Rumor: Disney might buy Spider-Man from Sony for $4-5 billion

[Hybrid]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...012845480.html

Geekosity' Has the Goss

The comics rumor mill is swirling again, this time around Spider-Man.

Mikey Sutton, who runs the private Facebook group "Geekosity -- All Things Pop Culture," has apparently leaked another bit of news regarding the webbed warrior.

A Good Track Record

Sutton has a good record of releasing accurate information about the Marvel Comics Universe and the DC Extended Universe before other, perhaps more credible, sources come through with the news. So there isn't much reason not to trust him.

It's Rumored That Disney Wants To Buy Spider-Man

Sutton says Disney is interested in straight-up buying Spider-Man from Sonyso that he stays in the MCU and so that Disney keeps the rights to him.

Apparently Disney doesn't want to wait for Sony and Apple to get moving.

Would They Pay $5B For Our Hero?

Here's the text from "Geekosity":

"SCOOP – 10/9/19: Disney wants to buy Spider-Man."

"While rumors have circulated before the Sony-Disney dispute of such a purchase, it was mere speculation, especially the erroneous high number that was quoted. What I’m hearing is that Disney is looking to offer in the range of $4 to $5 billion for Spider-Man. But now the questions will be asked."

Who's Got the Deepest Pockets?

Sutton says he's only hearing one side of the story, though, and it's coming from Disney.

But Disney does have plenty of cash to throw around, and Sutton adds that they are going to need another superhero:

“Marvel’s most well-known hero, and with Iron Man and Captain America gone, they need an anchor in the MCU.”

We will have to wait until another scrap of information is released to MCU public, who are hungry for answers.

Hmm, so this might be Disney’s next big purchase. Of course, it’s a rumor, and we should always take it with a grain of salt, but it looks trustworthy. If Disney secures the total rights to Spider-Man from Sony, what do you think this could mean for the IP as a whole?

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Hmm, so this might be Disney’s next big purchase. Of course, it’s a rumor, and we should always take it with a grain of salt, but it looks trustworthy. If Disney secures the total rights to Spider-Man from Sony, what do you think this could mean for the IP as a whole?

If Sony is going to be bought out by Apple, the rights go automatically to Marvel/Disney and for free.

If Sony agree to sell Spider-Man for any money, they are finished as a major studio without their major IP which has been profitable for them with Venom and ITSV.

So I don't know why Disney would offer this much cash for this deal. Feels very unlikely to me.

And the number...remember that Disney bought Lucasfilm (which means Star Wars and Indiana Jones) for $4bn, and that included merchandizing.

Why would they spent that much money for the movie rights of an IP they already own (when they already have merchandising) whose most recent film Far From Home had a US gross of $390 mn, which is about a half of what Black Panther made leave alone IW and Endgame?

[AlexCampy89]

If Sony is going to be bought out by Apple, the rights go automatically to Marvel/Disney and for free.

If Sony agree to sell Spider-Man for any money, they are finished as a major studio without their major IP which has been profitable for them with Venom and ITSV.

So I don't know why Disney would offer this much cash for this deal. Feels very unlikely to me.

And the number...remember that Disney bought Lucasfilm (which means Star Wars and Indiana Jones) for $4bn, and that included merchandizing.

Why would they spent that much money for the movie rights of an IP they already own (when they already have merchandising) whose most recent film Far From Home had a US gross of $390 mn, which is about a half of what Black Panther made leave alone IW and Endgame?

Because FFH made a Billion alone worldwide, and 390 millions US only is a great deal, especially if you compare the numbers of Europe and China.


Also, Spider-Man is still a gold mine on his own, as everything with his name attached to it is successful business wise in a time period when Spider-Man seems (key word) to be more popular and iconic than Batman and Superman, and for sure more known than anything else Marvel has to throw in (including Iron man and Captain america).

So this is a move that allows Marvel to earn 10 billions in 10 years (at minimum).

Will Sony resist Disney? Only Time will tell, but 5 billions for Spider-Man movie rights its not a stupid move at all.

[Spider-Chan]

Also, Spider-Man is still a gold mine on his own, as everything with his name attached to it is successful business wise in a time period when Spider-Man seems (key word) to be more popular and iconic than Batman and Superman, and for sure more known than anything else Marvel has to throw in (including Iron man and Captain america).

