All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[numberthirty]

Warren came in 3rd in Iowa, I wouldn't write her off just yet. Lets' see how well she does in the next few states.

Honestly, I wouldn't count anyone out just yet.

There are notable issues, but nothing that is going to knock anyone out right away.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Well, Trump wanted to use Ukraine to smear Biden and get him out of the race, he seems to be collapsing; I don't know if it was the Ukraine that did it, but it doesn't matter, King Moron got what he wanted.
Of course, he had to take an impeachment to do it, but there's no actual punishment for that in a GOP world. Heck, maybe he'll take another impeachment closer to the election to knock out a frontrunner.

I don't know if it's the Ukraine. Democrats aren't all that interested in that and they are the ones voting right now.

Biden's issue is that his whole argument was "I'm the adult in the room who can win and I will bring you back to the Obama era". Then he starts losing, so the electability argument is gone. He's making mistakes and being a gaffe machine, the adult argument is gone. And as popular as Obama was, he's not there anymore and it's easier to seperate the popular man from the actual time period.

[kidfresh512]

I think the Republicans parlayed the impeachment issue into an effective public attack on Biden. How much that played into his drop I'm not sure, but it's a factor. I don't think even the most fever-pitched Sanders' lover thought it'd be Klobuchar and Buttigieg in the moderate lane after New Hampshire. (Hell, Knight of the Lake insulted me repeatedly for suggesting that this very scenario was possible)

Biden's descent has been rapid and substantial. I think there is a great deal of that which can be cited as Republican driven. The question now is, how quickly do the black voters who have been Biden's base of support abandon ship and to whom do they flock.

I agree. I think all the Hunter Biden attacks did have an effect. Even if there was nothing there it had the desired effect of muddying everything. But watching some of the coverage a lot of the pundits brought up Biden was weirdly shielded from appearances on the cable shows and big interviews as well. He and his campaign kind of let trump and fox news speculation about Hunter become "real".

His "elect ability argument is way dented. But, staying in he can argue that Iowa and NH really only focus on white voters. There are not nearly representative of the diversity of the country where Klobucar and Pete are significantly weak right now in their outreach.

Buttigieg trailing Bernie by only 4% in NH is another win for him. I expected something like a 8-12% margin, especially given Bernie's performance in the same state in 2016.

Klobuchar is an obvious winner, she went from "should drop out" to viable campaign. The results are mostly good, but some bad for Bernie. Good in that going into Super Tuesday there are at least three serious moderates splitting votes and Biden still lingering. The bad....three (four if you count Biden) moderates are splitting votes and he isn't generating the separation you'd expect in that scenario. The exit info on tonight is going to be interesting.

Klobuchar somehow needs to magically grow her campaign and find money quickly to build on the momentum. The money argument is a strong reason Bloomberg is still being discussed.

Even where he is a non factor in the election tonight his ads are all over cable news

[Theleviathan]

The gap already widened a point with the next batch of results. It's all relative. A month ago Buttigieg was surging in NH and a loss there would have looked devastating. Now Sander's started surging at the right time a week or so ago and we are comparing his results to last year. Part of that was Biden taking a hit. Buttigieg ultimately is going to have a war with Biden and Bloomberg soon to see if one of them can consolidate the moderate lane.

Warren is done imo. She's under 10% in a state that is closely connected with her state. I legit thought she was going to drop out when she started talking. I'm convinced MA is the only thing keeping her close.

Being honest is helpful. If I had declared a month ago that Sanders would beat Buttigieg by 5% in New Hampshire you'd have gone on an epic rant deriding me. Even a week ago if I had said Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get nearly 50% of New Hampshire you'd have similarly gone on a rant. This result is a mix of good and bad for Bernie and the bad is that simply isn't enough of a margin to feel happy about.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Warren came in 3rd in Iowa, I wouldn't write her off just yet. Lets' see how well she does in the next few states.

Losing this badly in NH is going to ding her. She would need a massive rally that I just don't see. I can't envision a scenario where she take a huge blow in NH and turns that into momentum to jump 10 points in Nevada, then lose badly in SC anyways. Her best and last chance is to bet everything on MA and try to have the biggest win of anybody in her homestate.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Biden must have got the news that Bloomberg is cutting into his African American support because he's going all in on that right now and completely ignoring NH and NV. Smart move. His gameplan is that Southern firewall holding up because he has questions now.

