tbh.

[Hypestyle]

well, congratulations to all of the folks who constantly complained about every aspect of the shows as they were released. Bravo. I guess nothing will be done with them for another several years, now.

[BeastieRunner]

Well, now it seems that Variety is backing up the Matthew Ball point above that Netflix has "blocking rights" for the shows for a couple of years after cancellation. Variety seems to be quoting its own sources, so it's not just a parroting of Ball. I actually put a lot of stock in what Ball said because I just didn't think he'd do such a lengthy tweet about something he knew nothing about, and now we're getting corroboration.

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/def...es-1203087219/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's some Variety:

Sources tell Variety that the deal for the original four Marvel shows includes a clause that prevents the characters from appearing in any non-Netflix series or film for at least two years after cancellation. That means that “Daredevil,” “Luke Cage,” and “Iron Fist” — which were all canceled this year at Netflix — could not come to the Disney streaming service until 2020 at the earliest.

The chances of the shows returning either on their own or as a new installment of “The Defenders” is definitely a long shot, given the time frame. And even if they did go to Disney+ as soon as possible, they would be doing so without “Jessica Jones,” which is set to air its third season on Netflix sometime in 2019. If that show is canceled, which now seems likely but is by no means a guarantee, it could not go elsewhere until 2021.

Marvel and Netflix declined to comment.

Then there is “The Punisher,” a Marvel-Netflix show that was not part of the deal that spawned “The Defenders.” “The Punisher” stars Jon Bernthal, who first played the gun-toting vigilante in “Daredevil” Season 2 before the character was spun off into his own show. It was revealed on Wednesday that the second season of “The Punisher” will debut in January. Given that “The Punisher” did not fall under the original deal, the show’s fate beyond Season 2 is unknown at this time.
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So MAYBE we'll get more Punisher, but it does seem like the other 4 are done and over with. Unless Punisher gets incredible ratings for its upcoming season, that'll likely get canceled, too.

This isn't really saying anything though. There's a cool down clause, which we already knew. But we also don't know how the long actors are in contract for. I mean it took two years between seasons 2 and 3, there's nothing that say they can't start pre-production or even production on stuff now and just wait til the elapsed embaro time then release it.

There's plenty of options for Hulu. Hulu won't be Disney's til mid 2019, production starts and a new season comes out late 2020. It doesn't disrupt much in the shows pre-existing turnaround tbh.

well, congratulations to all of the folks who constantly complained about every aspect of the shows as they were released. Bravo. I guess nothing will be done with them for another several years, now.

It's a 2 year cool down, chill out.

The other previous deals were 7 EFFIN YEARS (DD before he came back, Punisher, etc.) for cool downs!

This is a lot better contractual rest period than what I was expecting.

BTW, if they waited till 2020 to cancel the shows, there would've been no rest period. Just a rights reversion.

[Comic-Reader Lad]

It's a 2 year cool down, chill out.

The other previous deals were 7 EFFIN YEARS (DD before he came back, Punisher, etc.) for cool downs!

This is a lot better contractual rest period than what I was expecting.

BTW, if they waited till 2020 to cancel the shows, there would've been no rest period. Just a rights reversion.

Where does it say that there would be no rest period after 2020?

Netflix had the right to renew the show as often as it wanted to, and the 2 year block would begin after the cancellation whether it was 2018, 2020, 2030, or whenever. As far as Daredevil coming back, well it came back with a completely new premise and cast, and that's what we're talking about. The Netflix shows will NOT come back in their current forms when the block embargo has elapsed.

This isn't really saying anything though. There's a cool down clause, which we already knew. But we also don't know how the long actors are in contract for. I mean it took two years between seasons 2 and 3, there's nothing that say they can't start pre-production or even production on stuff now and just wait til the elapsed embaro time then release it.

There's plenty of options for Hulu. Hulu won't be Disney's til mid 2019, production starts and a new season comes out late 2020. It doesn't disrupt much in the shows pre-existing turnaround tbh.

Marvel TV isn't going to pay to produce a series that doesn't definitely have a home, and if it can't air for years, then what happens after the first non-Netflix season? How many seasons can Marvel produce and keep on the shelf until the block is lifted? No company is going to do this.

It does not matter that there were multiple years between seasons of Daredevil because the show had not been canceled at the time. If the show has NOT been canceled by Netflix, then the actors are still under contract even if there is an extended period of time between seasons, but I'd wager that there are even limits to this. Once the show HAS been canceled, then there is only a limited time that actors can be held before they are released. And it's not another two years.

In their current forms, these Netflix shows are definitely done.

[Powerboy]

Did they get viewers and cash though ? Cause thats what corporate care about

Apparently they did but that has nothing to do with his statement claiming they weren't good.

[Powerboy]

well, congratulations to all of the folks who constantly complained about every aspect of the shows as they were released. Bravo. I guess nothing will be done with them for another several years, now.

I doubt people complaining on a comic book board means squat. That's as worthless as Internet surveys. You can just as easily find hundreds of sites reviewing "Jessica Jones" as the best thing Marvel has ever done.