Will AVENGERS: ENDGAME make $3 BILLION at the Worldwide box office?

[TriggerWarning]

Endgame nosedived yesterday taking in only 10 million while Force Awakens took in a whopping 31 million on its 2nd Monday. As such Endgame's domestic lead is now down to 60 million. If the rest of the week plays like Monday (and if it follows the same pattern as Infinity it will) then by the weekend Endgame will be running behind Force Awakens domestically. Extremely unlikely now that it beats Force Awakens domestically. While it should easily be able to pass Black Panther for #3 all time domestically its actually time to start wondering if it will beat Avatar for #2. I still think it will but its not so foregone anymore.

Worldwide it needs 550 million to beat Avatar. It should get 150-200 million of that domestically. Infinity was a 33% / 66% split between domestic and international money while Endgame is currently running 28% / 72%. Could be dicey if Endgame drops overseas the same way it is here.

Someone will be tempted to say I'm reading too much into one day however I'll just say that box office profits are very predictable for 99% of movies and all you have to do is read charts of past similar movies like say Infinity which is the most comparable and Force Awakens since thats the one Infinity is chasing domestically and so far Endgame is playing exactly like Infinity - extremely front loaded followed by sharp dropoffs. Avatar is in the 1% as it had an extremely abnormal box office run so its impossible to compare to. By day 11 Avatar had only made 232 million but it actually gained some weekends from prior weekends and its dropoffs when they happened were puny.

[useridgoeshere]

Someone will be tempted to say I'm reading too much into one day however I'll just say that box office profits are very predictable for 99% of movies and all you have to do is read charts of past similar movies like say Infinity which is the most comparable and Force Awakens since thats the one Infinity is chasing domestically and so far Endgame is playing exactly like Infinity - extremely front loaded followed by sharp dropoffs. Avatar is in the 1% as it had an extremely abnormal box office run so its impossible to compare to. By day 11 Avatar had only made 232 million but it actually gained some weekends from prior weekends and its dropoffs when they happened were puny.

It's not just comparing similar movies. It's comparing similar movies released at similar times. Endgame performs the same as Infinity because they are both released in April. Release Endgame at Christmas or Force Awakens in May and the patterns would be very different from what they were, even if the total would've been the same.

[Username taken]

Endgame nosedived yesterday taking in only 10 million while Force Awakens took in a whopping 31 million on its 2nd Monday. As such Endgame's domestic lead is now down to 60 million. If the rest of the week plays like Monday (and if it follows the same pattern as Infinity it will) then by the weekend Endgame will be running behind Force Awakens domestically. Extremely unlikely now that it beats Force Awakens domestically. While it should easily be able to pass Black Panther for #3 all time domestically its actually time to start wondering if it will beat Avatar for #2. I still think it will but its not so foregone anymore.

Worldwide it needs 550 million to beat Avatar. It should get 150-200 million of that domestically. Infinity was a 33% / 66% split between domestic and international money while Endgame is currently running 28% / 72%. Could be dicey if Endgame drops overseas the same way it is here.

Someone will be tempted to say I'm reading too much into one day however I'll just say that box office profits are very predictable for 99% of movies and all you have to do is read charts of past similar movies like say Infinity which is the most comparable and Force Awakens since thats the one Infinity is chasing domestically and so far Endgame is playing exactly like Infinity - extremely front loaded followed by sharp dropoffs. Avatar is in the 1% as it had an extremely abnormal box office run so its impossible to compare to. By day 11 Avatar had only made 232 million but it actually gained some weekends from prior weekends and its dropoffs when they happened were puny.

Endgame is performing pretty much like a non-holiday summer movie on its weekdays. It didn’t nosedive as there was little chance it would bring in more than $11m on its second Monday (we’re just getting into May). TFA made a ton of money on its weekdays because of the holiday season as opposed to now that schools are still very much in session (not to mention it’s second weekend was literally durin the X-mas holiday and it still had the New Year’s Day to clean up). Point is, pre-summer movies and Christmas just don’t perform the same and comparing them is very, very difficult.

