Will AVENGERS: ENDGAME make $3 BILLION at the Worldwide box office?

[Comic-Reader Lad]

Avengers: Endgame now stands at 2.3 billion worldwide with domestic counted until Tuesday.

So, it should make another $20 million approximately before the weekend giving it a domestic of around $665 million. This means Endgame should surpass Infinity War's total 140-day domestic take of $679 million on Friday, Endgame's 15th day.

Endgame's 2nd week drop was a bit steeper than Infinity War's (59% vs. 56%). IW's 3rd weekend drop was 46%. Assuming Endgame has a 50% drop, its 3rd weekend domestic should still be about $75 million, which would put its domestic at $740 million by end-Sunday (day 17).

It would still need about $200 million to beat out Force Awakens, and if Endgame stays in theaters for at least 140 days, it would have 123 days (more than 17 weeks) in which to do it.

That doesn't seem so crazy and insurmountable to me. It might not happen, but I don't think anyone can know for certain at this point that it WON'T happen.

On the worldwide front, Endgame will probably be at $2.5 billion by end-Sunday (domestic + intl). From there, it only needs about $300 million worldwide to beat Avatar.

Again, if $200 million of that can come from domestic, foreign will be at least another $100 million.

I think the Avatar record is more easily achieved because Endgame is playing much better overseas than Force Awakens.

Oh, and here's what the tracking is for Detective Pikachu and Endgame is this weekend per deadline.com

https://deadline.com/2019/05/pokemon...er-1202610136/

At a time when Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame is still the boss at the box office with a running global total of $2.27 billion, Legendary Entertainment/Warner Bros’ Pokémon Detective Pikachu is looking to push his way in and grab as much as he can with a $50 million–$55 million domestic opening weekend at 4,200-plus theaters, and another $90M-$120M offshore for an average global launch near $160M-plus.

In the U.S. and Canada, Pikachu will have to settle for second as Endgame‘s third weekend eyes $75M-$85M, which would be the second best haul for a third weekend after Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $90.2M.

So, Pikachu really won't hurt Endgame at all, it seems. If Endgame gets in the $75 million range this weekend, that would just be a standard drop for this type of film no matter what competition it did or did not have.

[TriggerWarning]

I am not buying into any myth. It is a genuine question as to exactly what Endgame needs to beat like-for-like, because the figures I am looking at combine both releases of Avatar. So I wondered what the official uncombined figure is.

Well did anyone actually say this? You seem awfully combative about this.

All the time. Maybe not this thread but if you go on facebook and places where its being discussed you'll see this argument constantly.

And the uncombined figure is whatever the total take is minus 34 million (12 domestic and 22 international).

[TriggerWarning]

Endgame did about 8.5 million on Wednesday to Force Awakens 28 milion. Endgame now only leads by about 24 million. Figure half of that gets swallowed tomorrow.

Endgame may pass Black Panther for #3 all time domestically by the end of the weekend but it could be a couple of weeks before it catches Avatar domestically which I still assume it will.

[TriggerWarning]

Forecasts are for Endgame to actually beat Detective Picachu this weekend. Endgame is forecast for 50-60 million and DP for around 50 million. This will push Endgame past Black Panther for #3 all time domestically.

Endgame did 7.5 million yesterday to Force Awakens 23 million on its comparable day meaning Endgame is now only about 8.5 million ahead of Force Awakens at the same point of release.

For comparison Infinity was at 486 million at this point and went on to make another 190 million. So lets give Endgame another 200 million domestically which will put it at 860 million domestically which is easily 2nd place but behind Force Awakens. That would leave 250 million needed worldwide for it to pass Avatar for worldwide box office.

On the adjusted for inflation chart an 860 million finish would put Endgame at #16 all time just ahead of Return of the Jedi. The movie sitting at #15 with an 876 million adjusted figure is none other than Avatar.

[Username taken]

Endgame is probably going to tap out at around $850m+ dom. But it'll very likely beat Avatar WW which would be very interesting


I never saw any superhero movie beating Avatar.

[Gaastra]

That said, Avengers: Endgame brought in an estimated $16.06 million,

Isn't that the comic universe number? Lol.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4511&p=.htm

That said, Avengers: Endgame brought in an estimated $16.06 million, moving to second place on the daily chart for the first time since release. For the weekend the film is looking to drop more than expected, currently looking at a three-day around $62-65 million. As of end of day Friday, the film's domestic total now stands at $676.5 million as it will soon top $700 million and move to #3 on the all-time domestic chart.

[Comic-Reader Lad]

OK, Mojo is now putting up their estimates of this weekend's box office grosses.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4512&p=.htm

Unfortunately, Avengers: Endgame fell a bit more than anticipated. In my post earlier, I thought it might fall 50% given that Infinity War fell 45.9% in its 3rd weekend. So, I thought 50% would be a worst-case scenario of the drop for Endgame.

