All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[numberthirty]

My comment was in response to someone asking about the polls.

We shouldn't assume that everyone else is so knowledgeable about the specifics of electoral politics to have come to a relatively nuanced conclusion about one candidate's strength in a particular swing state. It's also entirely possible that someone else has the same information we do, but has reached a different conclusion.

And it's relevant in the discussion to consider that while Sanders is doing better than Biden in Michigan, he's doing worse in Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If someone is talking about "What The Facts Are..." when it comes to what will be a risk when it comes to the next General Election?

Then, yes. We had better be able to safely assume that someone doing so can easily put together the obvious case for why Sanders would have better numbers than Biden in Michigan.

Otherwise, you have someone making the same case for what "The Facts Are..." that wound up paving the road to a Trump win the last time out. Assumptions about the numbers and what they meant were an obvious aspect of Trump winding up with the 307 that people believed HRC had in the bag.

Buying into that sort of thing a second time makes right around "Zero..." sense.

[Robotman]

So basically the electoral college may screw us again in 2020. It’s doing the exact opposite of what it was intended to do. Elizabeth Warren is my candidate of choice but it looks like she has a lot of work to do. despite big gains in national polls, she has yet to win over voters in the swing states. She’s still not doing great with minorities either.

[Mister Mets]

If someone is talking about "What The Facts Are..." when it comes to what will be a risk when it comes to the next General Election?

Then, yes. We had better be able to safely assume that someone doing so can easily put together the obvious case for why Sanders would have better numbers than Biden in Michigan.

Otherwise, you have someone making the same case for what "The Facts Are..." that wound up paving the road to a Trump win the last time out. Assumptions about the numbers and what they meant were an obvious aspect of Trump winding up with the 307 that people believed HRC had in the bag.

Buying into that sort of thing a second time makes right around "Zero..." sense.

You seem to be responding to points that aren't made.

Theleviathan asked a question.

I gave one of the responses, and you don't seem to argue with anything I was saying. Your point seems to be that my points were so obvious we don't even need to bring it up, except we really shouldn't expect everyone reading a general politics board to recall an upset in a state primary a little over three years ago, much less to the exact same conclusions about what it means.

[worstblogever]

Hell, comic book versions of businessmen are more believable.

Roxxon wouldn't even cross-promote with Trump's businesses. And they're goddamned morons.

[Kirby101]

In the list of evil comic businessmen, Trump is the wrestling promoter from Amazing Fantasy #15
He is Paste Pot Pete who chanced upon an infinity stone.

[Celgress]

So basically the electoral college may screw us again in 2020. It’s doing the exact opposite of what it was intended to do. Elizabeth Warren is my candidate of choice but it looks like she has a lot of work to do. despite big gains in national polls, she has yet to win over voters in the swing states. She’s still not doing great with minorities either.

Reminds me of the recent Canadian Election (I'm a dual American/Canadian citizen) Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau lost the popular vote (by a couple of points) yet still won a plurality of seats (not a clear majority but close). Now there are rumblings of separation coming from Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and to a lesser degree, Newfoundland (four out of ten provinces) because these regions despise Trudeau (for various reasons and feel they've got shafted). The ironic bit being Trudeau ran last time around on reforming the election system so we'd have proportional representation which if it had gone through he'd be in a much less secure position today. Of course there are many parties in Canada rather than two, still, people are not happy with the current "first past the post system" in which a candidate can gain just over a quarter of the vote to win a seat (an occurrence that happened in many districts this time around).

[InformationGeek]

Oh look, more hatred.

Trump rejects Native American Heritage Month, proclaims November “National American History and Founders Month.” https://t.co/ZnBGIaUcXj

[Theleviathan]

As for that, please quote the post.

What I actually said is that Biden is probably every bit as weak with certain parts of his own base(never mind voters in a General) as HRC ever was.

If there is some sort of polling that shows Biden being stronger than Warren/Sanders among younger members of the Democratic Party base, it shouldn't be all that hard to dig up.

My apologies, it was another poster who made that bogus claim.

All candidates have weak areas of base voters. If they didn't it wouldn't be a race right now. Biden is weaker in younger voters. Younger voters are also the least reliable group of voters we know of.

[mogwen]

Oh look, more hatred.

National American History and Founders Month?!!! In 2 months he will anounce the first Purge!

[Theleviathan]

So basically the electoral college may screw us again in 2020. It’s doing the exact opposite of what it was intended to do. Elizabeth Warren is my candidate of choice but it looks like she has a lot of work to do. despite big gains in national polls, she has yet to win over voters in the swing states. She’s still not doing great with minorities either.

She's also my favored candidate and it's encouraging to me the way she's ground-gamed her way to some serious support in Iowa. That's encouraging for places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Less so on places like Florida.

I also think it's worth nothing that all the places where there are toss-ups for Senate seats are also in states that Biden is polling significantly better than Warren or Sanders. That's nothing to dismiss either.

[4saken1]

Otherwise, you have someone making the same case for what "The Facts Are..." that wound up paving the road to a Trump win the last time out.

Yeah, the 'facts' on October 27, 2016 were different than the 'facts' on November 8, 2016.

[4saken1]

So basically the electoral college may screw us again in 2020. It’s doing the exact opposite of what it was intended to do. Elizabeth Warren is my candidate of choice but it looks like she has a lot of work to do. despite big gains in national polls, she has yet to win over voters in the swing states. She’s still not doing great with minorities either.

It's a feature, not a bug. It is designed to keep the people from getting the President they want while allowing for the powers that be to maintain their control. Slap some patriotic bullshit and 'preventing mob rule' rationale on it for the dumbfucks and call it the ol' All-American way of doing things and that makes it all A-OK.

[4saken1]

Younger voters are also the least reliable group of voters we know of.

Yet somehow the most butthurt because the candidates they want don't win Primaries......

[Malvolio]

In the list of evil comic businessmen, Trump is the wrestling promoter from Amazing Fantasy #15
He is Paste Pot Pete who chanced upon an infinity stone.

Trump is a wrestling promoter. He's the only guy to host back to back Wrestle-Manias. He bases half of his persona on his old buddy Vince McMahon. He still thinks he really owned WWE RAW for two weeks.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

Out of all the Democratic candidates, Yang has the worse supporters, but coming up third are Buttigieg supporters.

I said second, then remembered Tulsi. She has the second worst.

When an audience member asked about conditions in Gaza during a campaign stop in Mason City, Mr. Buttigieg began responding in Arabic. The overwhelmingly white audience, largely unaware of what he said, broke into raucous applause.

As for the man himself.

“I just don’t think there’s good and bad people,” Mr. Buttigieg said later, speaking on the bus. “When you vote for this president, particularly when you vote for him a second time, you are at best tolerating bad things and at worst having very bad things drawn out of you. But I don’t think that’s the same as thinking the world is divided into people who are good and people who are bad.”

Actually, Republicans are bad.

Screw them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/u...gieg-iowa.html