Worldwide, I still think Avatar is done. Summer weekdays will still kick in the months to come and Memorial Day is around corner. The only way it misses Avatar is unless competition destroys it globally in the weeks to come which is unlikely considering how big the brand is in Asia in particular.

[TriggerWarning]

Endgame is performing pretty much like a non-holiday summer movie on its weekdays. It didn’t nosedive as there was little chance it would bring in more than $11m on its second Monday (we’re just getting into May). TFA made a ton of money on its weekdays because of the holiday season as opposed to now that schools are still very much in session (not to mention it’s second weekend was literally durin the X-mas holiday and it still had the New Year’s Day to clean up). Point is, pre-summer movies and Christmas just don’t perform the same and comparing them is very, very difficult.

Worldwide, I still think Avatar is done. Summer weekdays will still kick in the months to come and Memorial Day is around corner. The only way it misses Avatar is unless competition destroys it globally in the weeks to come which is unlikely considering how big the brand is in Asia in particular.

Its fine to discuss hypothetically discuss how Endgame might have done with a Christmas release.

But I'd rather discuss its realistic shot of beating Force Awakens and right now its has minimal chance. Its following the same pattern as Infinity which the best comparison there is and its getting crushed on a daily basis by Force Awakens at their same points of release.

[Kusanagi]

Its fine to discuss hypothetically discuss how Endgame might have done with a Christmas release.

But I'd rather discuss its realistic shot of beating Force Awakens and right now its has minimal chance. Its following the same pattern as Infinity which the best comparison there is and its getting crushed on a daily basis by Force Awakens at their same points of release.

I'd say Monday was the first day I'd qualify as crushing. Endgame had a higher second Saturday and Sunday, and only lost the weekend by about 2 million. It's the 2nd weekday totals where Force Awakens was really piling on the money.

Coupled with looming competition I think Endgame will settle for second biggest domestic of all time. That said I still think Endgame is capturing the world wide total gross from Avatar.

[TheDarman]

Endgame nosedived yesterday taking in only 10 million while Force Awakens took in a whopping 31 million on its 2nd Monday. As such Endgame's domestic lead is now down to 60 million. If the rest of the week plays like Monday (and if it follows the same pattern as Infinity it will) then by the weekend Endgame will be running behind Force Awakens domestically. Extremely unlikely now that it beats Force Awakens domestically. While it should easily be able to pass Black Panther for #3 all time domestically its actually time to start wondering if it will beat Avatar for #2. I still think it will but its not so foregone anymore.

I think the second weekend made it clear that Avengers: Endgame can't be expected to pluck the first place domestic spot for The Force Awakens. Frankly, The Force Awakens had too many advantages that Avengers: Endgame didn't. Looking at The Force Awakens, you'll see that Christmas Day fell on its second Friday. While Avengers: Endgame outperformed the former film on Saturday and Sunday, Avengers: Endgame couldn't make up the difference that was created between their respective Friday grosses. The Force Awakens had two weeks of school, and work, breaks to operate off of. Avengers: Endgame was moved another week back from the summer season when kids would be out of school to give it that boost. There was a question whether Avengers: Endgame's grosses were so high, and the hype was so high as well, that it might drop off less and still manage to outperform The Force Awakens off sheer numbers alone. It seems clear that Avengers: Endgame can't overcome those circumstantial differences with its release schedule.

As for the question of Avatar just domestically, there is no way that Avengers: Endgame doesn't pass $760 million. It has made, as of Monday, $631 million domestic. It would not only have to have a much harsher drop off from Avengers: Infinity War just proportionally--it would also need to have a must harsher drop off than its predecessor in raw grosses to fall behind Avatar in domestic rankings. Avengers: Infinity War, despite going up against Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story, still gobbled up an additional $200 million from its second Monday domestic total. Even if Avengers: Endgame does the exact same raw gross (which is unlikely, there's a reason we look at proportional drops), it would still end up at $831 million domestically. That would far and away exceed Avatar's domestic total.

