All Purpose News and Politics Thread Part IV: The Center Cannot Hold

[Tami]

I just signed up with the Elizabeth Warren campaign through their website.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

You would think that Republicans would also help get Trump out since A) Pence is clearly more sane B) Will add the same judges etc that Trump is C) Not as scandal ridden as Trump and his baggage.

But here is where some things aren't really so sure. While the belief is Trump supporters would line up behind Pence ; well the man doesn't have Trump's charisma of being an angry idiot who attracts a cult like following. Pence is basically ...boring as John Kerry. Many of Trump's supporters like yourself would comically quit voting in anger that their chosen one was impeached than back a typical "yes man politician".

So yeah I think there is some who would vote Mike Pence. But a good many of the right who worship the ground Trump walks on...well they are done the moment his ass is out of there. They will never vote again until the next one who has anger problems and is terrible comes along to motivate that anger and rage at things.

I agree with that assessment. Just like with Bernie Bros, Trump supporters are all about him and not the party he represents. The moment Caramel Caligula leaves, either by impeachment or losing the election, his lemmings will leave with him, Pence is the very sort of paint by numbers, business as usual politician Trump railed against and vowed to clean out of the swamp. His acolytes won’t touch Red Grant with a ten foot pole in an election.

[PaulBullion]

Impeachment of Trump would be a very stupid thing for the left to do.

It will make a martyr of Trump for those on the right and even if you do succeed in removing him from office then you have possibly have President Pence for the next nine years. Trump voters will support Pence and he won't be nearly as vulnerable as Trump will be in 2020.

That's how we got President Gore, after all.

[numberthirty]

That's how we got President Gore, after all.

Not really "Apple"/"Apple".

If Congress had impeached Clinton during his first term, I think Clinton being elected to a second term is a perfectly realistic scenario.

Gore? Little bit different situation.

[SUPERECWFAN1]

People at my work actually wince when I joked about possible President Pence. They are die hard Trump supporters and they love that guy big time. One even has said he doesn't ever want Pence in due to his religious insane views .

[Mister Mets]

Here is another idea I am sure Mets and his ilk support.

It wasn't the massive tax cuts for the rich, that actually hurt many middle class taxpayers, that has ballooned the deficit the last two years.
The "best economy ever" hasn't reduced it either. But according to the GOP, it's the Social Programs, that haven't changed in a decade, that is responsible.

That is some honest debate for you.

If you think tax cuts for the rich are a bigger problem in terms of the deficit than social programs, you're deeply misinformed.

Social security spending is about 23 percent of the federal spending ($895 billion in 2015.) Medicare and Health is a bit more ($986 billion in 2015.) Other programs add more (Food assistance was $104 billion, Unemployment was $36 billion.)

https://www.nationalpriorities.org/b...-101/spending/

The expected cost of the Trump tax cuts is $1.5 trillion over ten year (although estimates have varied from $1trillion to $2.3trillion.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.2ba69a15755c

It would also be really inaccurate to say that these were tax cuts for the rich that hurt the middle class. The middle class benefited too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/15/b...ut-impact.html

Some deductions were eliminated. These tended to benefit the wealthy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleae.../#bb7a2322a9c0

Middle class people were less likely to be affected by a $10,000 limit on state and local taxes (SALT) deductions. In order to come out behind with the tax cut you'd have to exceed the SALT deduction limit, and spend more money after the limit than you would earn back from tax cuts.

That's how we got President Gore, after all.

There is an argument that it would have been better for Gore to run as an incumbent President after Clinton was forced out than as a Veep simultaneously having to defend his connection to the administration.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...insky-resigned

[Tami]

FBI Arrests New Mexico Border Militia Leader Larry Mitchell Hopkins

The FBI arrested a 69-year-old New Mexico man who allegedly illegally detained immigrants crossing the border under the guise of working for the United States Border Patrol.

Larry Mitchell Hopkins, who runs The United Constitutional Patriots (UCP), an armed border militia group that spreads far-right conspiracies and rounds up asylum seekers on the border, was arrested by FBI in New Mexico Saturday on charges of possessing firearms and ammunition as a convicted felon.

