I agree with this, it is a fair analysis. I too think he's trying to help. For the past decade, since Civil War, Steve's biggest struggle, at least the theme the writing staff at Marvel keep revisiting, has been the line between freedom and security. Recent events, re: Secret Empire, has shown him that Americans seemingly prefer security over freedom/human rights, and as such I think he's coming to Scott from a genuine place.
Hydra!Cap was supported by a large segment of the population while he was running things. We saw that in the early Secret Empire panels and we're seeing it in the current Cap book when Alexa talked about middle America being 'forgotten' and just ripe for Russian takeover.
So that's why I think Cap said what he did, at least, having not read Uncanny X-Men, and seeing just these new pages, that's how I'm taking it. Cap's fear for the country is that they're primed for another Stevil to come along and that the public will use literally any excuse. The abundance of hostility towards the X-Men AND, to a lesser degree, towards the Avengers (because right now the American public isn't supporting them, either, thinking them 'traitors' for electing T'Challa chair) could easily make that happen.
Plus, there was this from Saladin Ahmed's recent Miles Morales issue...
MilesMorales.jpg
What we can infer here is that Steve has been secretly trying to help the X-Men, assuming Ahmed and Rosenberg talked about it beforehand and planned this.