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  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zetsubou View Post
    JFK was also unlikely to win the election, given the anti-catholic sentiment in the US. Many Americans believed John F. Kennedy would rather obey the Pope than enforce the US Constitution.
    JFK was not the first Catholic to become a presidential candidate. New York governor Al Smith was the first Catholic US presidential candidate and he lost the POTUS election in 1928. Many Protestants feared his candidacy, including German Lutherans and Southern Baptists, believing that the Pope in Rome would dictate his policies

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Smith
    Excellent point. In fact, now that you really mention it, almost 50% of all Presidents were long shots at the start of the race. To varying degrees of course, with President Kennedy being an outlier as his religion (identity politics) was a lot more significant than say President Polk, who was just too obscure to be considered a real challenger. I brought up Obama and Trump because they were the most recent, but also because the media was and is a lot more widespread, making pundits talking about how unlikely they were that much more salient. With Trump's unlikeliness being proclaimed all the way down, essentially, to the point where he was actually declared the winner.

    Really just a great contribution to this discussion, thank you.

  2. #107
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    Warren


  3. #108
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    NYC's Bill De Blasio Trades Criticism at Home for Curiosity in Iowa

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iosity-in-iowa

    New York Mayor Bill de Blasio stepped away from the criticism in his hometown to engage curiosity in Iowa, making his first stop as a presidential candidate in the middle of farm country to demonstrate his interest in agricultural issues and take shots at President Donald Trump.

    Mayor De Blasio’s presidential ambitions haven’t ignited much enthusiasm in New York. An April 3 Quinnipiac University poll found that 76% of city voters say he should not run. His negative job approval rating -- 42% to 44% -- doesn’t help, although he’s popular among 66% of New York’s black voters.

    Even his own city doesn't want him near the White House. Maybe we shouldn't expect too much from him. Well, another New yorker, Kirsten Gilibrand has better chance than the mayor Bill.

    Bill is a terrible mayor. How can he make a good president?

  4. #109
    Extraordinary Member Malvolio's Avatar
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    Let's remember something many people from outside of New York may not realize. de Blasio is from New York City. Gillibrand is from upstate NY. They might as well be from separate states.

  5. #110
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    De Blasio's popularity with black voters could be helpful in Southern primaries.

  6. #111
    Mighty Member SquirrelMan's Avatar
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    Liz has a plan for everything:


  7. #112

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zetsubou View Post
    Yeah, good luck, Mayor De Blasio. No mayor has ever been able to win the presidential nomination. Same with the mayor Pete.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_D...tial_primaries

    Steve Bullock also joined the race a couple days earlier. I think a little-known or obscure governor of a sparsely populated state has a good chance of winning as a United States senator. After all Bill Clinton won the election. So did Jimmy Carter.

    and let's not forget Senator Michael Bennett who declared his candidacy on May 2. I wonder if American people would decide to elect a candidate of Jewish descent born in another country. Barry Goldwater and John Kerry, both of whom have Jewish ancestry, lost. John McCain, who was born in Panama, lost.
    Do you think those losses had anything to do with their backgrounds? How many people reading this thread (which is going to be limited to people who know a lot about politics) were even aware that Kerry has a Jewish background?

    Regarding the backgrounds of losing candidates, a complicating factor is that they were not the favorites in the general election due to circumstances beyond their control.

    Al Smith was hurt by anti-Catholic bias but he also ran against a popular member of the popular Republican administration at a time when only two Democrats got elected to the White House in a more than 60 year period (and Woodrow Wilson was helped by a strong third party campaign from a former Republican President.)

    The nation was not ready for a new President so soon after Kennedy's assassination so Goldwater was doomed no matter what. And there had only been one time in over a century that a party had been kicked out of the White House after just one term. Kerry had that problem, and ran against a war-time President.

    McCain ran for a third term for his party (and parties had only been able to stick in the White House for three terms once since Eisenhower's election) at a time when his party was historically unpopular.

