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  1. #2566
    Guardian Empress of Earth Tami's Avatar
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  2. #2567
    What fresh hell is this? ChadH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    The Democrats have a habit of treating what should be their core constituencies as a captive audience, and ignoring their concerns in favor of trying to placate swing voters. As the logic goes, there's no need to pander to black or Latino voters because there's no way they could possibly vote Republican, so it's better to expend that political capital elsewhere. Republicans, on the other hand, just double down on the most extreme version of their policies and keep their base loyal and turning out to the polls. Ironically, this actually ends up doing a much better job of attracting undecided voters, because these are exactly the types of people who value displays of strength and unity more than actual policy considerations.

    Hillary would have easily won all of those states in 2016 if all of the people who leaned her way had actually voted, but a lot of them figured she was going to win big anyway and either stayed home in protest or just couldn't be bothered to show up. The key for 2020 is to focus on those voters, not those quasi-Republicans who are all in favor of free healthcare and infrastructure spending, but aren't too keen on immigrants, the environment, LGBT rights, or "PC culture."
    The thing that worries me is the GOP religious component. The fact that a high percentage of Latino immigrants are devout Catholics and an equally high percentage of African-Americans are Christian makes me nervous that having to choose between their faith or abortion and rights for LGBTQ people may sway many to vote conservative when push comes to shove.
    It would be wise to take into consideration that Latino Catholics and Christian African-Americans in California came out strongly against Proposition 8 back in 2008.
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  3. #2568
    Ol' Doogie, Circa 2005 JDogindy's Avatar
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    Trump: "There's no room in here for all of us, pilgrim."

    This man...

  4. #2569
    Mighty Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChadH View Post
    The thing that worries me is the GOP religious component. The fact that a high percentage of Latino immigrants are devout Catholics and an equally high percentage of African-Americans are Christian makes me nervous that having to choose between their faith or abortion and rights for LGBTQ people may sway many to vote conservative when push comes to shove.
    It would be wise to take into consideration that Latino Catholics and Christian African-Americans in California came out strongly against Proposition 8 back in 2008.
    Eh, I don't see too much of a risk there. In the Trump era, white evangelicals have clearly indicated that when it comes to Christian values or white supremacy, they're always going to choose the latter, so trying to sway minorities with religious arguments won't work. Not that the Republicans are even trying that anymore, abandoning their outreach efforts has solidified their status as the party of white people for the base, which is only a good thing as far as they're concerned.

  5. #2570
    Extraordinary Member Robotman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChadH View Post
    The thing that worries me is the GOP religious component. The fact that a high percentage of Latino immigrants are devout Catholics and an equally high percentage of African-Americans are Christian makes me nervous that having to choose between their faith or abortion and rights for LGBTQ people may sway many to vote conservative when push comes to shove.
    It would be wise to take into consideration that Latino Catholics and Christian African-Americans in California came out strongly against Proposition 8 back in 2008.
    There’s a great example of the absolute ignorance and racism of the Republican Party. They could have actually made some headway into the black and Hispanic voting demographic if they had really tried 15 or 20 years ago. Traditionally both groups are very religious, which could tie into the anti-abortion and anti-LGBT stances. They could have also pushed the “traditional family values” talking point to sway blue collar black and Latino voters as well. But instead republicans went all in with white nationalism. Which was a frightened and short sighted response to national demographic shifts. This circling the wagons to protect white Americans could be a death sentence. The only way they are able to maintain power is through gerrymandering, corruption, and voter suppression. I recall Republican strategists sounding the alarm in the 2000s that the party must do more to attract hispanic and black voters or face the reality of never winning the White House for decades. The white nationalist fear mongering worked in 2016. I can’t see it continuing to be a winning strategy unless they take voter suppression to new lows.
    Last edited by Robotman; 06-09-2019 at 10:47 PM.

  6. #2571
    Mighty Member SquirrelMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PwrdOn View Post
    The Democrats have a habit of treating what should be their core constituencies as a captive audience, and ignoring their concerns in favor of trying to placate swing voters. As the logic goes, there's no need to pander to black or Latino voters because there's no way they could possibly vote Republican, so it's better to expend that political capital elsewhere. Republicans, on the other hand, just double down on the most extreme version of their policies and keep their base loyal and turning out to the polls. Ironically, this actually ends up doing a much better job of attracting undecided voters, because these are exactly the types of people who value displays of strength and unity more than actual policy considerations.

    Hillary would have easily won all of those states in 2016 if all of the people who leaned her way had actually voted, but a lot of them figured she was going to win big anyway and either stayed home in protest or just couldn't be bothered to show up. The key for 2020 is to focus on those voters, not those quasi-Republicans who are all in favor of free healthcare and infrastructure spending, but aren't too keen on immigrants, the environment, LGBT rights, or "PC culture."
    Hillary Clinton was the first major party candidate to address systemic racism during her campaign, something Obama only did by being himself, not by his words or his platform.

