All Purpose News and Politics Thread Part IV: The Center Cannot Hold

[The Overlord]

Moderates consistently outperform those on the edges. This doesn't mean they'll always win, and you can think particular policy goals are worth an added risk of losing, but they'll usually do better.

https://www.vox.com/2019/7/2/2067765...remism-penalty
http://www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/Hall_APSR.pdf
http://www.nyu.edu/projects/politics...bility_NYU.pdf

We can see examples of this, like Keith Ellison underperforming the rest of the Democratic party in his statewide race in Minnesota.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/sta...59630111322112

As for Hillary Clinton, she did have unique flaws as an individual who had been in the public eye for decades, and as someone who had recently been under investigation as of the 2016 election. She also did run with arguably the most progressive major party campaign in American political history, which suggest she wasn't all that moderate.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/...0SN/story.html

Again, who has the most popular policy positions? Why did Warren and Sanders kick everyone's butt at that debate this week?

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/...-the-gops.html

They offer real solutions to real problems, while likes of Biden or Delaney or Beto O'Raorke offer pablum.

Really how was Clinton not ''moderate'', because she did some progressive lip service that means nothing when you look at her record? She is the same type of center-right neoliberal Dem Biden is:

https://www.vox.com/2019/1/10/181731...y-clinton-2020

How is supporting the Iraq war progressive or supporting mass incarnation or her ''super predator'' comments or supporting her husband scrapping Glass Steagall?

If she is progressive, the word has no meaning. Trump beat up on her for being a neoliberal war hawk who was beholden to corporations, why wouldn't that be even more effective against Biden, who has a lot of the same weaknesses as Clinton did?


The GOP does not bother with moderation, they created an environment where they have become a far-right party, but they will label any Dem who moves from the center an inch, an extremist. Any Dem who plays by those rules cedes half the battle right away.

[Mister Mets]

There's a fair argument to be made that more liberal policies might potentially draw in more (or newer) Democratic voters in a general election, but both data and history are on the side of the more moderate Democrats.

With the stakes being what they are, while everyone has the right to support their chosen candidate, it doesn't make sense to also try to sabotage what has proven to be the most effective (Democratic) political strategy in the process.

One problem with base turnout is that what turns out the left in support of a candidate turns out the right in opposition. This can be especially damaging for Democrats when there's a flawed Republican in the White House running as an incumbent.

It's preferable for the left if Republicans and conservative-leaning independents disgusted at Trump stay home during the election, rather than to have them holding their nose and voting for him because the Democrat has a lot of unpopular positions.

[aja_christopher]

One problem with base turnout is that what turns out the left in support of a candidate turns out the right in opposition. This can be especially damaging for Democrats when there's a flawed Republican in the White House running as an incumbent.

It's preferable for the left if Republicans and conservative-leaning independents disgusted at Trump stay home during the election, rather than to have them holding their nose and voting for him because the Democrat has a lot of unpopular positions.

You're preaching to the choir on that one -- but let it never be said that democrats can't snatch defeat from the hands of victory with infighting over "progressive" politics.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I don't know who this "they" you're talking about is, but they're not asking her for a troop deployment. They want her to say, "GASSING YOUR OWN PEOPLE IS BAD."

That is a very low bar to clear, and yet she fails to.

Yeah I’m not fit Tulsi so I don’t really have a dog in this fight. Just saying that’s why she has fans. I view her as a gimmick candidate

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Democracy is not a trifle to be handled carelessly, Knight.

Democracy failed a long time ago

[The Overlord]

One problem with base turnout is that what turns out the left in support of a candidate turns out the right in opposition. This can be especially damaging for Democrats when there's a flawed Republican in the White House running as an incumbent.

It's preferable for the left if Republicans and conservative-leaning independents disgusted at Trump stay home during the election, rather than to have them holding their nose and voting for him because the Democrat has a lot of unpopular positions.

Except the vast majority of the GOP loves Trump and if Biden is the pick, they will just say he is a socialist anyway. Never Trump Republicans are too small to be significant and I bet most of them would just for Trump anyway.

Political cycles come and go -- prior to that, Democrats were on the winning side of the political spectrum after Bush.

You might just as well point at the last historic midterm and use it as an indication that moderates are the key to winning back Congress and the White House.