Right now, it's estimated that Endgame fell 57.2%. It will still be the number 1 movie for the 3rd weekend with a domestic gross of $63 million.

That brings Endgame to a domestic of $723,499,739, making it highest grossing MCU movie domestically. Even before this weekend, Endgame had been the top MCU movie worldwide based on its strong international showing.

For weekend 3, it's estimated that Endgame brought in another $102 million.

Worldwide, Endgame is now at $2.485 billion. So, it only needs another $303 million to match Avatar's worldwide record box office.

However, domestically, Endgame has now slipped behind Force Awakens by almost $20 million when it had been ahead of TFA going into this weekend (although the lead had been slipping day by day). Given Endgame is now trailing, there's likely no way it can catch TFA now.

I'm now wondering if Endgame can top $850 million domestic. It would need about another $130 million to do so. Next week, John Wick comes out, but the real competition is from Disney itself with the Aladdin live-action adaptation arriving in 2 weeks.

I still think that Avatar's worldwide is within reach, but I don't see Endgame topping TFA domestically. I'm still optimistic that it can cross $3 billion, but I'm not as sure as I was before this weekend.

[Colossus1980]

Unfortunately, Avengers: Endgame fell a bit more than anticipated. In my post earlier, I thought it might fall 50% given that Infinity War fell 45.9% in its 3rd weekend. So, I thought 50% would be a worst-case scenario of the drop for Endgame.

Right now, it's estimated that Endgame fell 57.2%. It will still be the number 1 movie for the 3rd weekend with a domestic gross of $63 million.

I still think that Avatar's worldwide is within reach, but I don't see Endgame topping TFA domestically. I'm still optimistic that it can cross $3 billion, but I'm not as sure as I was before this weekend.

Endgame in it's third weekend had to contend with Pikachu, while Infinity War dealt with Life of the Party and Breaking In, both much weaker films. People underestimated the draw of Pokémon.

I don't think Endgame can catch Avatar. There were 9 countries that grossed over 100M for Avatar, only one so far for Endgame. Japan had a ridiculous 172M tally while it's a paltry 33M for Endgame. That's just one example but the most glaring one.

[Arsenal]

I wouldn’t write it off just yet (WW, not domestic). It’s still well above the pace it needs to hit weekly to surpass Avatar (domestic haul alone should cover it for the next 2-3 weeks. Have to see where we stand when the the burden shifts to Foreign I take to see if there’s a chance or not

[TheDarman]

Endgame in it's third weekend had to contend with Pikachu, while Infinity War dealt with Life of the Party and Breaking In, both much weaker films. People underestimated the draw of Pokémon.

I don't think Endgame can catch Avatar. There were 9 countries that grossed over 100M for Avatar, only one so far for Endgame. Japan had a ridiculous 172M tally while it's a paltry 33M for Endgame. That's just one example but the most glaring one.

Ehh...Avengers: Endgame has grossed over $100 million in the United Kingdom. And, lest we forget, Avengers: Endgame is currently at $610 million in China, where Avatar made a paltry $204 million. The difference between those two grosses in China is over $400 million, with a little still left in the tank (estimates are pegging a $625 million finish there). Between Japan's respective tallies, we have a difference of less than $140 million. We need to cool our jets a little bit when assessing these international numbers because China made up a lot of ground and Endgame still has a lot of play left in it.

Detective Pikachu took more wind out of Avengers: Endgame's sails than I thought it would. Even though Detective Pikachu didn't play like Deadpool 2, Avengers: Infinity War suffered a similar drop from weekend three to weekend four being out against Deadpool 2 (it took a 52.6% drop that weekend). Avengers: Endgame's third weekend comes into conflict with John Wick Chapter 3 being the biggest release. That is a franchise that had a $170 million total take for its last installment. I think it will be number one that weekend but I don't think Avengers: Endgame will have a precipitous fall like it did this weekend.

As of right now, Avengers: Endgame is still above Avengers: Infinity War's weekend-to-weekend raw grosses. My guess is the actual numbers will probably be higher as these numbers are a little more conservative on the usual and will probably widen the gap between Endgame's box office to two or three million dollar difference in its third weekend, up from a one million dollar difference given these estimates. But, assuming Avengers: Endgame performs the same way with raw grosses from here on out (which isn't a guarantee), it still has another $130 million it will gobble up in domestic box office. With that performance, it will get to $855 million from its current $725 million. Again, Endgame already had its Deadpool 2 release. My prediction is it is a bit north of that but The Force Awakens is safe at number one at $937 million domestic.

However, that number will place Avengers: Endgame about a hundred million above Avatar's domestic gross and, thus, requires a hundred million less than Avatar's international gross to pass it. With $102.3 million being added to its international total this weekend, it needs another $150 million international to match Avatar's worldwide gross along with Avengers: Endgame passing Avatar by $100 million domestically. If it plays like it did weekend-to-weekend internationally like it did from the second to third weekend, we would see Endgame's international total catch that additional $150 million by the end of Aladdin's opening weekend. John Wick isn't a franchise that plays internationally very well (it makes more than half of its total take from domestic screens) so it would seem the worst is behind Endgame's international run until Disney's own Aladdin makes its splash. Even with it suffering from that, it should pass what it needs to in international grosses by the time Godzillla: King of the Monsters comes out and really puts the stomp on Endgame.