[Mister Mets]

Question for people who oppose impeachment.
If the nonsensical "investigations" into Hillary's Emails and Benghazi, which resulted in nothing, hurt her campaign. Including Comey's wrong-headed announcement.
Why would an impeachment hearing that shows Trump's crimes, and let's face it, they were committed, not hurt Trump, even if the Senate ignores the facts?

The morality of impeachment proceedings should have nothing to do with whether it'll help or hurt Trump's reelection chances.

I've repeatedly supported my arguments with links and fact-checks, so just stop lying -- I even started out this discussion by labeling the "facts" as they were presented in order to clarify "subjective vs. objective" since you chose to "infer" things based on things like t-shirts rather than actual legislative policy and documented facts about both the Democratic and Republican parties.

No one is "pissed" here Mets -- if anything, I'm just bored (yet unsurprised) by your dishonesty, which I why I said I'm done wasting time arguing this nonsense: that you have the hypocritical audacity to claim that I'm the one making non-factual "broad based conclusions" on the one hand while simultaneously arguing that one Democrat's t-shirt means that party as a whole supports "open borders" on the other just further proves the ridiculous futility of expecting an honest "debate" with you on the subject.

If you want to continue to argue that one Democrat wearing an open borders t-shirt somehow justifies caging children and separating families, that's your right, but no one with any sense -- or "morality" -- is going to agree with you.

I edited some of the above since I was reaching the character limit.

The Meuller report came out two days ago, so it would be a dumb thing for me to try to discuss prior to the release. I have a finite amount of time, so I'm more likely to address posts where people call me out by name, and got after my character, because they're so outraged by what I said.

It's also 400+ pages so I don't see any need to rush into analysis before more well-informed people have had a chance to read it, and come up with interesting takeaways.

On any area where I think Trump did wrong, there's little benefit in expressing that opinion. The best-case scenario is that a bunch of us are in agreement, I spend time talking about things people already believe, and I don't get much practice writing, nor do I do get to hone my views in any particular way. Another possibility is that there's some small difference, and I get into lots of posts arguing some smaller distinction.

Your obsession with this shirt is bordering on farcical Mets. In a similar vein I could say "Trump held up a Rainbow Flag, so he clearly supports LGBTQ" even when realistically we know he doesnt. So if I was you and people kept saying to me "The transgender ban is an attack on the LGBTQ community" my only response would be "But he held up a flag !"

I don't bring up the shirt. It's mentioned in response to others mentioning it.

[Kirby101]

Mets is using more of his normal "factual lies". SS is funded from a trust and SS taxes, not the general fund. And it is mostly funded for 75 years (indexing the ceiling would so
The vast, vast majority of the tax cuts went to the wealthy.

A few cents for the middle class is part of the con job you conservative pull.

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/19/57175...e-middle-class

And of course we see that they did baloon the deficit with litlle impact to the economy.

But that is what yourParty wants. The true deficit creators.

[Kirby101]

Mets is using more of his normal "factual lies". SS is funded from a trust and SS taxes, not the general fund. And it is mostly funded for 75 years (indexing the ceiling would so
The vast, vast majority of the tax cuts went to the wealthy.

A few cents for the middle class is part of the con job you conservative pull.

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/19/57175...e-middle-class

And of course we see that they did baloon the deficit with litlle impact to the economy.

But that is what yourParty wants. The true deficit creators.

And you live in NY Mets. You know the prpoerty tax deduction hurt a lot of middle class people here. You are being disengenuous, again.

[Kirby101]

The morality of impeachment proceedings should have nothing to do with whether it'll help or hurt Trump's reelection chances.

I agree, he committed crimes, he should be impeach. But the impact on the election seems to be a part of the discussion against.

I notice you didn't react to your Party's **** show against Hillary. Was that the "moral" thing to do?

[Tami]

Republican discussed violent attacks and surveillance with rightwingers

A Washington state Republican politician took part in private discussions with rightwing figures about carrying out surveillance, “psyops” and even violent attacks on perceived political enemies, according to chat records obtained by the Guardian.

State representative Matt Shea, who represents Spokane Valley in the Washington state house, participated in the chats with three other men. All of the men used screen aliases – Shea’s was “Verum Bellator”, Latin for true warrior. The Guardian confirmed the identity of those in the chat by cross-checking phone numbers attached to the Signal accounts.

