Will AVENGERS: ENDGAME make $3 BILLION at the Worldwide box office?

[your_name_here]

So...does that mean we’re thinking it will/won’t catch Avatar?

[Enterprise E]

So...does that mean we’re thinking it will/won’t catch Avatar?

For me, that all depends on when Avengers: Endgame reaches 2.7 billion or so. If it does so in the next 2-3 weeks, I don't see it not passing Avatar eventually. It may do so with only its fingernails for momentum and gasping for air, but I don't see Disney taking it out of theaters if it gets so close to that milestone relatively quickly. There's also the slight boost that it will probably get when Spider-Man: Far From Home comes out so if it's close by the time Spider-Man comes out, I see Disney staying the course and having Endgame stay in theaters long enough to cross the 2.78 billion mark. The next two weeks or so will likely be the greatest indicators of its chances of crossing the finish line.

[BeastieRunner]

I was going to go today with my mom but we went to Captain Marvel again.

[Jim Kelly]

AVATAR's total includes its re-release. I could see Disney re-releasing ENDGAME later on. I think it would be a good idea to re-release INFINITY WAR and ENDGAME together exclusively on IMAX, so people could see the movies back to back, given it's all one big story.

[TheDarman]

Avengers: Endgame's raw domestic totals are once again above what Avengers: Infinity War did. This is after a week where Endgame fell behind Infinity War on the daily grosses. This isn't too terribly unexpected--these are work days and the fact it is a three hour movie is simply going to limit how many screenings a theater can have after the standard 9-5 work day is over. However, Endgame flip-flopping with Infinity War again this week to outpace its raw domestic totals, we can likely expect that domestic figure to climb above $850 million. That's good. It probably needs to do so to outperform its losses on the international stage.

Deadpool 2 was also a larger player on the international scene than either Detective Pikachu or John Wick Chapter 3. Deadpool 2 launched to $176 million just internationally. That's over $50 million higher than John Wick's total worldwide bow. For an even better comparison, combining both Detective Pikachu's international launch and John Wick's (which comes to roughly $140 million), we see that Deadpool 2 launched to more than $35 million more than the two of them together. So, Avengers: Endgame may have had to deal with competition earlier (given Detective Pikachu is certainly performing well internationally too), but it had to deal with less of a hit than Avengers: Infinity War did. Something else of note, Deadpool 2 didn't even launch in China. A lot of the gross that comes from Detective Pikachu has come from China, with $40 million of its $103 million international debut coming from the territory. That's another leg up that Endgame has, because it already topped out in China by the time Detective Pikachu opened.

The main thing is Disney no doubt expects that Aladdin will perform better than Solo did internationally. I don't know if Disney really anticipates that Aladdin will top out at the domestic box office the way Solo did (with roughly $210 million), but they probably expect it to perform better than the measly $180 million international that the latter did. Endgame's advantage to Infinity War in the international territories it can still expect to do decent business is about to evaporate--at Disney's own hand.

Then, the following weekend we have Godzilla: King of the Monsters. While it doesn't seem to be tracking for a massive domestic splash, it will be more of an international competitor than Solo and certainly more so than Upgrade or Adrift that opened in the same frame last year. In fact, there was no other big performer until Incredibles 2 came out on June 15th. So, after Deadpool 2, Infinity War could keep chugging along for another month without too much other international competition, mostly because of the failure of Solo. Endgame is gonna keep getting hit this summer--because after Godzilla, Disney's first X-Men film (and Fox's last) will launch on June 7th. That's gonna cut into the international box office for Endgame, even if it seems that this isn't going to launch big. Secret Life of Pets 2 is also a strong performer with the family demographic, looking to even beat out Dark Pheonix that weekend at the domestic box office. The following week, we'll see Men in Black: International come out and the week after that we see Toy Story 4. It is probably a safe presumption that Toy Story 4 will perform roughly equal to Incredibles 2. That means all the other films are competitive in ways that Infinity War never had to deal with.

