Endgame nosedived yesterday taking in only 10 million while Force Awakens took in a whopping 31 million on its 2nd Monday. As such Endgame's domestic lead is now down to 60 million. If the rest of the week plays like Monday (and if it follows the same pattern as Infinity it will) then by the weekend Endgame will be running behind Force Awakens domestically. Extremely unlikely now that it beats Force Awakens domestically. While it should easily be able to pass Black Panther for #3 all time domestically its actually time to start wondering if it will beat Avatar for #2. I still think it will but its not so foregone anymore.

Worldwide it needs 550 million to beat Avatar. It should get 150-200 million of that domestically. Infinity was a 33% / 66% split between domestic and international money while Endgame is currently running 28% / 72%. Could be dicey if Endgame drops overseas the same way it is here.

Someone will be tempted to say I'm reading too much into one day however I'll just say that box office profits are very predictable for 99% of movies and all you have to do is read charts of past similar movies like say Infinity which is the most comparable and Force Awakens since thats the one Infinity is chasing domestically and so far Endgame is playing exactly like Infinity - extremely front loaded followed by sharp dropoffs. Avatar is in the 1% as it had an extremely abnormal box office run so its impossible to compare to. By day 11 Avatar had only made 232 million but it actually gained some weekends from prior weekends and its dropoffs when they happened were puny.