WORLDWIDE: $3 billion or more
WORLDWIDE: $2.50-$2.99 billion
WORLDWIDE: $2.0-$2.49 billion
DOMESTIC: $900 million to $1 billion+
DOMESTIC: $800 million to $899 million
DOMESTIC: $750 million to $799 million
DOMESTIC: $700 million to $749 million
Stating the obvious, but the difference between James Cameron and Marvel is that James Cameron is James Cameron and Marvel is a collective of people. You do have Kevin Feige but he's not the director. Marvel had to make 22 movies to get that box office record. Cameron had to make just one movie. You can say what you will about him or his movies, but the numbers are the numbers. That's not overrating or underrating, that's just facts.
Avengers: Endgame will probably follow a similar multiplier from Avengers: Infinity War domestically from its first two weekends. Avengers: Infinity War had made, roughly, two-thirds of its money through its second weekend domestically. Now, Detective Pikachu would have to outperform expectations to play like Deadpool 2, and Deadpool 2 was more demographically similar to Avengers: Infinity War's own demographic target than Detective Pikachu is to Avengers: Endgame's. We would also probably expect Solo and Aladdin to perform roughly equal domestically (Solo made over $200 million domestic and with a typical 35/65 domestic/international split, it would've done pretty well--above $600 million) and, again, Solo was far more similar, in regards to its audience, than Aladdin to Avengers: Endgame. That being said, a lot of people will have already seen Avengers: Endgame. It's clearly going to be a bit front loaded. The lack of direct competition is probably what is going to allow it to play more like Avengers: Infinity War. With a 50% increase of its total gross, it'll probably crawl above $900 million, but fall just short of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, a movie with far less competition coming in two months after its release.
As to those international numbers, I don't expect Detective Pikachu to play better than Deadpool 2 did against Avengers: Infinity War in territories not like China or Japan. Without accounting for China's box office total for Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame made an additional $714 million globally, and, within that, an additional $226 million domestic. With only needing $600 million more (and the fact that I expect Endgame to make roughly $280 million more domestic), Endgame can afford to underperform internationally from here on out with a "mere" $320 million. With an expected extra $30 million from China, that leaves $290 million from all other territories that delivered $488 million more after Avengers: Infinity War's second frame. It might take a while, but I don't see how Avengers: Endgame doesn't pass Avatar. Of course, Avengers: Endgame has to overperform these numbers to reach $3 billion, which I'm dubious about.
With Great Power, Comes Great Responsibility
Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
I'd also add that while Cameron's Avatar broke records for being somewhat unprecedented at the time, Endgame is also unprecedented in its own way.
Cameron doesn't have his own super-extended universe (yet), but Avatar is the culmination of his work and experience, starting from his Roger Corman shoe-string budget days to the Terminator movies to the Abyss (whose influence is still felt today) to Titanic. No one's knocking that, and there's no shame in it. He achieved exactly what he wanted to up to that point, and that's good.
But Endgame is also a culmination, too. Even if Feige isn't a director, all that coordination, advanced planning, and leadership is of almost mythical proportions. Feige will likely say, "Oh, but there's this entire crew of people who made it possible," which is true, but that crew still needed a captain.
He did titanic and t2 and true lies also and they made sure to let people know he directed it in the trailers.This makes it sound like Avatar was his directorial debut, Cameron built his reputation as box office gold through decades of work.
And each time Cameron did something completely different and innovative from what he had done before, so that it was impossible to predict success. In fact there were predictions that his movies would be monumental failures and it was a genuine surprise when they made all the money.
And I wasn't just talking about Cameron as a director--he's a much bigger figure than that. He's an industry unto himself--which is why he has so much hubris. That's my point--he's a singular individual doing remarkable things rather than a team of people all working together to do remarkable things.
I'm not putting down the team, anymore than I'm putting down the individual. But they are two different amazing achievements. When we watch the Olympics, we marvel at the feats of individuals to do things that no one else has done before, just as we marvel at teams working together to win the gold.
If one only posts on things that will significantly changes their life there's be hardly any posts anywhere. Box office performance is simply interesting to some people as this thread proves. And milestones, records and 'most' is very interesting, whether it's who eats the most hot dogs or what movie grossed the most money.
However, I do think that the box office success of the MCU could impact people positively. Oprah said, "I've interviewed over 30,000 people on this show and they all had one thing in common. They all wanted validation. Every person you ever will meet shares that one common desire. They all want to know, 'do you see me? Do you hear me? Does what I say mean anything to you?'" For a group of people who might not always feel validated in their love of comics and these characters, the fact that millions of people around the globe now share their love could be validating.
What does that have to do with anything? I don't think anyone denying that the paint job is good. The "problem" is that the car itself isn't that well made and no amount of paint can fix that.
Given how the original movie kinda proved to be a flash in the pan, I think that it'll need a good marketing campaign to make the case why we should see these movies. Cameron's name could sell it, too, I think.
Doctor Strange: "You are the right person to replace Logan."
X-23: "I know there are people who disapprove... Guys on the Internet mainly."
(All-New Wolverine #4)
Last edited by luprki; 05-06-2019 at 03:58 PM.
Back on topic, the actuals are in for the weekend, and while Endgame still fell short of Force Awakens 2nd weekend record it was closer than initial estimates. Bringing in $147, 383, 211
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
Current Pull: Amazing Spider-Man and Domino
Bunn for Deadpool's Main Book!