Except for your whole argument ''only moderates can win'' and when I point to examples of moderates not winning, you make an excuse for them. Is losses with excuses winning? I do not think what you think is a safe bet, is infact a safe bet. If Biden loses, will you question this premise or just make an excuse for him?

[aja_christopher]

Except for your whole argument ''only moderates can win''

I never said that -- stop lying to try to make your point.

I said the data shows that moderates win more than progressives, and if you want to prove that progressives can win -- and pass legislation on a national level -- then prove it with victories and presidencies, not rhetoric on a message board.

Sanders and Warren could very well win the nomination and the general election -- in my opinion, that still doesn't justify trying to drag down the other Democratic candidates or the party in general, especially given the fact that they will need the support of moderates both to win the elections and to pass any meaningful legislation through Congress.

[Tendrin]

I don't know who this "they" you're talking about is, but they're not asking her for a troop deployment. They want her to say, "GASSING YOUR OWN PEOPLE IS BAD."

That is a very low bar to clear, and yet she fails to.

Tulsi won't say that because her most rabid fans hate Islam as much as she does. She is perfectly fine with Muslims being gassed. This anti-Islam stance is also one of the real reasons for her fans in the alt-right and Bannon, to say nothing of her support for the fascist Hindutva BJP in India.

[Theleviathan]

Here's the problem with your take.

When you look at voter participation, you need to accept the reality that running on moderate platforms probably "Sabotages..." being able to win elections to a larger degree than progressive politics.

Is this implying that a lack of progressive candidates is why we have low voter turnout?

[The Overlord]

I never said that -- stop lying to try to make your point.

I said the data shows that moderates win more than progressives, and if you want to prove that progressives can win -- and pass legislation -- then prove it with victories and presidencies, not rhetoric on a message board.

What are you expecting me to do that single handly? You know nothing about me. I am just a gadfly because I cannot vote in American elections, I am Canadian, though I am half American, could get citizenship if I wanted, but then I would have to pay taxes in 2 different countries, so forget it. I am still commenting on your country's flawed political system (though Canada has its own deep problems, that I am sure you have no real interest in). But since my mother is American and I have family in America, so I think I have the right to express my opinions your system. So I am not a Democrat, because I do not live in the US, but guess what, the US affects the rest of the world too, so the rest of the world is hoping you get your act together.

All your obsession about winning and pragmatism has done cure society's ills? Your health care system is garbage and overly expensive, Canada spends less then your country does and gets better results, your country wastes massive amounts of money on wars that make people hate you and put money in the hands of defense contractors, you have mass shootings all the time, you have a political system infecting with gerrymandering, the right can just steal a Supreme Court and you can't do anything about. The GOP has managed to game the system completely in their favor, you just want to do the same old same old. Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. Anyone who thinks America is still a shining city on a hill is naive, frankly, I think Trump winning has made me really cynical about American society, he is the mirror that reveals the ugly truth.

Trump is a symptom, your society's problems are way deeper than that.

But I do not hate America, I feel sorry for America, I think its screwed and I don't think just electing Biden will get rid of your broken system, massive corruption and structural racism, but I am just a Canuck, what do I know? I think Mitch McConnell has gamed your system so perfectly, that you would real fighter to just stand a chance of really winning anything.

[aja_christopher]

What are you expecting me to do that single handly? You know nothing about me. I am just a gadfly because I cannot vote in American elections, I am Canadian, though I am half American, could get citizenship if I wanted, but then I would have to pay taxes in 2 different countries, so forget it. I am still commenting on your country's flawed political system (though Canada has its own deep problems, that I am sure you have no real interest in). But since my mother is American and I have family in America, so I think I have the right to express my opinions your system. So I am not a Democrat, because I do not live in the US, but guess what, the US affects the rest of the world too, so the rest of the world is hoping you get your act together.

All your obsession about winning and pragmatism has done cure society's ills? Your health care system is garbage and overly expensive, Canada spends less then your country does and gets better results, your country wastes massive amounts of money on wars that make people hate you and put money in the hands of defense contractors, you have mass shootings all the time, you have a political system infecting with gerrymandering, the right can just steal a Supreme Court and you can't do anything about. The GOP has managed to game the system completely in their favor, you just want to do the same old same old. Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. Anyone who thinks America is still a shining city on a hill is naive, frankly, I think Trump winning has made me really cynical about American society, he is the mirror that reveals the ugly truth.

Trump is a symptom, your society's problems are way deeper than that.

