All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Tami]

Until today, I didn't realize that 17 states are having fully open Primaries. Given that information, I think Sanders chances of winning the nomination just shot up in my book. Not so much because Independents favor Bernie more - there isn't really that much of a change from the number of states that had open Primaries in 2016, from what I gather. Since most Republicans won't be voting for whom they want for their Republican candidate, though, many will be voting for the candidate that they think Trump has the best chance of winning against. Given that they are so afraid of the 'S' word, and likely think most Americans are, too, many of them in these 17 states will probably come out and vote for Sanders, which might be the edge he needs to become the Democratic candidate.

There is an ongoing effort, from what I read, to mess with the Democratic Primaries by having Republicans vote for the candidate they feel is least likely to win against Trump, as you said. No way to stop them from doing that.

[Celgress]

Until today, I didn't realize that 17 states are having fully open Primaries. Given that information, I think Sanders chances of winning the nomination just shot up in my book. Not so much because Independents favor Bernie more - there isn't really that much of a change from the number of states that had open Primaries in 2016, from what I gather. Since most Republicans won't be voting for whom they want for their Republican candidate, though, many will be voting for the candidate that they think Trump has the best chance of winning against. Given that they are so afraid of the 'S' word, and likely think most Americans are, too, many of them in these 17 states will probably come out and vote for Sanders, which might be the edge he needs to become the Democratic candidate.

I know of several popular Right-Wing YouTubers (500k plus channels) who have urged their fans to do just that (I've watched the videos). Most of these YouTubers "favor" Sanders for obvious reasons or Warren who they also see as "weak" because of the Native American issue.

Thinking about the above situation (and things with the efforts so far to stop Trump in general) I can't help but post this -

[Tendrin]

Gosh. It's almost like there might be a reason open primaries with same day party switching might not be such a great thing.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

I know of several popular Right-Wing YouTubers (500k plus channels) who have urged their fans to do just that (I've watched the videos). Most of these YouTubers "favor" Sanders for obvious reasons or Warren who they also see as "weak" because of the Native American issue.

Thinking about the above situation (and things with the efforts so far to stop Trump in general) I can't help but post this -

While I doubt anyone is going to beat Trump in 2020, Sanders probably has the best shot if he actually gets the nomination.

The Republicans are doing the same thing the Democrats did in 2016. Elevating a candidate that they think will hurt the party and be the easiest to defeat.

They Always Wanted Trump

Inside Team Clinton’s year-long struggle to find a strategy against the opponent they were most eager to face.

Clinton’s team drew up a plan to pump Trump up. Shortly after her kickoff, top aides organized a strategy call, whose agenda included a memo to the Democratic National Committee: “This memo is intended to outline the strategy and goals a potential Hillary Clinton presidential campaign would have regarding the 2016 Republican presidential field,” it read.

“The variety of candidates is a positive here, and many of the lesser known can serve as a cudgel to move the more established candidates further to the right. In this scenario, we don’t want to marginalize the more extreme candidates, but make them more ‘Pied Piper’ candidates who actually represent the mainstream of the Republican Party,” read the memo.

“Pied Piper candidates include, but aren’t limited to:
• Ted Cruz
• Donald Trump
• Ben Carson

We need to be elevating the Pied Piper candidates so that they are leaders of the pack and tell the press to [take] them seriously."

While the campaign also kept a close eye on Rubio, monitoring his announcement speech and tightly designing the tweeted responses to his moves, Clinton’s team in Brooklyn was delightedly puzzled by Trump’s shift into the pole position that July after attacking John McCain by declaring, “I like people who weren’t captured.”

Eleven days after those comments about McCain, Clinton aides sought to push the plan even further: An agenda item for top aides’ message planning meeting read, “How do we prevent Bush from bettering himself/how do we maximize Trump and others?"

[Mister Mets]

Until today, I didn't realize that 17 states are having fully open Primaries. Given that information, I think Sanders chances of winning the nomination just shot up in my book. Not so much because Independents favor Bernie more - there isn't really that much of a change from the number of states that had open Primaries in 2016, from what I gather. Since most Republicans won't be voting for whom they want for their Republican candidate, though, many will be voting for the candidate that they think Trump has the best chance of winning against. Given that they are so afraid of the 'S' word, and likely think most Americans are, too, many of them in these 17 states will probably come out and vote for Sanders, which might be the edge he needs to become the Democratic candidate.

This requires a lot of organization to have an impact. You need a lot of Republicans to switch their registration, vote for Sanders and then fill out the registration again.

To give an example of one relatively small state, just over 380,000 Democrats voted in the 2016 Alabama presidential primary.

In order to affect the outcome of a race of that magnitude where one side is leading by five percent, you'd need about 20,000 Republicans on board. In that one state.

[Steel Inquisitor]

While I doubt anyone is going to beat Trump in 2020, Sanders probably has the best shot if he actually gets the nomination.

Why are you assuming just because Trump did something Sanders will be able to replicate it, effortlessly? That required both Comey and Russia to get him over the finish line and he still lost the popular vote by millions.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

Why are you assuming just because Trump did something Sanders will be able to replicate it, effortlessly? That required both Comey and Russia to get him over the finish line and he still lost the popular vote by millions.

How did you get that from my post?

I said I doubt anyone is going to beat Trump in 2020. That includes Sanders.

I think Sanders has a better shot at winning than the other candidates, but I don't think he'd actually win.

And as for the popular vote. I expect Trump to lose it this election too.

New York and California almost guarantee that the Democrat's candidate will win the popular vote this time around too.

[Iron Maiden]

Trump won Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by such small margins that anything can happen if the Democrats get the right message out with the right messenger. Added all together it was only about 100,000 votes

[PaulBullion]

Trump won Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by such small margins that anything can happen if the Democrats get the right message out with the right messenger. Added all together it was only about 100,000 votes

I just don't think any Democrat* can do it. Bernie has too much baggage and it's too easy to turn people against him.


*edit: Should have said candidate running for Democrats, as Bernie is not a member.

[PaulBullion]

[Superbat]

In the Iowa caucus, Bernie had the most support from women, youth and non-white voters. His non-white support tripled Pete Buttigieg.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...cus-polls.html

[Adam Allen]

Trump won Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by such small margins that anything can happen if the Democrats get the right message out with the right messenger. Added all together it was only about 100,000 votes

Trump didn't win Minnesota. But, looking at the numbers, it was closer than it ever should have been.

[PaulBullion]

In the Iowa caucus, Bernie had the most support from women, youth and non-white voters. His non-white support tripled Pete Buttigieg.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...cus-polls.html

What, 3 of the four Hispanics that caucused in lily white Iowa went for Bernie? Alert the media!!

[PaulBullion]

You do realize that voter turnout is a factor in elections?

If not, let me explain real quick:
In our polarized society, elections become less and less about getting people to switch party. It's about getting your people to get out and vote, and their people to stay home.

That is where social media election influencing leverages: Cause disappointment in the Democratic candidate by digging out skeletons, taking voting history details out of context or just plain making up lies.
On the other hand, get GOP leaning voters who have many reasons to be disappointed in Trump energized by demonizing the Democratic candidate, using similar tools.

And I had forgotten about them until I saw that debate meme on twitter, but they will definitely go after Jane Sanders and Burlington College will be the new Whitewater, just probably with more "there" there.

[PaulBullion]

If Sanders does not win New Hampshire by at least 10 points, his campaign is over. He just won't admit it till some time after 2024.