Will Captain Marvel make $1 Billion at the Box Office

[Midvillian1322]

Domestically, I think US might give it some problems. That movie has been getting rave reviews.

All this being said, I think Captain Marvel should get to $1 billion because of its strong holds internationally.

Yea but even a Huge opening for that type of movies is probaly mess then a meh opening for Dumbo or Hellboy. Dont get me wrong I'm watching us first weekend but I doubt he doing the type of money that would really hurt Captain Marvel.

[Killerbee911]

Lets call Avengers endgame the ticking clock

It needs about another 100 million worldwide this week which should put at around 860 million( US comes out this week and Dumbo). Then following week it needs about 50 million ish which puts it at 900 million( Shazam and Pet Cemetery). Then following week makes 25 Million(Hellboy), The next week ain't anything challenging in the theaters BUT people are prepping for endgame which means watching all MCU movies again which means watching Captain Marvel again so it gets a slight boost so lets say 25 million again. Putting at 950 ish million before endgame start buzzsawing stuff. I think it will do better than what I am guessing.Plus I think it makes because Marvel is going to use their influence into getting theaters to keep a long enough run to where they get it.

[kjn]

Some back of the envelope guesstimates lead me to believe it will do similarly to Aquaman, i.e. circa $1,140M. $400M of that will be the North America market.

[Scott Taylor]

Yah, its going to be over a billion for sure. But I think it will stop short of Aquaman numbers. And that is a statement I never foresaw me saying!

[Comic-Reader Lad]

Yah, its going to be over a billion for sure. But I think it will stop short of Aquaman numbers. And that is a statement I never foresaw me saying!

In what respect? That Captain Marvel will go over a billion or that it won't do as well as Aquaman?

I voted it'll go over a billion. How could it not?

[GOLGO 13]

I hope it does. Just to trigger the snowflake trolls. The "Man O Sphere" will soil their pants while they scream SJW illuminati/conspiracy. LULZ!

[Colossus1980]

Domestically, I think US might give it some problems. That movie has been getting rave reviews.

All this being said, I think Captain Marvel should get to $1 billion because of its strong holds internationally.

I think US is going to take the weekend receipts. The reviews are a stunning 100% after 58 reviews.

Quite impressed by CM. Thought it might top out around 250-280M domestic. Maybe 750-800WW. Impressive it's going to surpass those numbers easily.

[BeastieRunner]

I think US is going to take the weekend receipts. The reviews are a stunning 100% after 58 reviews.

Quite impressed by CM. Thought it might top out around 250-280M domestic. Maybe 750-800WW. Impressive it's going to surpass those numbers easily.

To your point, it already passed 750 (it's at 764 this morning) at the 10 day mark.

[Scott Taylor]

In what respect? That Captain Marvel will go over a billion or that it won't do as well as Aquaman?

I voted it'll go over a billion. How could it not?

That I never foresaw that Aquaman would end up being any kind of measuring stick for movies this year. But there we go. Don't get me wrong, I loved Aquaman. Last year though this situation where Aquaman sets the bar was unforeseen.

[Powerboy]

Of course, if it stops at 990 million, there will be a contingent that declares it a flop.

Gotta agree with Scott Taylor that I never in my wildest dreams thought "Aquaman" would be pushing a billion dollars and be one of the biggest superhero movies ever made.

[TriggerWarning]

Over at Box Office Mojo they always run comparisons between movies and what they make and there is one right now comparing CM to two of the Hunger Games movies as well as Rogue One and Dark Knight. Right now CM is pacing between the two Hunger Games movies, and well behind the other two. The two HG movies ended with $424 and $408 million domestically. Using that as a predictor it only needs to make about 600 million internationally to break a billion and its already at 509 million. So it should make it I'd think though the international dropoffs seem to be steeper than in the US (it dropped 73% in China from its 1st to 2nd weekend).


https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdo...roguevhgdk.htm

[TriggerWarning]

Of course, if it stops at 990 million, there will be a contingent that declares it a flop.