Yep -- but attacking the only party that stands between Trump and another term is a risky strategy, and given how well it worked last time it doesn't make sense to sow the same division as we saw when Sanders faced off against Hillary in 2016.

You have every right to express your opinion -- I just refuse to let that opinion override fact with regards to voting data on moderate and progressive candidates in America. You're right about the Republicans, but you also have to acknowledge the fact that these same Republicans can only do those things because they win elections all over America, while progressives generally don't.

That said, we both can agree that Trump is a mirror that reveals an ugly truth about American society, which is why you can't assume progressive politics will work here as well as they might in other countries.

[The Overlord]

Yep -- but attacking the only party that stands between Trump and another term is a risky strategy, and given how well it worked last time it doesn't make sense to sow the same division as we saw when Sanders faced off against Hillary in 2016.

You have every right to express your opinion -- I just refuse to let that opinion override fact with regards to voting data on moderate and progressive candidates in America.

Again that was the argument for picking Clinton over Sanders was pragmatism and she lost, what if Biden makes that same argument and loses to Trump? Then what? Will you make an excuse for him?

People say Sanders or Warren have unrealistic policy goals and cannot seem to wrap your heads around that Canada has socialized health care and pays less in GDP then the US does. Why are Americans going in caravans to get cheaper drugs in Canada, why is your system so completely wasteful and inefficient? The waste of American society is a millstone around its neck.

Again you were trying to criticize me over a message board for not ''doing enough'', knowing nothing about me. Maybe I do not want to apply for American citizenship, because it would mean paying taxes in 2 different countries.

Here is the problem I see, you think Trump is the disease and I think he is a symptom. Just electing Biden and ''going back to normal'' lets the disease go untreated and it will just come back. Just beating Trump is not enough, you need to defeat Trumpism or you will back to square one with another extreme right-wing GOP President soon enough.

Frankly, I do not like moderate Democrat politicians because I think are complicit in your society's illness, by moving to the right in the 90s, the Dems in the 90s hollowed out the middle class with neoliberal policies and Trump pounced on that. If you are unwilling to fight Trump on these economic issues and offer a better path, you are ceding that battle to him.

[Theleviathan]

But I do not hate America, I feel sorry for America, I think its screwed and I don't think just electing Biden will get rid of your broken system, massive corruption and structural racism, but I am just a Canuck, what do I know? I think Mitch McConnell has gamed your system so perfectly, that you would real fighter to just stand a chance of really winning anything.

You are welcome to voice your opinion, but can we tone down the "12 Strawmen a Post" ratio we have going please? No one said anything like that and it's hard to have a discussion if you turn every point against you into a bogus boogeyman.

The Democrats are far from perfect. Centrists can cause problems. But you know what? They ain't Trump. That, in and of itself, is significant.

If there was some large, untapped swath of Uber Progressives just waiting to roll in to vote for the first socialist.....I'd be their cheerleader too. Trump has to go. But so far as I can tell, such a group does not exist and has never existed. They didn't flood the 2016 primary. They aren't flooding the polls or the rallies of 2020 candidates of that ilk. They likely (almost certainly) don't exist.

So we gotta work with what we got.

[aja_christopher]

Again that was the argument for picking Clinton over Sanders was pragmatism and she lost, what if Biden makes that same argument and loses to Trump? Then what? Will you make an excuse for him?

There was no "argument" -- Sanders lost the vote by millions.

[Tami]

Alarm over voter purges as 17m Americans removed from rolls in two years

US election jurisdictions with histories of egregious voter discrimination have been purging voter rolls at a rate 40% beyond the national average, according to a watchdog report released Thursday.

At least 17 million voters were purged nationwide between 2016 and 2018, according to a study by the Brennan Center for Justice. The number was basically unchanged from the previous two-year period.

While the rate of voter purges elsewhere has declined slowly, jurisdictions released from federal oversight by a watershed 2013 supreme court ruling had purge rates “significantly higher” than jurisdictions not previously subjected to oversight, the Brennan Center found in a previous report.

That trend has continued, the watchdog said, with the disproportionate purging of voters resulting in an estimated 1.1 million fewer voters between 2016 and 2018.

Voter purges accelerated in the United States with the 2013 Shelby County v Holder ruling, which released counties with histories of voter discrimination from federal oversight imposed by the 1965 Voting Rights Act.