2019 Box Office Busts

[TriggerWarning]

Well, you would know better than the writers at Deadline. I just wanted to bring it up. Feel free to dismiss it.

I'll just say that after opening weekend most people and media outlets were predicting Endgame was going to beat Force Awakens domestically and Avatar worldwide whereas I (check the will Endgame make 3 billion thread) predicted CORRECTLY that Endgame wouldn't even come close to beating Force Awakens despite the early lead and it would be iffy it beat Avatar. Current estimates now are that it will finish about 70 million behind Force Awakens domestically and if it actually overtakes Avatar it won't be until September.

For whatever reason I find interest in watching movie profits and takes and I look at boxofficemojo and all their charts frequently. Thus I know the 1.5-2.0 rule of thumb for worldwide takes - it varies because different countries, especially China, have different licensing fees to show movies there and different theater takes. Plus marketing on movies like Endgame is extreme compared to a movie like Brightburn.

Lastly your Deadline article is EXTREMELY inaccurate because it only considered domestic take. Movies are worldwide now so you have to consider worldwide take - for instance Endgame has made 70% of its money overseas. So leaving it out as Deadline did basically means they don't care about reality whereas I'd rather talk about the real numbers which after yesterday is 18,902,128 for Brightburn, a movie that had a six million dollar budget. Thus its already at triple its budget. It will experience around a 55 to 70% drop this coming weekend which will add another 5-7 million to its take worldwide which will put it squarely in the 4 times its budget range. It will then make another 3-5 million worldwide over the rest of its run finishing out somewhere in the 25 -29 million range most likely. Horror movies tend to have huge drops from 1st to 2nd weekend so 70% might be reasonable but on the other hand its also sort of a super flick which tend to have 50-60% drops. Exactly where it ends depends on which it plays closer to.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

In looking at Sony/Screen Gems and the horror studio here is some budgets of films the last couple years.


2019 :

The Intruder : $8 million


2018 :

Slender Man : $10 million
Searching : $1 million
Proud Mary : $14 million
Possession of Hannah Grace : $7.7 million



2017:

Underworld : Blood Wars : $35 million
Resident Evil : Final Chapter : $40 million
Keep Watching : $5 million


2016 :

Don't Breathe : $9.9 million
When the Bough Breaks : $10 million
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies : $28 million


This is going back a few years as we see. But the usual formula Sony/Screen Gems has is these type of horror films that don't exceed over $14-15 million . Many coming in under $10 million. The only times they departed was the big sci-fi/action film franchise films in Resident Evil and Underworld. They seemingly tried to launch one with Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. But it bombed as we saw.

Brightburn is one of those films that seem to follow budget wise where its usually priced Sony/Screen Gem.

[TriggerWarning]

Brightburn has now made 24 million total and 14 of that domestically. On a six million budget this is a win for the movie. It also dropped 70.5% from last weekend just and I said 70% would be a reasonable and expected drop if it plays like a horror movie rather than a superhero movie.

[Colossus1980]

I'll just say that after opening weekend most people and media outlets were predicting Endgame was going to beat Force Awakens domestically and Avatar worldwide whereas I (check the will Endgame make 3 billion thread) predicted CORRECTLY that Endgame wouldn't even come close to beating Force Awakens despite the early lead and it would be iffy it beat Avatar. Current estimates now are that it will finish about 70 million behind Force Awakens domestically and if it actually overtakes Avatar it won't be until September.

I never thought it would have come close to beating Force Awakes either. FA had the plum Christmas holidays and no way Endgame could keep up the pace on the weekdays even with that massive opening weekend. Even now it's struggling to beat Avatar. Endgame had three countries that crossed over 100M while Avatar had 9, although China was a massive 614M.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

I never thought it would have come close to beating Force Awakes either. FA had the plum Christmas holidays and no way Endgame could keep up the pace on the weekdays even with that massive opening weekend. Even now it's struggling to beat Avatar. Endgame had three countries that crossed over 100M while Avatar had 9, although China was a massive 614M.

Endgame is giving it a good run right now. The film is $74.9 million away from passing Avator. If it does it....well its gonna be quite the feat. I have to wonder if Disney will try for it ? They could push to add more screens and go for that mark.

[Robotman]

I know it’s still early but Godzilla’s $49 million opening has to be disappointing for WB. Considering the first movie opened with $93 million. I think it’s just another example of too much competition and Hollywood cannibalizing itself.

[Colossus1980]

I know it’s still early but Godzilla’s $49 million opening has to be disappointing for WB. Considering the first movie opened with $93 million. I think it’s just another example of too much competition and Hollywood cannibalizing itself.

That's a horrible opening for a sequel. I liked the first movie and the sequel looks like great dumb fun. Unfortunately I think the GA is tired of Giant Monsters/Kaijus as this movie and Pacific Rim 2 showed. Godzilla should be retired. North America doesn't seem interested and I wonder how this pitiful opening will affect the Kong vs Godzilla sequel. Just horrible.

[regnak]

That's a horrible opening for a sequel. I liked the first movie and the sequel looks like great dumb fun. Unfortunately I think the GA is tired of Giant Monsters/Kaijus as this movie and Pacific Rim 2 showed. Godzilla should be retired. North America doesn't seem interested and I wonder how this pitiful opening will affect the Kong vs Godzilla sequel. Just horrible.

2 factors in play here. 5 year gap is too long. G14 opened high but had weak legs which says a lot of people did not like it. The WB marketing machine gave Edwards a golden opportunity to start the monster verse but he failed to deliver a crowd pleasing movie. That opening shows the potential was there for Godzilla but Garth Edwards and the WB blew it.

[sunofdarkchild]

The new Godzilla also made $130 million overseas so far so worldwide gross has already surpassed its production budget.

[Jokerz79]

The new Godzilla also made $130 million overseas so far so worldwide gross has already surpassed its production budget.

It really hasn't

1: The budget is said to be 170 to 200 million.

2: That doesn't include marketing which on a film like this is in the 100 million dollar era.

3: Studio doesn't get all the box office in the U.S. it's about 65 to 70% percent and less in International Markets the rest is kept by the theaters.

[jetengine]

This was a shitty year to release it frankly. This is Disneys year with a movie out nearly every month.

[Jokerz79]

One big bright side to Godzilla 2 even if it underperforms Godzilla VS Kong is already in the can.

[Immortal Weapon]

That's a horrible opening for a sequel. I liked the first movie and the sequel looks like great dumb fun. Unfortunately I think the GA is tired of Giant Monsters/Kaijus as this movie and Pacific Rim 2 showed. Godzilla should be retired. North America doesn't seem interested and I wonder how this pitiful opening will affect the Kong vs Godzilla sequel. Just horrible.

I find this ridiculous. GA is tired of kaiju movies when there's only been Godzilla, Kong and Pacific Rim. I'm not seeing it.

[Jokerz79]

I find this ridiculous. GA is tired of kaiju movies when there's only been Godzilla, Kong and Pacific Rim. I'm not seeing it.

I like Kaiju films but in the U.S. it always has been more of a niche market.

[Kirby101]

The GA like good movies. They weren't tired of PR2, it just wasn't a very good movie, and the first one was not a giant hit. Kong Skull Island was a big hit, because it was good. This one seems mixed and will probably perform as such.