2018-2019 MLB Hot Stove Discussion

[Joker]

I just feel like he’s slightly overrated. But I’ve never been a fan of these huge contracts, either.

Odds Harper doesn’t become an albatross later in that contract? Is it really worth those prime years?

[PwrdOn]

I just feel like he’s slightly overrated. But I’ve never been a fan of these huge contracts, either.

Odds Harper doesn’t become an albatross later in that contract? Is it really worth those prime years?

Baseball's free agency system is a bit weird though because in order to qualify for free agency you need to play seven years at far below market value, which means that a lot of players are approaching their peak or possibly already on the downside of their careers by the time they sign their first big contract. If Harper signs a four year deal, there's virtually no chance that he improves during that time and is able to score another big payday afterwards, so it's in his best interest to secure as many years and guaranteed dollars as possible when he has maximum leverage. And yeah, this cost will be passed onto the fans, but I'd much rather see my beer money going to pay for the actual stars I came to the ballpark to see, not just lining the pockets of already wealthy owners who contribute basically nothing. What is ironic though, is that baseball is the one sport where superstars can actually get paid their true value, rather than being limited by arbitrary ceilings that only serve to redistribute revenue to role players, because it also happens to be the sport for which a single player probably impacts the game the least. Harper's "usage rate" will never be higher than 11.1%, so no matter how well he plays the Phillies will still need the rest of the lineup to produce in order to win ballgames.

[Hiromi]

Not bad for a player who hasn't finished top 10 in WAR in three years(2015 being the only year of his career to do so)

[C_Miller]

So this shores up Harper until he's 39 years old, which means unless a trade happens, he likely ends his career as a Philly. As a Mets fan, I worry about adding another weapon to a very tough Philadelphia will do, but like Hiromi said, it's not like he's regularly in the Top 10 of WAR. That said, I think this whole free agency debacle has underrated him in the eyes of a lot of people. He's a great player who is young. He has 4 more seasons before he even hits 30 and with the Phillies spending this season going crazy with acquisitions, I could see them making a big push in the NL Playoffs.

[DungeonmasterJim]

Another sports CEO/owner in some trouble. S.F. Giants CEO Larry Baer got into a public argument with his wife. He tried to physically take her cellphone out of her hand in which she falls off her chair in the struggle in public.

https://www.tmz.com/2019/03/01/larry...e-altercation/


EDIT:
2:36 PM PT -- MLB released a statement addressing the incident involving Baer ... saying, “Major League Baseball is aware of the incident and, just like any other situation like this, will immediately begin to gather the facts. We will have no further comment until this process is completed.”

[Hiromi]

which means unless a trade happens,

Unlikely given his no trade clause

It does mean Philly have at the least a good player for their corner OF for the next decade so there's that(not the perennial MVP contender the sports media liked to think he is a few years ago, if anything 2015 seems like an outlier more than the norm), though it'll be amusing to see how Philly's fans treat him in his first inevitable slump

Don't mean to sound like I'm undervaluing him here even last year when he was borderline garbage for over half of it he was still capable of getting on base if for no other reason than pitchers respected him enough to pitch around him if necessary, it's just that for 330 million, imagine what Trout will demand.

One would think the Phillies would kinda recall the last time they got locked into expensive contracts that lasted well past the players prime though, given it was only a couple years ago

[MRP]

Unlikely given his no trade clause

It does mean Philly has at the least a good player for their corner OF for the next decade so there's that(not the perennial MVP contender the sports media likes to think he is, if anything 2015 seems like an outlier more than the norm), though it'll be amusing to see how Philly's fans treat him in his first inevitable slump

One would think the Phillies would kinda recall the last time they got locked into expensive contracts that lasted well past the players prime though, given it was only a couple years ago

Well Harper does have the advantage of Citizen's Bank Park being a bandbox to right field which will inflate his power numbers for 80+ games a season. It's perfectly tailored for his swing and tendencies.

-M

[C_Miller]

Unlikely given his no trade clause

Did not know about that. I still can't picture a situation where he plays all 13 years with with the Phillies. But yeah, the Trout of it all will be interesting. He'll be two years older than Harper when it comes time for him to renew his contract. But he's by far the better player. Trout is likely the best player in decades. He strikes me as someone who's happy to play, so it'll be interesting if he decides to just look at potential contenders.

[Joker]

Trout deserves an absurd contract.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Trout deserves an absurd contract.

Chances are he'll get one. The STARTING price for Trout figures to be a bare minimum of $350 million. I suspect this might be the last true mega deal, depending on what happens when the CBA is renegotiated after 2021. IMO, it appears the trend of decade long, crazy money deals are going the way of the dinosaurs as stat geeks and SABR nerds inhabiting front offices today are using mountains of data to determine a player's worth, and the numbers they crunch are against the sort of contracts Stanton, Machado, Harper (and soon Trout) have gotten.

[MRP]

Chances are he'll get one. The STARTING price for Trout figures to be a bare minimum of $350 million. I suspect this might be the last true mega deal, depending on what happens when the CBA is renegotiated after 2021. IMO, it appears the trend of decade long, crazy money deals are going the way of the dinosaurs as stat geeks and SABR nerds inhabiting front offices today are using mountains of data to determine a player's worth, and the numbers they crunch are against the sort of contracts Stanton, Machado, Harper (and soon Trout) have gotten.

I think Mookie Betts is up for a contract before then too. I'd guess Betts gets more than Harper and less than Trout. He's a more complete player than Harper and will be younger than Trout when he signs. And I don't think he will take much of a hometown discount if the Sox renew him before his contract is up. He just got $20 million in arbitration, so he stands to get much more per year on the open market.

-M

[PwrdOn]

This whole multiple year free agency watch has to be just about the most annoying thing about sports these days. The Angels should either pay Trout what he's worth, or trade him to someone who will, and spare us two more years of speculation and idle chatter.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

This whole multiple year free agency watch has to be just about the most annoying thing about sports these days. The Angels should either pay Trout what he's worth, or trade him to someone who will, and spare us two more years of speculation and idle chatter.

I agree Anaheim should offer Trout a new deal, unless he's not interested in same and made those feelings plain to them. However, the Angels are damn sure are not going to trade him early, the fans would revolt if that happened. Meanwhile....

Angels contact MLB about Bryce Harper's talk of bringing Mike Trout to Phillies

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Bryce Harper made his spring training debut for the Phillies yesterday. He was the DH, walked twice in two AB's and scored on a Rhys Hoskins first inning home run. Harper will play right field on Monday.

[Hiromi]

Ronald Acuna Jr's last 8 spring training at bats:
Homer, walk, single, double, homer, single, double, triple