Thing is, they already have merchandise rights. In 2014, Spider-Man merch alone made 1.3 billion:


Keep in mind, in 2014 came out TASM 2, which was considered a box-office failure. There's no need for Disney to pay that quantity of money for a set of movies that come out every 2 years or so. They already have the bigger piece of cake from Spidey's name, they don't need to pay that much money for the movie rights, specially if Sony is indeed selling their film division and Spidey's rights would come back to Disney for free.

This really sounds like a unfound rumor to me. The idea of Disney paying that much for Spider-Man movie rights is ridiculous. This rumor would have been more believable had they not go for such a high price.

[AlexCampy89]

Thing is, they already have merchandise rights. In 2014, Spider-Man merch alone made 1.3 billion:


Keep in mind, in 2014 came out TASM 2, which was considered a box-office failure. There's no need for Disney to pay that quantity of money for a set of movies that come out every 2 years or so. They already have the bigger piece of cake from Spidey's name, they don't need to pay that much money for the movie rights, specially if Sony is indeed selling their film division and Spidey's rights would come back to Disney for free.

This really sounds like a unfound rumor to me. The idea of Disney paying that much for Spider-Man movie rights is ridiculous. This rumor would have been more believable had they not go for such a high price.

But they don't want to put their hands on the plate and take the biggest slice of the cake.

They want to take the whole cake, and are willing to give Sony the current biggest cake today, to assure 10 big cakes tomorrow.

It is a long run strategy.

What if 1 billion is not a reaching point, but rather a starting point or just a leg to reach 1 billion and half or 2 billions?

Disney wants to monopolize the entertainment industry, and arguably Spider-Man is the biggest franchise in terms of entertainment.

There may be laws that forbids monopolies, but rest assured that Disney will push itself to the very boundaries of those laws.

[Spider-Chan]

It wouldn't be a monopoly since he is a character that they already own. There would be the same kind of merchandise there already is, and there would be already Spider-Man movies every two years or so.

This thread debunks this rumor and makes a really good breakdown about why paying that kind of money is bad idea. In summary, it would take around 20 years for Disney to recover 4 billion.

Again, had the quantity being lower I would have believed that there's certain truth to this rumor, but 4-5 billion for a franchise that only one of their movies has made a billion? Add to that the possibility of getting it free anyway.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

Because FFH made a Billion alone worldwide,

As did Black Panther, Captain Marvel and every single Avengers movie.

...and 390 millions US only is a great deal, especially if you compare the numbers of Europe and China.

The fact is the actual profitability of any Hollywood movie is largely shaped by US grosses. Grosses in other countries go to distribution, tariffs, customs, and other fees. The most profitable Spider-Man movie is still the first Raimi movie which unadjusted for inflation made $403mn and adjusted made $626mn.

[CrimsonEchidna]

That's the same ballpark that Disney bought Marvel as a whole for. Really puts into perspective how lucrative the Spider-Man IP is.

[leo619]

Good God I hope not, Disney have been dragging their foot with Miles Morales and the last thing I want is Disney to get their hands on that. If I recall, one of the reasons the original deal feel through is because Disney wanted more of a say in Sony's Spider properties.
No, no and more no. Disney was already afraid after the success that Into the Spider Verse was that their movie wouldn't be up to snuff.
I do not want Disney to have any control of limiting or removing the success that Sony is bringing with their Spider Verse series.

[Bloxer]

Good God I hope not, Disney have been dragging their foot with Miles Morales and the last thing I want is Disney to get their hands on that. If I recall, one of the reasons the original deal feel through is because Disney wanted more of a say in Sony's Spider properties.
No, no and more no. Disney was already afraid after the success that Into the Spider Verse was that their movie wouldn't be up to snuff.
I do not want Disney to have any control of limiting or removing the success that Sony is bringing with their Spider Verse series.

Most of this sounds not true and made up to an extent

[Celgress]

I hope Disney does buy the rights or obtains said rights in some other fashion (the possible Sony + Apple merger). As a fan, I find it incredibly frustrating that large parts of Spidey's mythos including some traditional villains and supporting cast members can't be used in certain media formats. I'd rather all Spider-Man rights were under one umbrella so creative freedom isn't hamstrung.

