Will Captain Marvel make $1 Billion at the Box Office

[TriggerWarning]

Wasn't Black Panther already at a billion at that point? Since it made 600+ million world wide?

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...arvel2017b.htm

Domestically (United States) it was stuck at 699 million until it got nudged over by someone buying up lots of tickets. 700 million domestic meant more than any international number for this movie because it became only the 3rd movie to ever break 700 million in the United States. BP underperformed internationally relative to most comic book movies so international number isn't as meaningful. BP did 52% of its take domestically and 48% internationally whereas most comic book movies are more like Avengers Infinity War which did 32% domestically and 68% internationally. Thor: Rangnorak did 37% domestically and 63% internationally. Spider Man Homecoming did 38% domestically and 62% internationally. While BP's numbers were still good it definitely didn't perform like other Marvel movies do overseas. Or maybe it just way overperformed domestically relative to these other movies.

[Comic-Reader Lad]

We currently have box office results for Captain Marvel as of Day 12 (Tuesday, March 19).

So, let's take a look at where the other Marvel Cinematic Universe movies were in their respective Day 12s to see how Captain Marvel is tracking.

Each MCU film has had its box office number adjusted to 2019's average ticket price. This is not an exact science as some movies do better in IMAX than others which skews things.

For this reason, I did not adjust Infinity War, Black Panther, or Ragnarok as this would have resulted in their box office numbers going DOWN. There are other snafus when adjusting as the adjusted total on the final reported day of release will be a different dollar amount than the adjusted total overall (e.g. Avengers' final day of release had an adjusted total of $721,498,400 as of day 133, but adjusting Avengers total by itself only results in $694,237,400).

Caveats aside, this is the best estimate we can make:

MARVEL CINEMATIC UNIVERSE - BOX OFFICE AS OF DAY 12 OF RELEASE:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - $472,064,425 (unadjusted)
2. Avengers - $433,121,200 ($389,473,290 unadjusted)
3. Black Panther - $421,915,776 (unadjusted)
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $340,635,100 ($324,791,589 unadjusted)
5. Iron Man 3 - $317,584,000 ($294,723,579 unadjusted)
6. Captain America: Civil War - $317,183,600 ($306,645,905 unadjusted)
7. Captain Marvel - $277,683,764
8. Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2 - $261,385,000 ($259,069,294 unadjusted)
9. Iron Man 2 - $250,366,400 ($218,481,425 unadjusted)
10. Iron Man - $232,708,700 ($185,033,014 unadjusted)
11. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $222,734,000 ($220,267,368 unadjusted)
12. Thor: Ragnarok - $220,256,852 unadjusted
13. Guardians of the Galaxy - $210,628,300 ($188,469,200 unadjusted)
14. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $181,112,400
15. Doctor Strange - $163,658,000 ($159,308,268 unadjusted)
16. Thor: The Dark World - $162,255,100 ($150,036,561 unadjusted)
17. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $145,376,000 ($142,156,135 unadjusted)
18. Captain America: The First Avenger - $141,570,300 ($124,481,534 unadjusted)
19. Thor - $140,493,800 ($125,402,026 unadjusted)
20. The Incredible Hulk - $128,329,100 ($102,037,960 unadjusted)
21. Ant-Man - $124,568,400 ($113,808,316 unadjusted)

If Captain Marvel stands at $277,683,764 as of Day 12 (Tues, Mar 19), it's on track to make above GOTG 2, but less than Civil War.

GOTG 2 ended up with an adjusted domestic gross of $393,315,500, while Civil War ended up with $422,199,800 adjusted.

To me, this means that CM is assured to cross $400 million domestically and end up pretty much around where Wonder Woman ended up which was $416,423,200 ($412,563,408 unadjusted).

That's kind of interesting.

Of course, globally, I still think CM will crack $1 billion, so this is another example of a superhero movie performing much better overseas, while Wonder Woman was almost a 50-50 split.

Going back to Captain Marvel, given that box office results are often reported UNADJUSTED, CM's final total should look even more impressive because if it gets to around $420 million domestically, CM would end up being the #5 MCU film domestically and land above Iron Man 3 ($409,013,994 unadjusted), but below Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459,005,868 unadjusted).

[JKtheMac]

BP underperformed internationally relative to most comic book movies so international number isn't as meaningful. BP did 52% of its take domestically and 48% internationally whereas most comic book movies are more like Avengers Infinity War which did 32% domestically and 68% internationally. Thor: Rangnorak did 37% domestically and 63% internationally. Spider Man Homecoming did 38% domestically and 62% internationally. While BP's numbers were still good it definitely didn't perform like other Marvel movies do overseas. Or maybe it just way overperformed domestically relative to these other movies.

