2019 Box Office Busts

[AJBopp]

To get back on topic since certain people will keep arguing about Dark Phoenix forever when everything has already been said. With the big movies yet to come this summer what is your prediction for bomb potential? The two that look the most iffy to me at the moment are the Angry Birds Movie 2 and Angel Has Fallen.

Doubt it will be a bust, but at this point I wouldn't be at all surprised if Spiderman underperforms. People just haven't gotten into the habit of going to the theater this summer, and I think the billion dollar box office many are expecting is a long shot at this point.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Its been a couple weeks for a brief update.



Total Box Office : $244+ million (Worldwide)

Total Production Budget : $110+ million

As June rolled along and numerous films landed during the summer box office season , Sony tried a reboot of its Men in Black franchise. This one starred Chris Hemsworth & Tessa Thompson as the main lead stars. Which both had roles in Avengers franchise as well as Thor films. Then you had Liam Neeson and Emma Thompson in supporting roles for this as well. Everything seemed geared to relaunch the MIB franchise well with a funny trailer by Hemsworth.

But then the film arrived with a thud and reviews were pretty bad. Critics ravaged it and reports are the director and producer battled on set over the direction of the film. With the producer literally taking it over and having new pages of script and dialogue done on set. Which as we know never works . The end result was this bust for Sony as the film has only done $77+ million domestically and has dropped out of the top 10 this past week.

[Immortal Weapon]

Fox lost $170 million with Dark Phoenix flop
https://www.thewrap.com/disney-fox-d...medium=ios_app

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Fox lost $170 million with Dark Phoenix flop
https://www.thewrap.com/disney-fox-d...medium=ios_app

As the article points out Dark Phoenix was part of the $170 million loss as a big part of it. But the overall unit lost major money and Disney as Iger points out will be a year or 2 to get the 21st Century films on track with who they place there.

Here is an interesting stat thus far. Of the 5 major Fox films that they released this year ...2 of them was downright box office busts ; Dark Phoenixs & The Kid who Would Be King (which some estimated lost $50+ million for the studio). One of them being debated still (Alita) if Disney will approve a sequel . Fox insiders claimed the film needed to make $350 million worldwide ; others are saying it was between $400-500 million.

The best films that turned small little profits for Fox were films they basically didn't expect much from in 2019 thus far. Breakthrough and Stuber (which won't do huge , but hell its budget was only $16 million).

Disney will examine whats on film slate in 2020 for sure. But the warning signs for Fox began last year if no one remembers. Other than Deadpool 2 , Maze Runner 3 and Bohemian Rhapsody the films that bombed for Fox in 2018 was a sign things wasn't well there.


The Predator
Red Sparrow
Bad Times at El Royale
The Darkest Minds

So there was warning signs here yet no one realized it...least of all Disney. Now they know whats ahead and have started shelving projects etc to get things set for 2020 and 2021 for the studio.

[AJBopp]

So there was warning signs here yet no one realized it...least of all Disney. Now they know whats ahead and have started shelving projects etc to get things set for 2020 and 2021 for the studio.

I very much doubt that the most successful studio in history was oblivious of the problematic nature of FOX's movies. FOX wasn't bought for their current or future films. They were bought for the library and a couple of franchises.

You'd also have to assume that Comcast was ignorant of FOX's movie slate, which is equally unlikely.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

I very much doubt that the most successful studio in history was oblivious of the problematic nature of FOX's movies. FOX wasn't bought for their current or future films. They were bought for the library and a couple of franchises.

You'd also have to assume that Comcast was ignorant of FOX's movie slate, which is equally unlikely.

According to Iger they thought things would be better with the movie slate in 2019. They projected things for Fox to actually do better than what they saw happen.

Disney obviously looked at the movie slate in 2019 as Iger himself praised Ford vs Ferrari coming soon. He alao said its gonna take a year or 2 to get things where they want them with Fox film slate.

Yes Disney bought the IPs and more for streaming. But they also saw Fox release a couple big films in 2018 and obviously expected to see Dark Phoenix and Alita do huge box office.

[AJBopp]

According to Iger they thought things would be better with the movie slate in 2019. They projected things for Fox to actually do better than what they saw happen.

Disney obviously looked at the movie slate in 2019 as Iger himself praised Ford vs Ferrari coming soon. He alao said its gonna take a year or 2 to get things where they want them with Fox film slate.

Yes Disney bought the IPs and more for streaming. But they also saw Fox release a couple big films in 2018 and obviously expected to see Dark Phoenix and Alita do huge box office.

What would you have expected Iger to say? That they knew going in the films were junk but they were going to release them anyway?

[SUPERECWFAN1]

What would you have expected Iger to say? That they knew going in the films were junk but they were going to release them anyway?

