All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Kirby101]

Iowa doesn't matter. It is a Caucus of a white, farm State. It works very differently than a regular primary. The only thing it does is causes some low in the polls to drop out.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Iowa doesn't matter. It is a Caucus of a white, farm State. It works very differently than a regular primary. The only thing it does is causes some low in the polls to drop out.

It does matter. It’s huge for donations and building momentum. Obama would not have been President without Iowa

[SquirrelMan]

I am curious about the people who will back Sanders in a presidential election, who would not vote for Biden.

Who are the Sanders voters who would vote for Trump, or at least stay home in key swing states when Trump is up for reelection against a Biden/ Duckworth (or whoever) ticket?

People like Susan Sarandon: Privileged, either male or post menopause, with a willingness to let it all burn down in hopes of a better America growing from the ashes of minorities.

[Tami]

Bernie Sanders told Elizabeth Warren in private 2018 meeting that a woman can't win, sources say

(CNN)The stakes were high when Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren met at Warren's apartment in Washington, DC, one evening in December 2018. The longtime friends knew that they could soon be running against each other for president.

The two agreed that if they ultimately faced each other as presidential candidates, they should remain civil and avoid attacking one another, so as not to hurt the progressive movement. They also discussed how to best take on President Donald Trump, and Warren laid out two main reasons she believed she would be a strong candidate: She could make a robust argument about the economy and earn broad support from female voters.

Sanders responded that he did not believe a woman could win.

The description of that meeting is based on the accounts of four people: two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.

That evening, Sanders expressed frustration at what he saw as a growing focus among Democrats on identity politics, according to one of the people familiar with the conversation. Warren told Sanders she disagreed with his assessment that a woman could not win, three of the four sources said.

[Kirby101]

It does matter. It’s huge for donations and building momentum. Obama would not have been President without Iowa

Like I said, it matters about staying in the race, but not as an indication of who will eventually win. Talk to Muskie, Gephardt and Harkin.

[Tami]

Democrats voice concerns over Sanders

Democrats who believe Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) had a negative influence on the 2016 general election against President Trump are increasingly expressing worries he’ll hurt the party again in 2020.

The Democrats complaining about Sanders, some of whom have histories with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, argue the rhetoric being employed by the Vermont senator in some cases goes too far in damaging his rivals.

They say it will make it harder for the party to unify around a nominee, and they’re particularly worried that supporters of Sanders won’t back any nominee who isn’t their favored candidate.

“He needs to stop,” said one Democratic strategist, who is not affiliated with any of the presidential campaigns. “It's not helpful and it actually hurts the party. It’s like he didn't learn his lesson the last time. It’s incredibly short-sighted and terrible.”

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Like I said, it matters about staying in the race, but not as an indication of who will eventually win. Talk to Muskie, Gephardt and Harkin.

And like I said, it absolutely mattered for who would win for Obama when he pretty much needed to win there to have a shot

[Mister Mets]

Iowa doesn't matter. It is a Caucus of a white, farm State. It works very differently than a regular primary. The only thing it does is causes some low in the polls to drop out.

Whether Iowa should matter is a different question from whether it does.

One key detail is that whoever wins Iowa has major momentum heading into New Hampshire. If it's Biden, the nomination is likely over, because opportunities are limited for anyone else to get enough attention. If it's Sanders, it'll probably destroy Warren in New Hampshire (and if it's Warren, she probably destroys Sanders.)

In 538's model, Biden has a 20% chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa, and an 80% chance if he wins.
Buttigieg has a 2% chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa, and a 37% chance if he wins.
Sanders has a 8% chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa, and a 61% chance if he wins.
Warren has a 5% chance of winning the nomination if she loses Iowa, and a 55% chance if she wins.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lear-favorite/

[Billy Batson]

Bernie Sanders told Elizabeth Warren in private 2018 meeting that a woman can't win, sources say

So this fake news was posted here as well

[Scott Taylor]

Whether Iowa should matter is a different question from whether it does.

One key detail is that whoever wins Iowa has major momentum heading into New Hampshire. If it's Biden, the nomination is likely over, because opportunities are limited for anyone else to get enough attention. If it's Sanders, it'll probably destroy Warren in New Hampshire (and if it's Warren, she probably destroys Sanders.)

In 538's model, Biden has a 20% chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa, and an 80% chance if he wins.
Buttigieg has a 2% chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa, and a 37% chance if he wins.
Sanders has a 8% chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa, and a 61% chance if he wins.
Warren has a 5% chance of winning the nomination if she loses Iowa, and a 55% chance if she wins.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lear-favorite/

Its all about timing. Iowa is important because of timing. Polls can tell you one thing or another all day, but the results of actual voting are the first true indicator of what is really going on. So Iowa is also a kind of reality check for the pollsters.

[Tami]

So this fake news was posted here as well

I don't usually associate CNN with 'fake news'. Still, there is room for discussion.

[SquirrelMan]

Probably, but I wish he had done better in the polls anyway.

He once ran into a burning house to save a woman's life! He's dating Night Nurse! If he had been white, he'd have run away with the nomination.

[Tami]

He once ran into a burning house to safe a man's life! He's dating Night Nurse! If he had been white, he'd have run away with the nomination.

From Wikipedia

On April 12, 2012, Booker saved a woman from a house fire, suffering smoke inhalation and second-degree burns on his hands in the process. Newark Fire Chief John Centanni said that Booker's actions possibly saved the woman's life.[65] After Hurricane Sandy destroyed much of the shoreline areas of New Jersey and New York in late October 2012, Booker invited Newarkers without power to eat and sleep in his home.[66] In February 2013, responding to a Twitter post, Booker helped a nervous constituent propose to his girlfriend.[67] Booker rescued a dog from freezing temperatures in January 2013 and another dog that had been abandoned in a cage in July 2013.[68][69]

[Tami]

Whenever something negative is published by the news media about Sanders, his supporters (based on what I have seen on Twitter) go with, 'Fake News', 'No, it's not true', 'Bernie is better than this', and so on.

Sound familiar?

[Tami]

The Left Doesn’t Want a Biden Nomination — But It’s Split on How to Stop Him

I think the majority of 'The Left' are supporting Biden.

Progressive Democrats are growing increasingly concerned that their preferred presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders risk splitting the movement’s vote and handing the Democratic nomination to Joe Biden.

The anxieties have led to calls by some for one of the two candidates to drop out before the March 3 “Super Tuesday” contests and endorse the other, in order to coalesce the left behind one standard-bearer. But others reject that approach and say both Sanders and Warren should stay in to amass delegates and join forces at the nominating convention in July.

“A movement can’t have two leaders. There needs to be one going into Super Tuesday,” said Sean McElwee, a progressive organizer and co-founder of the research firm Data for Progress, who called for a pre-Super Tuesday winnowing to unify behind one candidate.

oh boy.....