Gotta agree with Scott Taylor that I never in my wildest dreams thought "Aquaman" would be pushing a billion dollars and be one of the biggest superhero movies ever made.

If it gets that close there will be a push to force it over the billion mark much like happened with Black Panther domestically. BP was stuck at 699 million domestically from June 2 to August 1st with zero shot at 700 million given it was at this point out on video and its decreasing theater count and diminishing box office each weekend left that last little bit out of reach. It was to the point it was only taking in hundreds of dollars a day nationwide. On August 1st (a Wednesday) it only did $400 nationwide and still needed $44,000 to hit 700 million. Then suddenly out of nowhere beginning August 2 it started bringing in over $10,000 a day for the next week to give it that final push to 700 million. Obviously someone at the studio or fan with money to burn started buying up tickets to give it the push because of the significance of the number.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...arvel2017b.htm

[Kusanagi]

If it gets that close there will be a push to force it over the billion mark much like happened with Black Panther domestically. BP was stuck at 699 million domestically from June 2 to August 1st with zero shot at 700 million given it was at this point out on video and its decreasing theater count and diminishing box office each weekend left that last little bit out of reach. It was to the point it was only taking in hundreds of dollars a day nationwide. On August 1st (a Wednesday) it only did $400 nationwide and still needed $44,000 to hit 700 million. Then suddenly out of nowhere beginning August 2 it started bringing in over $10,000 a day for the next week to give it that final push to 700 million. Obviously someone at the studio or fan with money to burn started buying up tickets to give it the push because of the significance of the number.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...arvel2017b.htm

Wasn't Black Panther already at a billion at that point? Since it made 600+ million world wide?

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...arvel2017b.htm

[AJBopp]

In that case, I'd say it has minimal competition until "Endgame" comes out on April 26. Mind you, I say that as someone who kind of like the idea of a CGI remake of "Dumbo" and who is really looking forward to "Shazam". But both of them are more in the total children's movies category in most peoples' minds.

I think it will reach a billion. Two billion is really pushing credulity.

I think it's interesting how much thought Disney has put in to marketing Dumbo. I don't think it's a coincidence that MasterChef Junior had a circus-themed episode tonight. I also think it's curious that the season was supposed to start a month ago, announced late last fall, and then shortly after the first of the year the entire season was pushed back without explanation.

There seems to have been a lot of activity to coincide with the release of Dumbo, and Disney doesn't even own the TV FOX.

[Powerboy]

If it gets that close there will be a push to force it over the billion mark much like happened with Black Panther domestically. BP was stuck at 699 million domestically from June 2 to August 1st with zero shot at 700 million given it was at this point out on video and its decreasing theater count and diminishing box office each weekend left that last little bit out of reach. It was to the point it was only taking in hundreds of dollars a day nationwide. On August 1st (a Wednesday) it only did $400 nationwide and still needed $44,000 to hit 700 million. Then suddenly out of nowhere beginning August 2 it started bringing in over $10,000 a day for the next week to give it that final push to 700 million. Obviously someone at the studio or fan with money to burn started buying up tickets to give it the push because of the significance of the number.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...arvel2017b.htm

You may be right. I can't find any articles addressing it's last week boost. The very fact that it was the last week could motivate people to see it one last time at the theater. I'm one of those people who did not see it until it's last week because I heard how good it was and decided that if I ever wanted to see it on the big screen, I'd better overcome my dislike of sitting in theaters and go see it.

I would not doubt that a few celebrities might buy hundreds of tickets and genuinely give them to people. I have no evidence that it's true. For all I know, a lot of movies may have a boost right at the end when everyone knows they are about to be gone.

But you may be right that some wealthy fans helped boost it a measly $40,000 (measly by these standards) to make it reach a domestic $700 million, an elite club. Then again, getting a few theaters to hold it over could have accomplished the same thing.

But I agree with your basic point. If it's that close that it could practically trip and fall over the finish line, they'll find a way to push it over not because it's "Captain Marvel" but because it's any movie that would gain that status.