The group included Jack Robertson, who broadcasts a far-right radio show, Radio Free Redoubt, under the alias “John Jacob Schmidt”. The chat also included Anthony Bosworth, whose history includes a public altercation with his own daughter and bringing guns to a court house. Bosworth participated in the 2016 occupation of the Malheur national wildlife refuge, reportedly at Shea’s request.

The name of another participant, who provided the chat records to the Guardian, has been withheld due to concerns about personal safety.

[Tami]

Trump Endorses an Aspiring Libyan Strongman, Reversing Policy

President Trump on Friday abruptly reversed American policy toward Libya, issuing a statement publicly endorsing an aspiring strongman in his battle to depose the United Nations-backed government.

The would-be strongman, Khalifa Hifter, launched a surprise attack on the Libyan capital, Tripoli, more than two weeks ago. Relief agencies said Thursday that more than 200 people had been killed in the battle, and in recent days Mr. Hifter’s forces have started shelling civilian neighborhoods.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement a few days after Mr. Hifter’s militia began its attack that “the administration at the highest levels” had made clear that “we oppose the military offensive” and “urge the immediate halt to these military operations.” Most Western governments and the United Nations have also condemned the attack and demanded a retreat.

Mr. Trump, however, told Mr. Hifter almost the opposite, the White House said Friday.

A militia leader who has given himself the title of Field Marshal, Mr. Hifter, 75, has long sought to portray his fight for power over Libya — including his advance on Tripoli — as a battle against “terrorism.” In the statement on Friday the White House said Mr. Trump had called Mr. Hifter on Monday to endorse that campaign.

[Malvolio]

Pence, as a popular two- term President is a Joke. The GOP can get behind him all they want. It is still only 24% of voters.

The threat of a Pence Presidency if we impeach Trump is as fun as those Buy this Mag or we will shoot this Ddog covers.

That's 24% of eligible voters. Let's always remember that people who don't vote don't have their votes counted as "none of the above." They just are not counted at all. To put it in simpler terms, if you have 100 people eligible to vote in a local election, but 20 of those 100 people choose not to vote at all. Then, in order to win the election, a candidate no longer needs 51 for a majority, now they only need 41 for a majority of the people who actually vote.

People not voting makes it easier for the candidate with a plurality to turn it into a majority. That may be how Trump won in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

[TheDarman]

If you think tax cuts for the rich are a bigger problem in terms of the deficit than social programs, you're deeply misinformed.

Social security spending is about 23 percent of the federal spending ($895 billion in 2015.) Medicare and Health is a bit more ($986 billion in 2015.) Other programs add more (Food assistance was $104 billion, Unemployment was $36 billion.)

https://www.nationalpriorities.org/b...-101/spending/

These were programs that were still being paid for prior to Bush’s election in 2000 and subsequent massive tax cuts (mostly for the rich) after he got into office. We had a surplus then. Following Bush and the massive increases in “defense” spending, we ended up with a deficit that only went down when Obama got into office.

The expected cost of the Trump tax cuts is $1.5 trillion over ten year (although estimates have varied from $1trillion to $2.3trillion.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.2ba69a15755c

That’s really anywhere between $150 billion every year in losses of tax revenue to $230 billion a year. That does add up in a budget. And the only reason it isn’t worse is because they cut certain credits that people got prior (you no longer get breaks if you live in a high tax state, for example). A lot of people were taking advantage of those in highly populous places in America: California and New York for examples.

It would also be really inaccurate to say that these were tax cuts for the rich that hurt the middle class. The middle class benefited too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/15/b...ut-impact.html

Again, it depends on your geography. In Florida, definitely. In places like Colorado, New York, and California. Frankly it is also disingenuous to claim the benefits weren’t concentrated to the wealthy.

Some deductions were eliminated. These tended to benefit the wealthy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleae.../#bb7a2322a9c0

Not really. A number of those deductions hurt middle class individuals in high tax areas.

Middle class people were less likely to be affected by a $10,000 limit on state and local taxes (SALT) deductions. In order to come out behind with the tax cut you'd have to exceed the SALT deduction limit, and spend more money after the limit than you would earn back from tax cuts.

In Colorado, I paid at my part time job a total of $9,000 in state taxes (without local taxes included) while I was in school (that was before a pretty small, comparatively, refund). These also add up quick and virtually anyone working full time, even at a service level job, would it exceed that here and certainly in places like New York and California.