[Theleviathan]

Warren came in 3rd in Iowa, I wouldn't write her off just yet. Lets' see how well she does in the next few states.

Everyone will be technically in it until Super Tuesday. But she's done. Biden is too unless he puts up some blow-outs and I just don't see that happening.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Being honest is helpful. If I had declared a month ago that Sanders would beat Buttigieg by 5% in New Hampshire you'd have gone on an epic rant deriding me. Even a week ago if I had said Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get nearly 50% of New Hampshire you'd have similarly gone on a rant. This result is a mix of good and bad for Bernie and the bad is that simply isn't enough of a margin to feel happy about.

No I wouldn't have. I said back then that Buttigieg was threatening to be the spoiler for Sanders and Warren because he was surging in early states they needed to build momentum. Don't assume things. I made it very clear Buttigieg was going all in on first two states strategy and had potential to win that (though I said I doubt he parlays that into an actual nomination). Hell when Warren was surging she was winning N at a point, now she's at under 10%. **** changes very fast. I didn't predict anything big Bernie until this recent surge.

[numberthirty]

Losing this badly in NH is going to ding her. She would need a massive rally that I just don't see. I can't envision a scenario where she take a huge blow in NH and turns that into momentum to jump 10 points in Nevada, then lose badly in SC anyways. Her best and last chance is to bet everything on MA and try to have the biggest win of anybody in her homestate.

I don't know.

Going in, I couldn't really see her taking from Bernie in NH and I couldn't really see her taking from either of folks that will probably round out the top three.

Just not her race. Hard telling if it really hurts her section of support(fundraising being the obvious exception).

[Theleviathan]

No I wouldn't have. I said back then that Buttigieg was threatening to be the spoiler for Sanders and Warren because he was surging in early states they needed to build momentum. Don't assume things. I made it very clear Buttigieg was going all in on first two states strategy and had potential to win that (though I said I doubt he parlays that into an actual nomination). Hell when Warren was surging she was winning N at a point, now she's at under 10%. **** changes very fast. I didn't predict anything big Bernie until this recent surge.

You also were insulting to my contention that Buttigieg could win Iowa and have a path forward. I said that months ago and you acted like a dink about it.

He's now under a 3% lead. This is not what Bernie supporters thought they'd see tonight if they're being honest. Hell, I'm not even a Bernie cultist and I thought he'd win comfortably.

[Celgress]

Well, Trump wanted to use Ukraine to smear Biden and get him out of the race, he seems to be collapsing; I don't know if it was the Ukraine that did it, but it doesn't matter, King Moron got what he wanted.
Of course, he had to take an impeachment to do it, but there's no actual punishment for that in a GOP world. Heck, maybe he'll take another impeachment closer to the election to knock out a frontrunner.

When I speculated it was possible Trump was willing to be impeached just to undermine Biden, people on this very forum scoffed at me. I just what to mention that.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

You also were insulting to my contention that Buttigieg could win Iowa and have a path forward. I said that months ago and you acted like a dink about it.

He's now under a 3% lead. This is not what Bernie supporters thought they'd see tonight if they're being honest. Hell, I'm not even a Bernie cultist and I thought he'd win comfortably.

I thought he could win Iowa. I said I see no path for him to win the nomination. He's fucked in South Carolina. He's in 5th in Nevada and in 10 days needs to make up about 13 points to have a shot there. He's in single digits in MA and CA. He's polling at 5 in Texas. Those are significant states if you want the nom. His pathway was big wins in Iowa and NH and praying it mattered everywhere else. That was the game for him. He didn't. He basically got a tie in Iowa and loss in NH. I don't see his space in the hard blue states or the red states. Maybe the midwest, but Klobuchar is there now and the other frontrunners aren't doing bad there.

I don't know why you are assuming these things. I seriously thought Biden was going to walk away with this until about a month and a half ago.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

When I speculated it was possible Trump was willing to be impeached just to undermine Biden, people on this very forum scoffed at me. I just what to mention that.

I predicted that Democrats wouldn't be able to sell an acquittal outcome.

[Tendrin]

When I speculated it was possible Trump was willing to be impeached just to undermine Biden, people on this very forum scoffed at me. I just what to mention that.

….oh brother.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

I predicted that Democrats wouldn't be able to sell an acquittal outcome.

Did you make that prediction before or after Midnight Mitch publicly announced that he’d do all he could to acquit Trump?