Even still, with Avengers: Endgame performing comparably to Avengers: Infinity War, it would end up with a 1.5x multiplier from its second weekend. That would place it a little above $900 million. That's what I'm expecting, if only a little south of that. But I don't see it quite catching The Force Awakens. It'll come close enough to push domestic grosses north enough to beat Avatar worldwide as well, but it has a stronger international performance, by far, than The Force Awakens had.

Worldwide it needs 550 million to beat Avatar. It should get 150-200 million of that domestically. Infinity was a 33% / 66% split between domestic and international money while Endgame is currently running 28% / 72%. Could be dicey if Endgame drops overseas the same way it is here.

Again, just from raw grosses, past the second weekend of release for Avengers: Infinity War (excluding China, because it hadn't opened there yet and it is practically done with its run there with Endgame) it made an additional $714 million. Again, there is a reason why we measure proportional drop offs, not raw grasses, to make predictions. I don't see a reality in which Avengers: Endgame falls behind Avengers: Infinity War in raw grosses. Especially since I expect Endgame to outperform Infinity War with mere raw grosses domestically. I'm not too terribly worried about the split so much as I understand that China outperformed its prior gross by over $200 million when all is said and done.

Someone will be tempted to say I'm reading too much into one day however I'll just say that box office profits are very predictable for 99% of movies and all you have to do is read charts of past similar movies like say Infinity which is the most comparable and Force Awakens since thats the one Infinity is chasing domestically and so far Endgame is playing exactly like Infinity - extremely front loaded followed by sharp dropoffs. Avatar is in the 1% as it had an extremely abnormal box office run so its impossible to compare to. By day 11 Avatar had only made 232 million but it actually gained some weekends from prior weekends and its dropoffs when they happened were puny.

Right, but even playing like Avengers: Infinity War, as it has been, will see it reaching above, or around, $2.9 billion, certainly enough to top Avatar.

[JKtheMac]

Exactly this. It had all of the offensiveNess of Starship Troopers and none of the fun. I did happen to see it in 3D and the experience left me in a fuming rage for hours.

Ah, Starship Troopers. So much to say but so tangential I just can't really say it and remotely stay on topic. Suffice to say I enjoyed Starship troopers immensely, which shocked me given I was expecting to hate it.

Avatar's story is really just a symptom of deeper issues in the film industry though, where any movie that casts white people as the villains also needs a white protagonist as a heroic counterpart to be palatable to white audiences. I mean, for all that talk about Black Panther being a black empowerment story, at the end of the day all of the bad guys were black while the CIA dude was on the side of the good guys, reminding all the white viewers that hey, they're part of the solution and not part of the problem!

Mmmm. Its not so much the protagonist as the attitude. Its a hubristic movie to say the least. As you can tell, I don't want to go into detail here because its a major tangent. I just wanted to point out why this one guy was cheering from the sidelines for Endgame.

If someone wanted to open a thread asking why some people hate Avatar and want it knocked from the top of the international unadjusted charts I will be there, but I won't be starting that thread. It would rapidly turn into 'lets all hate / love Avatar at each other'.

[Username taken]

Its fine to discuss hypothetically discuss how Endgame might have done with a Christmas release.

But I'd rather discuss its realistic shot of beating Force Awakens and right now its has minimal chance. Its following the same pattern as Infinity which the best comparison there is and its getting crushed on a daily basis by Force Awakens at their same points of release.

I don't disagree. It's closely following Infinity War which isn't surprising because they came out during the same time period.

I never saw this movie beating the Force Awakens because of the release date.

[JKtheMac]

Does anyone know how much Avatar took internationally based purely on its first showing, not including its re-release?

[Kusanagi]

Avatar's story is really just a symptom of deeper issues in the film industry though, where any movie that casts white people as the villains also needs a white protagonist as a heroic counterpart to be palatable to white audiences. I mean, for all that talk about Black Panther being a black empowerment story, at the end of the day all of the bad guys were black while the CIA dude was on the side of the good guys, reminding all the white viewers that hey, they're part of the solution and not part of the problem!