From the perspective of someone not in the US some of these things are more obvious. Many movies are aimed squarely at the domestic market, some are unintentionally biased towards a US Centric worldview, some are deliberately written that way.

BP is about America for Americans. Elsewhere it performed well where the audience had some empathy for the message. Less so in markets where the themes are less relevant. Thor is always telling. Thor movies have generally been more fantastical and not political. There is no barrier for international audiences. Spider-Man is the biggest Superhero brand in the world for a reason, because his story is familial and universal. Captain Marvel has a few US centric themes but they are not necessary for enjoyment of the movie by the general audience. Her story is more universal.

Your last sentence is the most salient here. It isn’t so much that movies over or underperform in the US, it is where they find their market. The potential market in the world is large and growing.

[Username taken]

If it gets that close there will be a push to force it over the billion mark much like happened with Black Panther domestically. BP was stuck at 699 million domestically from June 2 to August 1st with zero shot at 700 million given it was at this point out on video and its decreasing theater count and diminishing box office each weekend left that last little bit out of reach. It was to the point it was only taking in hundreds of dollars a day nationwide. On August 1st (a Wednesday) it only did $400 nationwide and still needed $44,000 to hit 700 million. Then suddenly out of nowhere beginning August 2 it started bringing in over $10,000 a day for the next week to give it that final push to 700 million. Obviously someone at the studio or fan with money to burn started buying up tickets to give it the push because of the significance of the number.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...arvel2017b.htm

https://www.thewrap.com/black-panthe...ic-box-office/

The movie had an extended run in discount theaters.

[Username taken]

Domestically (United States) it was stuck at 699 million until it got nudged over by someone buying up lots of tickets. 700 million domestic meant more than any international number for this movie because it became only the 3rd movie to ever break 700 million in the United States. BP underperformed internationally relative to most comic book movies so international number isn't as meaningful. BP did 52% of its take domestically and 48% internationally whereas most comic book movies are more like Avengers Infinity War which did 32% domestically and 68% internationally. Thor: Rangnorak did 37% domestically and 63% internationally. Spider Man Homecoming did 38% domestically and 62% internationally. While BP's numbers were still good it definitely didn't perform like other Marvel movies do overseas. Or maybe it just way overperformed domestically relative to these other movies.

It overperformed relative to domestic. BP took in around $600m overseas which is as much or more than most MCU movies.

[Username taken]

We currently have box office results for Captain Marvel as of Day 12 (Tuesday, March 19).

So, let's take a look at where the other Marvel Cinematic Universe movies were in their respective Day 12s to see how Captain Marvel is tracking.

Each MCU film has had its box office number adjusted to 2019's average ticket price. This is not an exact science as some movies do better in IMAX than others which skews things.

For this reason, I did not adjust Infinity War, Black Panther, or Ragnarok as this would have resulted in their box office numbers going DOWN. There are other snafus when adjusting as the adjusted total on the final reported day of release will be a different dollar amount than the adjusted total overall (e.g. Avengers' final day of release had an adjusted total of $721,498,400 as of day 133, but adjusting Avengers total by itself only results in $694,237,400).

Caveats aside, this is the best estimate we can make:

MARVEL CINEMATIC UNIVERSE - BOX OFFICE AS OF DAY 12 OF RELEASE:

1. Avengers: Infinity War - $472,064,425 (unadjusted)
2. Avengers - $433,121,200 ($389,473,290 unadjusted)
3. Black Panther - $421,915,776 (unadjusted)
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $340,635,100 ($324,791,589 unadjusted)
5. Iron Man 3 - $317,584,000 ($294,723,579 unadjusted)
6. Captain America: Civil War - $317,183,600 ($306,645,905 unadjusted)
7. Captain Marvel - $277,683,764
8. Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2 - $261,385,000 ($259,069,294 unadjusted)
9. Iron Man 2 - $250,366,400 ($218,481,425 unadjusted)
10. Iron Man - $232,708,700 ($185,033,014 unadjusted)
11. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $222,734,000 ($220,267,368 unadjusted)
12. Thor: Ragnarok - $220,256,852 unadjusted
13. Guardians of the Galaxy - $210,628,300 ($188,469,200 unadjusted)
14. Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $181,112,400
15. Doctor Strange - $163,658,000 ($159,308,268 unadjusted)
16. Thor: The Dark World - $162,255,100 ($150,036,561 unadjusted)
17. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $145,376,000 ($142,156,135 unadjusted)
18. Captain America: The First Avenger - $141,570,300 ($124,481,534 unadjusted)
19. Thor - $140,493,800 ($125,402,026 unadjusted)
20. The Incredible Hulk - $128,329,100 ($102,037,960 unadjusted)
21. Ant-Man - $124,568,400 ($113,808,316 unadjusted)

If Captain Marvel stands at $277,683,764 as of Day 12 (Tues, Mar 19), it's on track to make above GOTG 2, but less than Civil War.

