Quote Originally Posted by Theleviathan View Post
Recent polling has been all over the place. If Biden's position is lagging we'll probably have a clearer picture after the next debate. From just a glance on realclearpolitics, there is a shit ton of variability right now.
There is but I don't think the uncertainty bodes well for Biden.

It's pretty much just a fact at this point that Biden's team doesn't want him exposed too much. He is gaffe prone and the more he is out there the more he looks lethargic and just says puzzling shit and doesn't seem on point. Likewise, the trends of the last few debates have been, Biden has a mediocre performance, he falls a bit, then he's out of the spotlight and the polls get back to normal a slow rate. There's a reason they don't want him campaigning all over the place and all over the media. It's not working out for him. His advantage is he came out with a lot of assumptions about electability and started with a lead. Now they want to lean on that lead and keep him out of the way of screwing it up.

Only now Warren and Sanders are starting to make pushes ahead, the backers are starting to warm more towards Warren, etc. Nearly every Democratic candidate is polling well against Trump so the whole "who is the more electable candidate" advantage is mattering less and less because there isn't the fear that Bernie and Warren being left will scare people off, or that Kamala is too new on the scene, or that Buttegieg is too small time, etc. The polls are showing that it's negligible who will have the advantage over Trump. So a lot of the presumptions giving him a great jumping off point, aren't holding.

If he ever finds himself definitively behind, I don't see him fighting his way back up. I feel like his campaign staff knows that too. They know the minute Biden has to go out there and really push the issue, he's going to be worse version of the same old Joe Biden that ran for President before and couldn't do it. Exposure so far for him just hasn't been kinda and it's been hurting him. Once they need him to start running out there, I think he's done. Also once that happens, the confidence a lot of donors had will be shaken.