Not to get off topic but Klaw was definitely white.

[TheDarman]

Not to get off topic but Klaw was definitely white.

I also don't want to pile on too much but I'm pretty sure Killmonger is the only MCU villain to date that legitimately effectually changed the protagonist's view because of how compelling the foundation of his ideas were. So, while he was black, it seems that it gave him a lot more nuance than I think even Thanos got: you can quibble with Thanos' foundational ideas; not so much with Killmonger.

[TriggerWarning]

Endgame reportedly did 12.5 million yesterday while Force Awakens did 29.5 million on its comparable day of release. Endgame now only leads FA by roughly 44 million, down from 110 million after opening weekend. It'll be down to roughly 15-20 million by the weekend so unless Endgame holds extremely well which is unlikely due to Detective Pikachu (a movie I don't get the appeal of but apparently its supposed to do well) its going to be behind FA by Monday.

[TriggerWarning]

Does anyone know how much Avatar took internationally based purely on its first showing, not including its re-release?

34 million worldwide (thank you google). So meaningless in terms of its near 2.8 billion in earnings and the dumbest excuse ever used by many who try to say the rerelease is the only reason Avatar did so well.

[JKtheMac]

Don't buy into the "re-release" myth that so many claim about Avatar as to why it did so well. It was never truly rereleased. What happened was that it was still in the theaters when it had a one weekend expansion of theaters timed with Oscar season nominations. Domestically it only accounted for about $34 million. If there even was an international expansion it likewise probably didn't amount to much.

I am not buying into any myth. It is a genuine question as to exactly what Endgame needs to beat like-for-like, because the figures I am looking at combine both releases of Avatar. So I wondered what the official uncombined figure is.

I am also entirely uninvested in "domestic" figures, being from outside the domestic marketplace myself.

the dumbest excuse ever used by many who try to say the rerelease is the only reason Avatar did so well.

Well did anyone actually say this? You seem awfully combative about this.

I found it myself. 33.2 million worldwide according to Box Office Mojo. A not insubstantial figure to knock off if it gets close.

[TheDarman]

Endgame reportedly did 12.5 million yesterday while Force Awakens did 29.5 million on its comparable day of release. Endgame now only leads FA by roughly 44 million, down from 110 million after opening weekend. It'll be down to roughly 15-20 million by the weekend so unless Endgame holds extremely well which is unlikely due to Detective Pikachu (a movie I don't get the appeal of but apparently its supposed to do well) its going to be behind FA by Monday.

It definitely will be behind The Force Awakens. Not only do you have Detective Pikachu opening (to be honest, though, I don't think many people who were going to see Avengers: Endgame on that third weekend will be dissuaded by this film anyway), but you also have the fact that The Force Awakens' third weekend was the New Year's Day weekend. That has a heck of a lot more traffic than the May 10th weekend. Especially with Mother's Day, I really don't see how Avengers: Endgame doesn't fall at least 45-50 percent. Just for reference, The Force Awakens had, yet another, only 40% drop from weekend 2 to weekend 3, largely because of the power of that holiday release window. Avengers: Endgame fell behind The Force Awakens last weekend even in terms of raw values because of a, frankly typical, 57% weekend-to-weekend drop.

The Force Awakens finally suffered a standard blockbuster drop in weekend four, which goes to show the power of that release window. I'd be really curious to see how the arithmetic would've worked out with Avengers: Endgame having launched in the holiday window. Of course, everyone got out of the way of The Force Awakens in 2015 but didn't do the same for The Last Jedi, which led to success for The Greatest Showman and Jumanji. A lot of studios took their chances with releasing their own respective films in December of 2018 and probably ended up crowding out films like Mary Poppins Returns. So, it is an open question as to whether or not Avengers: Endgame would've performed as well in a spot with so much competition now. Although, frankly, I think studios would've moved their films if Disney had decided to do that.