    Electability matters on the margins, but it's wrong to assume that all elections occur under similar environments, so that FDR would have beaten Hoover in 1928, that Kennedy could have defeated Eisenhower in 1956, or that Kerry would have lost to McCain in 2008.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zetsubou View Post
    NYC's Bill De Blasio Trades Criticism at Home for Curiosity in Iowa

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iosity-in-iowa




    Even his own city doesn't want him near the White House. Maybe we shouldn't expect too much from him. Well, another New yorker, Kirsten Gilibrand has better chance than the mayor Bill.

    Bill is a terrible mayor. How can he make a good president?
    Gilibrand's tanking in the polls right now, so it doesn't appear either has much of a shot.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Mets View Post
    Do you think those losses had anything to do with their backgrounds? How many people reading this thread (which is going to be limited to people who know a lot about politics) were even aware that Kerry has a Jewish background?

    Regarding the backgrounds of losing candidates, a complicating factor is that they were not the favorites in the general election due to circumstances beyond their control.

    Al Smith was hurt by anti-Catholic bias but he also ran against a popular member of the popular Republican administration at a time when only two Democrats got elected to the White House in a more than 60 year period (and Woodrow Wilson was helped by a strong third party campaign from a former Republican President.)

    The nation was not ready for a new President so soon after Kennedy's assassination so Goldwater was doomed no matter what. And there had only been one time in over a century that a party had been kicked out of the White House after just one term. Kerry had that problem, and ran against a war-time President.

    McCain ran for a third term for his party (and parties had only been able to stick in the White House for three terms once since Eisenhower's election) at a time when his party was historically unpopular.

    Electability matters on the margins, but it's wrong to assume that all elections occur under similar environments, so that FDR would have beaten Hoover in 1928, that Kennedy could have defeated Eisenhower in 1956, or that Kerry would have lost to McCain in 2008.
    So if it was someone else instead of Al Smith, the Democrats still would not have won the White House.

    Since JFK, many Catholics including Robert Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy, Jerry Brown, Edward Kennedy and Joe Biden ran for president but only one made it to being the nominee and he was John Kerry.

    Out of all today's 23 presidential candidates for the 2020 elections, some are Catholics:
    Joseph Biden (D), former vice president, from Delaware
    Steve Bullock (D), governor of Montana
    Julián Castro (D), former secretary of housing and urban development, from Texas
    John Delaney (D), former U.S. representative from Maryland
    Kirsten Gillibrand (D), U.S. senator from New York
    Beto O’Rourke (D), former U.S. representative from Texas
    Tim Ryan (D), U.S. representative from Ohio

    https://www.americamagazine.org/poli...candidates-jfk

  9. #114
    Ultimate Member Gray Lensman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zetsubou View Post
    So if it was someone else instead of Al Smith, the Democrats still would not have won the White House.

    Since JFK, many Catholics including Robert Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy, Jerry Brown, Edward Kennedy and Joe Biden ran for president but only one made it to being the nominee and he was John Kerry.

    Out of all today's 23 presidential candidates for the 2020 elections, some are Catholics:
    Joseph Biden (D), former vice president, from Delaware
    Steve Bullock (D), governor of Montana
    Julián Castro (D), former secretary of housing and urban development, from Texas
    John Delaney (D), former U.S. representative from Maryland
    Kirsten Gillibrand (D), U.S. senator from New York
    Beto O’Rourke (D), former U.S. representative from Texas
    Tim Ryan (D), U.S. representative from Ohio

    https://www.americamagazine.org/poli...candidates-jfk
    Bobby Kennedy is a special case due to being assassinated during the primary. We can only make educated guesses as to how that primary would have turned out in the end.
    "Theory: The Phoenix doesn't corrupt the characters, it corrupts the authors." Gambit, King of Thieves

  10. #115

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray Lensman View Post
    Bobby Kennedy is a special case due to being assassinated during the primary. We can only make educated guesses as to how that primary would have turned out in the end.
    And Edward Kennedy challenged an incumbent President in a primary while also being responsible for the death of a young woman. That election was a tough lift.

  11. #116
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    The oldest Kennedy brother was killed in action.

    Two Kennedy brothers were assassinated.

    The last Kennedy brother still remained in the senate until his death despite being responsible for the death of a young woman. But he never again could succeed in getting elected to the presidency of the USA.

    One Kennedy sister was lobotomized.

    Another Kennedy sister was killed during the WWII.


    So the Kennedy curse does exist.

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