GOTG 2 ended up with an adjusted domestic gross of $393,315,500, while Civil War ended up with $422,199,800 adjusted.

To me, this means that CM is assured to cross $400 million domestically and end up pretty much around where Wonder Woman ended up which was $416,423,200 ($412,563,408 unadjusted).

That's kind of interesting.

Of course, globally, I still think CM will crack $1 billion, so this is another example of a superhero movie performing much better overseas, while Wonder Woman was almost a 50-50 split.

Going back to Captain Marvel, given that box office results are often reported UNADJUSTED, CM's final total should look even more impressive because if it gets to around $420 million domestically, CM would end up being the #5 MCU film domestically and land above Iron Man 3 ($409,013,994 unadjusted), but below Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459,005,868 unadjusted).

Just like Aquaman, I never, ever saw Captain Marvel getting anything close to a billion.

We live in strange times.

[JKtheMac]

It overperformed relative to domestic. BP took in around $600m overseas which is as much or more than most MCU movies.

It just isn’t wise to compare the markets. The international market is not one market, it is many different markets.

[DanMad1977]

Yeah, i would have thought that Aquaman will be the biggest box office bomb, and i estimated Captain Marvel around 600-700 Million box office.

i am confused.

[The Kid]

Domestically (United States) it was stuck at 699 million until it got nudged over by someone buying up lots of tickets. 700 million domestic meant more than any international number for this movie because it became only the 3rd movie to ever break 700 million in the United States. BP underperformed internationally relative to most comic book movies so international number isn't as meaningful. BP did 52% of its take domestically and 48% internationally whereas most comic book movies are more like Avengers Infinity War which did 32% domestically and 68% internationally. Thor: Rangnorak did 37% domestically and 63% internationally. Spider Man Homecoming did 38% domestically and 62% internationally. While BP's numbers were still good it definitely didn't perform like other Marvel movies do overseas. Or maybe it just way overperformed domestically relative to these other movies.

Percentages aren't the best way to look just by the sheer amount BP made domestically. It made more than both Thor 3 and Spidey in international markets but because it had one of the most insane domestic grosses ever, it's domestic/international split is closer to 50/50 than someone of those other movies.

[regnak]

Just like Aquaman, I never, ever saw Captain Marvel getting anything close to a billion.

We live in strange times.

I think being tied so closely to Endgame added at least $100 million to the final result. It had to help the only question is how much.

[Steamroller]

I think it won't make it. 934 million is maximum.

[XPac]

I think being tied so closely to Endgame added at least $100 million to the final result. It had to help the only question is how much.

At one point I was worried End Game might actually HURT Captain Marvel, because they were already starting to put out trailers before Captain Marvel was even out. I feared End Game might take away from some of the Captain Marvel buzz.

But that didn't seem to be the case. Perhaps in part due to the whole controversy around it, Captain Marvel has more than held its own in End Games shadow.

[Jokerz79]

At one point I was worried End Game might actually HURT Captain Marvel, because they were already starting to put out trailers before Captain Marvel was even out. I feared End Game might take away from some of the Captain Marvel buzz.

But that didn't seem to be the case. Perhaps in part due to the whole controversy around it, Captain Marvel has more than held its own in End Games shadow.

I think Carol being in the Endgame trailer helped there were probably casual MCU Fans/General Audience members who didn't go see Captain Marvel but got interested after seeing her in the Endgame trailer.

[Hiromi]

Captain Marvel's sitting over 800 million before it's third weekend, its basically guaranteed to break a billion at this point, probably in the next two weeks or so, the question now is does how far over a billion it gets

I think it won't make it. 934 million is maximum.

That frankly is ridiculous, it'll cross the 900 million mark sometime next week, it has somewhere around 15 weekends left in it's theatrical run, it would have to have record shatteringly large drops not just next week but every week for the remainder of it's theater life to peter out like that

[BeastieRunner]

My wife and I are thrilled to be seeing it again at our local drive in April 5.

I think $1B is a safe bet.

Disney is looking at the possibility of 5 $1B movies this year ... Captain Marvel, Endgame, Frozen 2, and Episode IX seem to be the locks. Aladdin, Dumbo, Lion King, Toy Story 4, and Maleficent 2 are the dark horses.

That is crazy.