Avengers: Endgame will pass Avatar in worldwide grosses. It won't beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens in domestic grosses. It will end up number one in the worldwide market and number two domestically.

[Username taken]

Ehh...Avengers: Endgame has grossed over $100 million in the United Kingdom. And, lest we forget, Avengers: Endgame is currently at $610 million in China, where Avatar made a paltry $204 million. The difference between those two grosses in China is over $400 million, with a little still left in the tank (estimates are pegging a $625 million finish there). Between Japan's respective tallies, we have a difference of less than $140 million. We need to cool our jets a little bit when assessing these international numbers because China made up a lot of ground and Endgame still has a lot of play left in it.

Detective Pikachu took more wind out of Avengers: Endgame's sails than I thought it would. Even though Detective Pikachu didn't play like Deadpool 2, Avengers: Infinity War suffered a similar drop from weekend three to weekend four being out against Deadpool 2 (it took a 52.6% drop that weekend). Avengers: Endgame's third weekend comes into conflict with John Wick Chapter 3 being the biggest release. That is a franchise that had a $170 million total take for its last installment. I think it will be number one that weekend but I don't think Avengers: Endgame will have a precipitous fall like it did this weekend.

As of right now, Avengers: Endgame is still above Avengers: Infinity War's weekend-to-weekend raw grosses. My guess is the actual numbers will probably be higher as these numbers are a little more conservative on the usual and will probably widen the gap between Endgame's box office to two or three million dollar difference in its third weekend, up from a one million dollar difference given these estimates. But, assuming Avengers: Endgame performs the same way with raw grosses from here on out (which isn't a guarantee), it still has another $130 million it will gobble up in domestic box office. With that performance, it will get to $855 million from its current $725 million. Again, Endgame already had its Deadpool 2 release. My prediction is it is a bit north of that but The Force Awakens is safe at number one at $937 million domestic.

However, that number will place Avengers: Endgame about a hundred million above Avatar's domestic gross and, thus, requires a hundred million less than Avatar's international gross to pass it. With $102.3 million being added to its international total this weekend, it needs another $150 million international to match Avatar's worldwide gross along with Avengers: Endgame passing Avatar by $100 million domestically. If it plays like it did weekend-to-weekend internationally like it did from the second to third weekend, we would see Endgame's international total catch that additional $150 million by the end of Aladdin's opening weekend. John Wick isn't a franchise that plays internationally very well (it makes more than half of its total take from domestic screens) so it would seem the worst is behind Endgame's international run until Disney's own Aladdin makes its splash. Even with it suffering from that, it should pass what it needs to in international grosses by the time Godzillla: King of the Monsters comes out and really puts the stomp on Endgame.

Avengers: Endgame will pass Avatar in worldwide grosses. It won't beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens in domestic grosses. It will end up number one in the worldwide market and number two domestically.

This.

The movie is at approximately $2.5bn already.

With Memorial Day coming and summer weekdays soon to come in, there’s literally no way it doesn’t pass Avatar.

[Russ840]

I don’t get the focus on the domestic take. Am I being ignorant? The only number I care for is the global take. I am I missing something ?

[TheDarman]

I don’t get the focus on the domestic take. Am I being ignorant? The only number I care for is the global take. I am I missing something ?

I think it just allows us for different analysis. It is easier to estimate domestic takes than it is international ones because there are a variety of different marketplaces, with different variables to account for. It is just easier to do market analysis on a singular market. It also helps that it is still the biggest individual market in the world. (Though China is probably going to surpass the domestic market in the next couple decades--but that's long term.) The global number is the most important number. That's the total take. But it does matter how much it makes domestically to off-set any failure to match numbers like Avatar's in the international system.

[Comic-Reader Lad]

I don’t get the focus on the domestic take. Am I being ignorant? The only number I care for is the global take. I am I missing something ?

There's really a couple of reasons.

First, Endgame is an American movie. Therefore, those of us who are American care about how well it's doing in our country. Domestic=USA+Canada.

Second, from the studios' perspective, all dollars are not created equal. The return back to the studio is highest in America (Mojo uses 55% of domestic box office as a catch-all estimate).

However, in China, the studio only gets to keep about 25% of the China box office according to the occasional mention of it on sites like Deadline.com. It's more in other territories, but never higher than in America.

So, from the studio's perspective, yes, you get bragging rights with these high foreign box office numbers, but the studio cut is less for foreign box office than it is for American box office.

Then, you have other factors that can take a toll on foreign box office such as currency conversion rates at the time you wish to repatriate the foreign box office back to America.

[Russ840]

I see. Gotcha. Thanks fellas