  7. #2572
    Horrific Experiment JCAll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by numberthirty View Post
    People need to accept the reality that a United States Presidential election is not(and, by the next Presidential elections, likely will not) decided by popular vote totals.

    Since HRC herself was talking about that said system was one whose merits Trump should accept if he should lose, it makes zero sense to go back to that particular point.

    If a football game is won on point totals, you need to realize that focusing on you yardage totals is foolish. That reality needs to be internalized yesterday.
    I have a theory that no Rupublican president will ever win the popular vote again.

  8. #2573
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    I've been calling them that from the beginning:

    Call immigrant detention centers what they really are: concentration camps
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    Hillary was right!

  9. #2574

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    Quote Originally Posted by JCAll View Post
    I have a theory that no Rupublican president will ever win the popular vote again.
    It would take a sequel to 9/11 carried out by not just radical non-Christians, but one carried out by a superteam of every non-white minority that were also had women, gays and lesbians. It's the only way they could justify all their bigotry.
    Last edited by worstblogever; 06-10-2019 at 12:32 AM.
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  10. #2575
    Astonishing Member JackDaw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCAll View Post
    I have a theory that no Rupublican president will ever win the popular vote again.
    Donald T doesn’t strike me as a very attractive candidate. And followed a strategy that wasn’t really aimed at winning the popular vote...he aimed to win under the existing rules. (0ne of the few sensible things he did...)

    And didn’t lose popular vote by that big a margin. I’d be amazed if you theory isn’t disproved in your lifetime.

  11. #2576
    Extraordinary Member PaulBullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackDaw View Post
    Donald T doesn’t strike me as a very attractive candidate. And followed a strategy that wasn’t really aimed at winning the popular vote...he aimed to win under the existing rules. (0ne of the few sensible things he did...)

    And didn’t lose popular vote by that big a margin. I’d be amazed if you theory isn’t disproved in your lifetime.
    Assuming that HE did want to win and not just build his brand. Somebody wanted him to win, though.
    "How does the Green Goblin have anything to do with Herpes?" - The Dying Detective

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  12. #2577
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackDaw View Post
    Donald T doesn’t strike me as a very attractive candidate. And followed a strategy that wasn’t really aimed at winning the popular vote...he aimed to win under the existing rules. (0ne of the few sensible things he did...)

    And didn’t lose popular vote by that big a margin. I’d be amazed if you theory isn’t disproved in your lifetime.
    The Trump campaign definitely wasn't strategizing on that or any other level, they were barely even trying to win. The election was just a combination of disillusioned left wingers who stayed home out of protest or apathy, and racist rednecks who were far more motivated than anyone could have predicted to vote Trump to own the libs.

  13. #2578
    Ultimate Member numberthirty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackDaw View Post
    Donald T doesn’t strike me as a very attractive candidate. And followed a strategy that wasn’t really aimed at winning the popular vote...he aimed to win under the existing rules. (0ne of the few sensible things he did...)

    And didn’t lose popular vote by that big a margin. I’d be amazed if you theory isn’t disproved in your lifetime.
    One person's take...

    That the least popular candidate in modern times managed to sneak out a win against the someone almost as unpopular as he is doesn't amount to much. It's too specific an instance to be an indicator.

    Edit: Even in that really specific instance, the Clinton campaign simply giving a second thought to what it did and did not have in the bag probably would have changed the outcome.

    That mistake will probably not be repeated by a Democratic Presidential nominee in our lifetimes.
    Last edited by numberthirty; 06-10-2019 at 01:21 AM.

  14. #2579
    Astonishing Member JackDaw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    Assuming that HE did want to win and not just build his brand. Somebody wanted him to win, though.
    Yes..maybe he wasn’t even fully committed to winning. That makes closeness of popular vote even more remarkable, surely.

    If he runs again I think he will lose...as long as Democrats avoid running a disastrous candidate against him.

    But in long term, losing next Presidential election is better for Republicans I suspect than another term for Trump.

    Let’s assume that happens...and Democrats have run a fairly elderly candidate to win the Presidency (eg. Bernie Sanders or Hilary Clinton)..then in election after Republicans run a decent young candidate against the incumbent Democrat...straightaway I think Republicans would be favourites to win popular vote.

    I really don’t buy theory that Republicans will never will popular vote again.

  15. #2580
    Old school comic book fan WestPhillyPunisher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaulBullion View Post
    Assuming that HE did want to win and not just build his brand. Somebody wanted him to win, though.
    Yeah, THIS guy....



    ====================

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    The California Horse Racing Board requested the racetrack suspend racing for the duration of the season. Two additional horses died this weekend. It's hard to be impartial since I've never been a fan of hose racing, but this is beyond obscene.
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