[leo619]

Most of this sounds not true and made up to an extent

Both Kevin Feige talking about how he was concerned about if Far From Home was up to snuff to hang with Into The Spider Verse and Disney wanting input in Sony's Spider Films can both be found by just doing a quick google source, so you assuming that doesn't sound true is just your ignorance.

[JKtheMac]

If Sony is going to be bought out by Apple, the rights go automatically to Marvel/Disney and for free.

This is a persistent rumour that is provably untrue. The leaked contracts clearly allow for any prospective buyer to have the rights transferred to them. If Apple or anyone else bought Sony Studios they would obviously be in the market for buying the rights to Spider-Man too. Indeed why would they bother otherwise? The IP that Sony lay claim to is where their value lies.

There is a nice summary HERE

As can be seen, this point remains unchanged:

“Sony can sell and transfer the rights contained in the license agreement to individuals or other corporations, including other Major Studios”

Quite where this rumour started is confusing but given the many untruths about the Spider-Man contract that get regurgitated every few weeks it is no surprise. Clearly nobody in the entertainment media bothers to fact check anything these days.

Sometimes I wonder if some reporters in the entertainment media look to fan forums to try and understand what is going on in superhero contracts and thereby pick up many untruths and unfounded rumours and take them as informed facts.

This goes right along side “Disney bought merchandising rights to Spider-Man outright” as a media fuelled misunderstanding of the actual contracts.

At least the merchandising deal can be confusing given that this part of the contract keeps being changed and requires other parts of the contract for context. Also the way Disney like to talk about the merchandising rights is to say they were ‘purchased’, and ignore that this is an ongoing arrangement that is subject to review. That clouds the issue.

The transfer rights on the other hand are very clear.

[Revolutionary_Jack]

This is a persistent rumour that is provably untrue.

Every single website I read including Wall Street Journal says the rights return to Marvel in case of merger. So if this is a mistake it's not one that I made.

In any case, those leaked documents stem from the period before the Sony-Disney deal that led to Captain America Civil War and Homecoming. So maybe this was a new clause added then. Or that this is a clause that isn't strong enough to get past lawyers.

[JKtheMac]

Every single website I read including Wall Street Journal says the rights return to Marvel in case of merger. So if this is a mistake it's not one that I made.

In any case, those leaked documents stem from the period before the Sony-Disney deal that led to Captain America Civil War and Homecoming. So maybe this was a new clause added then. Or that this is a clause that isn't strong enough to get past lawyers.

Absolutely, this gets repeated everywhere. I wasn’t blaming you personally for repeating it. It isn’t “true” though. It would only prove true if Sony sold up their studios and didn’t bother about the IP which would be very stupid of them.

Just as the leaked contracts make it clear that it was never “true”* that if Sony didn’t make a movie for a certain number of years the rights reverted. The truth has always been more complex and while many media claims had substance they often lacked the nuance of contractual reality.

*it is kind of true that they need to make a certain number of movies in set times but also kind of false because they could also use other methods to extend the contract.

From what we know of the 2015 revisions, they still used the existing contract and effectively all they did was simplify how money changed hands in order for the production buy-in to balance out the merchandising rights payment. This made it such that Disney were not actually paying for the merchandising rights but instead swapping production input for them. This is why it was so obvious that the recent press reporting over the MCU involvement were ill-informed. They didn’t ever quite get that by not continuing or modifying the 2015 contract they would default back to the earlier contract and Disney would be in a worse position. Their merchandising department would have been up in arms for starters.

Given the undisputed value of the rights to both parties it is unlikely in the extreme that Sony allowed a clause to remove the transfer of rights, precisely because that would hugely change the value of the property if Sony ever decided they wanted to get out of the movie business.

In general a lot of the rumours rely on thinking of Sony as being in a weaker negotiating position. They are certainly not.

As to the value of these rights, they could very well number in the low billions. Comparing them unfavourably to Star Wars misses a few key points. The brand is very strong and relatable internationally just as Star Wars is, it is entirely possible Star Wars was undervalued, and Spider-Man alone by itself is high on the list of brand value with a comparable value to The Avengers and indeed Star Wars.

If you can imagine a property as a Lego line, specifically themed around it as a property with a similar size to the range that say Star Wars or Harry Potter has, then it probably has a similar value. Spider-Man has the potential for this.