I think I might've been too optimistic in expecting Avengers: Endgame to perform with the same raw international grosses that we saw for Avengers: Infinity War after its fourth weekend of release. There just isn't a lot of similarity between their release schedules. This summer is a lot more crowded. Barring a huge failure of every movie up through Men in Black: International, there isn't a reality where Endgame can perform just as well. At the very least, I can expect these big films to outperform Deadpool 2's $460 million international gross.

So...we'll see if Endgame can cross Avatar. But it looks like it might just miss it by like twenty million. Not counting re-releases, though, Avengers: Endgame will have beat Avatar. And that might be good enough for Disney to have both #1 films worldwide under their wings now, just depending on your definition.

[MarkRodriguez09]

I thought it already did? Like last weekend?

[TheDarman]

I thought it already did? Like last weekend?

That was only domestic. It is still, as of the most recent reporting, $168 million behind Avatar's final total.

[TriggerWarning]

AVATAR's total includes its re-release. I could see Disney re-releasing ENDGAME later on. I think it would be a good idea to re-release INFINITY WAR and ENDGAME together exclusively on IMAX, so people could see the movies back to back, given it's all one big story.

It was NEVER re-released. The thing people call a rerelease occurred near the end of its initial run when they reexpanded it to movie theaters in conjunction with Oscar nomination. It made a grand total of 34 million worldwide. Maybe if Endgame comes up less than 34 million short there is some sort of argument but then you can also just turn around and point out inflation and realize that more tickets were still sold to Avatar.

[TriggerWarning]

Endgame has fallen off faster than Infinity did to the point that they are pulling near exact figures at the same points of their run. From Day 27 (today in their run) to Day 133 Infinity made an additional 75 million domestically. So lets give that number to Endgame for the rest of its domestic run which puts its worldwide total at 2.698 billion. That would leave 90 million for it to make in the rest of the world to pass Avatar. Thus far Infinity has made slightly under 30% of its total domestically so if that ratio holds from here out then it should easily pass Avatar global total and end up just shy of 3 billion.

[PwrdOn]

It was NEVER re-released. The thing people call a rerelease occurred near the end of its initial run when they reexpanded it to movie theaters in conjunction with Oscar nomination. It made a grand total of 34 million worldwide. Maybe if Endgame comes up less than 34 million short there is some sort of argument but then you can also just turn around and point out inflation and realize that more tickets were still sold to Avatar.

Once you start adjusting for inflation though, you come up against the reality that no modern film will ever be able to top Gone With the Wind. Of course the movie is racist garbage, though in today's America maybe that's what you need if you want to break box office records...

[choptop]

Of course the movie is racist garbage,.

I disagree with your opinion maybe the movie has problems and can be definitely considered racist by some but it in no way is garbage.

[PwrdOn]

I disagree with your opinion maybe the movie has problems and can be definitely considered racist by some but it in no way is garbage.

It certainly is a beautiful film, but by giving such a sanitized and romanticized view of a particularly ugly period in history, it effectively served as propaganda for Confederate sympathizers, especially since it was seen and loved by so many people. That makes it no different from Birth of a Nation or Triumph of the Will in my book, but I suppose we should not discuss this further here.

[Kirby101]

GWTW was an apologetic for slavery and a glorification of the Confederacy. It's great cinema, but morally deplorable.

[choptop]

I wouldn't say that the movie shows Confederates for what they were stupid people who were blind to the Truth and in the end they pay for for it everything Burns they starv people suffer not all the people in the south were bad.

[Kirby101]

I wouldn't say that the movie shows Confederates for what they were stupid people who were blind to the Truth and in the end they pay for for it everything Burns they starv people suffer not all the people in the south were bad.

The O'Hara's were slave owners. They portrayed them as noble good people. The title is about an era Margret Mitchell regreted ended.
Not all the people were bad, but the foundation of the South was one of unspeakable human cruelty.