Originally Posted by
Comic-Reader Lad
We currently have box office results for Captain Marvel as of Day 12 (Tuesday, March 19).
So, let's take a look at where the other Marvel Cinematic Universe movies were in their respective Day 12s to see how Captain Marvel is tracking.
Each MCU film has had its box office number adjusted to 2019's average ticket price. This is not an exact science as some movies do better in IMAX than others which skews things.
For this reason, I did not adjust Infinity War, Black Panther, or Ragnarok as this would have resulted in their box office numbers going DOWN. There are other snafus when adjusting as the adjusted total on the final reported day of release will be a different dollar amount than the adjusted total overall (e.g. Avengers' final day of release had an adjusted total of $721,498,400 as of day 133, but adjusting Avengers total by itself only results in $694,237,400).
Caveats aside, this is the best estimate we can make:
MARVEL CINEMATIC UNIVERSE - BOX OFFICE AS OF DAY 12 OF RELEASE:
1. Avengers: Infinity War - $472,064,425 (unadjusted)
2. Avengers - $433,121,200 ($389,473,290 unadjusted)
3. Black Panther - $421,915,776 (unadjusted)
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $340,635,100 ($324,791,589 unadjusted)
5. Iron Man 3 - $317,584,000 ($294,723,579 unadjusted)
6. Captain America: Civil War - $317,183,600 ($306,645,905 unadjusted)
7. Captain Marvel - $277,683,764
8. Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2 - $261,385,000 ($259,069,294 unadjusted)
9. Iron Man 2 - $250,366,400 ($218,481,425 unadjusted)
10. Iron Man - $232,708,700 ($185,033,014 unadjusted)
11. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $222,734,000 ($220,267,368 unadjusted)
12. Thor: Ragnarok - $220,256,852 unadjusted
13. Guardians of the Galaxy - $210,628,300 ($188,469,200 unadjusted)
14. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $181,112,400
15. Doctor Strange - $163,658,000 ($159,308,268 unadjusted)
16. Thor: The Dark World - $162,255,100 ($150,036,561 unadjusted)
17. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $145,376,000 ($142,156,135 unadjusted)
18. Captain America: The First Avenger - $141,570,300 ($124,481,534 unadjusted)
19. Thor - $140,493,800 ($125,402,026 unadjusted)
20. The Incredible Hulk - $128,329,100 ($102,037,960 unadjusted)
21. Ant-Man - $124,568,400 ($113,808,316 unadjusted)
If Captain Marvel stands at $277,683,764 as of Day 12 (Tues, Mar 19), it's on track to make above GOTG 2, but less than Civil War.
GOTG 2 ended up with an adjusted domestic gross of $393,315,500, while Civil War ended up with $422,199,800 adjusted.
To me, this means that CM is assured to cross $400 million domestically and end up pretty much around where Wonder Woman ended up which was $416,423,200 ($412,563,408 unadjusted).
That's kind of interesting.
Of course, globally, I still think CM will crack $1 billion, so this is another example of a superhero movie performing much better overseas, while Wonder Woman was almost a 50-50 split.
Going back to Captain Marvel, given that box office results are often reported UNADJUSTED, CM's final total should look even more impressive because if it gets to around $420 million domestically, CM would end up being the #5 MCU film domestically and land above Iron Man 3 ($409,013,994 unadjusted), but below Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459,005,868 unadjusted).