I'm sure I'll see it, if nothing else so I can discuss it!
I'm sure I'll see it, if nothing else so I can discuss it!
Every day is a gift, not a given right.
Based on what do you say this?
I believe Captain Marvel will do just fine at the box office. I've never said otherwise, so I'm not one of those who are rooting for the film to fail. In previous pages and other threads, I've said the movie could do $800 million worldwide.
However, I'm not seeing a Wonder Woman-esque pent-up frenzy from the general female population to see this movie, so I don't see Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman being spoken of in the same breath as far as being a feminist icon is concerned. Of course, that takes time, so we'll see if her movie and her appearance in Endgame lifts Captain Marvel to that status.
CM tracking $140m-$180m opening.
https://www.cbr.com/early-captain-ma...llion-opening/
Let's take a look at the opening weekends for every movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to see how well they've opened and how realistic a $140 million opening is.
This list is sorted by ranking in overall domestic box office, but the top 7 also had the openings over $140 million.
1 Black Panther $202,003,951
2 Avengers: Infinity War $257,698,183
3 Marvel's The Avengers $207,438,708
4 Avengers: Age of Ultron $191,271,109
5 Iron Man 3 $174,144,585
6 Captain America: Civil War $179,139,142
7 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $146,510,104
8 Spider-Man: Homecoming $117,027,503
9 Guardians of the Galaxy $94,320,883
10 Iron Man $98,618,668
11 Thor: Ragnarok $122,744,989
12 Iron Man 2 Par. $128,122,480
13 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $95,023,721
14 Doctor Strange $85,058,311
15 Ant-Man and the Wasp $75,812,205
16 Thor: The Dark World $85,737,841
17 Thor $65,723,338
18 Ant-Man $57,225,526
19 Captain America: The First Avenger $65,058,524
20 The Incredible Hulk $55,414,050
Here's the same list, but the opening weekend has been adjusted to the 2019 average ticket price of $8.83, so that we can compare all the MCU movies irrespective of when they were actually releasd. This list is sorted in descending order by opening weekend. In this list, we can see that Iron Man 2 jumps above $140 million opening. Because of the idiosyncrasies of the list, some opening weekends actually went down. I guess IMAX tickets throw things off.
1 Avengers: Infinity War $242,587,900
2 Marvel's The Avengers $225,576,800
3 Avengers: Age of Ultron $196,158,400
4 Black Panther $194,726,500
5 Iron Man 3 $183,496,000
6 Captain America: Civil War $181,191,100
7 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $144,545,700
8 Iron Man 2 $143,568,700
9 Iron Man $121,281,700
10 Thor: Ragnarok $118,065,200
11 Spider-Man: Homecoming $115,717,000
12 Guardians of the Galaxy $103,075,900
13 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $100,727,400
14 Thor: The Dark World $90,666,500
15 Doctor Strange $85,445,400
16 Ant-Man and the Wasp $75,812,200
17 Captain America: The First Avenger $72,351,000
18 Thor $72,002,100
19 The Incredible Hulk $68,148,500
20 Ant-Man $61,248,700
Here, we can see on either list that only a handful of MCU movies have opened up above $140 million even on the 2nd list where we adjust for ticket price increases. Regarding the linked article, CBR says that the estimate that they quote is really just from one website and it's really too early to get accurate estimates.
If indeed there is a higher demand for Captain Marvel tickets, it would be interesting to understand WHY the demand is there. Is it because people are excited for the character or because they feel the movie is an essential prelude for Avengers: Endgame? Or some other reason?
I would have thought the demand would be because people expect that Captain Marvel will be the next Wonder Woman. Whether that really translates to popularity and box office. we'll see. But right now I'd say its a girl power movie just like WW was, in the eyes of most women.
Every day is a gift, not a given right.
I am. Guess we'll see how that goes. My girls are more pumped than they were for Wonder Woman and all the women I work with are excited to see an ass-kicking woman that isn't there for male T&A fantasies. Anecdotes vs. anecdotes.
My guess since it's already breaking records, Captain Marvel will be a household name and icon when this is said and done. There needs to be more than JUST Diana ...
"Always listen to the crazy scientist with a weird van or armful of blueprints and diagrams." -- Vibranium
Without doing extensive research, it looks like the early tracking on most of those movies a month to six weeks out tended to be close to, or under estimating, the actual numbers. With a respectable track record for these projections, things look pretty solid for Captain Marvel. Also, I suspect most of the public doesn't know she will have anything to do with the Endgame.
If they do, I would expect that could be bad news for Captain Marvel, as I doubt Endgame will be more than an end credits scene in her movie.
Last edited by AJBopp; 01-14-2019 at 03:44 PM.
So here's the list again with the actual numbers followed by their box office projections 3-6 weeks out. I couldn't find numbers for 4 films, and I think only 2 or three failed to beat the projected box office totals, and most did so by a considerable margin.
I'd say Captain Marvel's prospects are looking pretty rosy.
Last edited by AJBopp; 01-14-2019 at 07:02 PM.
John campea says first night showings are selling out and it took him some tries to get a showing not sold out! (at about 7:29)