If the Captain Marvel prediction holds when more websites post their opening weekend tracking numbers, then I'll feel more confident in the $140 million. I think we'll have more corroboration in the next few weeks. I'm not surprised to hear that the early shows are completely sold out. This being a Marvel movie that leads in to Endgame, I have no doubt that it'll open big. It'll be interesting to see just how big.
On my list of MCU openings above, what stood out to me was that except for Black Panther and Avengers, every MCU movie that opened above $140 million was a sequel. And realistically, Avengers was the culmination of Phase I, so that was based on the preceding movies. If Captain Marvel can open that big and not have significant drops in the following weeks, then that would be a great sign that the MCU can create new solo stars to sustain them after the Downey-Evans era is over with Endgame.
For me, the most important thing is that Captain Marvel is a good movie. Based on the trailer, I wasn't bowled over, but if the full movie is good and makes me care about the character, then it really doesn't matter how much or little the box office is to me. At things stand right now, unless the general audience reaction (not critics or MCU diehards) is orgasmic, I'm likely going to Blu-wait this movie and just hope that it's a good enough movie that it's a worthwhile addition to my collection.
I'm predicting $800 million worldwide, but I'll certainly adjust higher if it warrants. I lowballed Aquaman because I didn't think an Aquaman movie could do so well, but now I guess anything's possible.
March to May could be a very good and interesting few months for comics fans with Captain Marvel, Shazam, and Avengers in theaters. Of course, Shazam will do less that the other two financially, but if it gets good audience reaction, then it certainly indicates that both Marvel and DC will keep pulling more B and C list characters out of their asses and turn them into beloved and successful movie series. I'm glad to see the general public get exposed to the full breadth of what comics has to offer.