Again I think Iger and Disney expected more than what happened here given that they had a 1st hand look at the films and slate. They have likely seen every film already that is done from 2019-2020 . Its why he praised Ford vs Ferrari in the article. They have hopes it does well.

They were likely expecting $500+ million from Dark Phoenix since the last one did around that number. There is still time Fox's film slate can cut the losses down as well. They have 4 and half months ahead and have several films ahead.


The Art of Racing in the Rain
Ready or Not (Fox Searchlight)
Ad Astra
The Woman in the Window**
Ford vs. Ferrari
Spies in Disguise *

Spies in Disguise releases the final weekend of 2019 so its likely gonna be on 2020 tally. But Ford vs Ferrari and Ad Astra seem to be the big ones left for the year from Fox. What is shocking is Ad Astra with Brad Pitt has a budget of $87.8+ million and FvF has one of $97.8+ million apiece with its cast.

I was gonna list the Woman in the Window but Disney has already stepped in and pushed it back. Due to bad test screenings the company its reported are retooling the film and will release it sometime in 2020. Also that label Fox 2000 is over after this film.

[Divine Spark]

They were likely expecting $500+ million from Dark Phoenix since the last one did around that number.

The studio projection was that it would open at 40-50 million, iirc. So less they expected less than Apocalypse.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

The studio projection was that it would open at 40-50 million, iirc. So less they expected less than Apocalypse.

They had a $79+ million opening for that final weekend of May for the 4 day weekend. So that helped them domestically for sure there in 2016. It had a 65% drop the 2nd weekend.

Dark Phoenix had a $32+ million opening for 3 days and had a 71% drop.


Its true Disney expected that , months earlier it projected as a $50-55 million opening. Also one site claimed Disney expected over $100+ million domestically as a run for Dark Phoenix . So things came in way lower than what they expected.

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/d...nd-1203236209/

[Pinsir]

I very much doubt that the most successful studio in history was oblivious of the problematic nature of FOX's movies. FOX wasn't bought for their current or future films. They were bought for the library and a couple of franchises.

Besides the dubious claim that Disney is the most successful movie studio in history, Disney has repeatedly demonstrated itself to be inept. ESPN consistently bleeds money and they've all but acknowledged that they've mishandled the Star Wars franchise. The only reason why Disney has been allowed to save face is because of the MCU and that had nothing to do with Disney.

You'd also have to assume that Comcast was ignorant of FOX's movie slate, which is equally unlikely.

The Comcast bid might not have been genuine as it did make make Disney raise their price. Also, the exact opposite could be true; there is no reason to assume Comcast was a competent actor either.

[Kirby101]

Besides the dubious claim that Disney is the most successful movie studio in history, Disney has repeatedly demonstrated itself to be inept. ESPN consistently bleeds money and they've all but acknowledged that they've mishandled the Star Wars franchise. The only reason why Disney has been allowed to save face is because of the MCU and that had nothing to do with Disney.

You might want to look at the box office for their animated films, Pixar and the live action remakes before you say they "just" have the MCU.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Besides the dubious claim that Disney is the most successful movie studio in history, Disney has repeatedly demonstrated itself to be inept. ESPN consistently bleeds money and they've all but acknowledged that they've mishandled the Star Wars franchise. The only reason why Disney has been allowed to save face is because of the MCU and that had nothing to do with Disney.



The Comcast bid might not have been genuine as it did make make Disney raise their price. Also, the exact opposite could be true; there is no reason to assume Comcast was a competent actor either.

You might want to look at the box office for their animated films, Pixar and the live action remakes before you say they "just" have the MCU.

They have so mishandled Star Wars that of the 4 films released ; 3 of them globally have done $1+ billion dollars in box office revenue. While Solo did bomb at box office ; the other films clearly have done so well box office wise its clear they didn't mishandle that one.

Disney had a bust with Dumbo but have done $1+ billion box office with live action versions of Aladdin and Lion King this year.

Honestly Disney has its rare lumps. They approved John Carter and watched it bomb a few years back. They did Tomorrowland and it bombed. Yet as a company they hit usually on things 9 times out of 10 and did with this year.

[Pinsir]

You might want to look at the box office for their animated films, Pixar and the live action remakes before you say they "just" have the MCU.

I mean even with the Dark Phoenix fiasco, people are citing the fact that because its not an MCU film to say its failure doesn't matter. The blinding success of the MCU allows people to ignore Walt Disney's other failings, which I do not think you could do if it was just their traditional output.

[Immortal Weapon]

I mean even with the Dark Phoenix fiasco, people are citing the fact that because its not an MCU film to say its failure doesn't matter. The blinding success of the MCU allows people to ignore Walt Disney's other failings, which I do not think you could do if it was just their traditional output.

MCU success didn't make people overlook the failure of Solo. All the Disney's films that fall outside of MCU, Star Wars and Pixar don't do so hot. The remake of Dimbo was a flop.