All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[SquirrelMan]

And his approval rating is higher than ever and his odd of winning re-election have increased. These are the results of having an education system ranked 27th in the world.

We all like to make fun of Rasmussen, but oddly their poll is not showing the swing towards Trump that his other disapproval measures are showing. He is actually doing WORSE there:



One explanation is that Rasmussen heavily oversamples Republicans, and the improvements he's seen are mostly with Democrats - who at the same time are still saying they'll vote for Biden over him, though.

[SquirrelMan]

AOC breaks with Bernie on how to lead the left

The congresswoman is declining to back primary challengers following in her footsteps — and working within the system in Congress.

It's almost tragic that Sanders' entire legacy is going to be the Trump presidency.

[Mister Mets]

The holy rollers are the most dangerous. They foolishly believe their imaginary sky dude will protect them from all evil, including COVID-19. Well, coronavirus is like the Honey Badger, it don't give a **** what deity you believe in, it'll get into you and kill you, even worse, these idiots will pass the virus along to family, friends, anyone they come in contact with and the whole thing will blow sky high. Maddening.

I'm curious if they think martyrs deserved to die, if God keeps the righteous wealthy and healthy.

[Mister Mets]

We all like to make fun of Rasmussen, but oddly their poll is not showing the swing towards Trump that his other disapproval measures are showing. He is actually doing WORSE there:



One explanation is that Rasmussen heavily oversamples Republicans, and the improvements he's seen are mostly with Democrats - who at the same time are still saying they'll vote for Biden over him, though.

There was one argument that Trump's approval rating in some polls might reflect people who don't plan to vote signalling that there should be national unity right now (which Trump is probably pissing away picking fights with the Governor of Michigan, and others.)

There have been some general election polls that were relatively strong for Trump.

An ABC poll on Sunday showed Trump down two to Biden 47-49. If that were the general election numbers, he would have a strong shot at winning the electoral college.


As a side note- Trump's behavior with Florida is probably one of the best arguments for abandoning the electoral college. I'd expect to see that get more play.

[Kirby101]

But he seems to be doing everything he can to lose Michigan. With Biden, he can't win PA. So his electoral win gets very narrow.
In FL if the corrupt Governor fails in suppressing the vote of those who were in prison, (and God knows he is trying to stop people from their right to vote) then FL is up for grabs.

[Mister Mets]

But he seems to be doing everything he can to lose Michigan. With Biden, he can't win PA. So his electoral win gets very narrow.
In FL if the corrupt Governor fails in suppressing the vote of those who were in prison, (and God knows he is trying to stop people from their right to vote) then FL is up for grabs.

If Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, he wins the electoral college 270-268.

If he loses just those states and Maine's second congressional district, the electoral college is a tie. That actually favors Republicans since the outcome of a tie is determined by fifty members of congress selected by their state's congressional delegations, and Republicans have a narrow lead there.

It's certainly possible Trump will lose.

But there are some legal ways to win which will lead to a lot of protest.

I would also imagine that if he's down by two in the popular vote, he has a very good chance at keeping most of the states he lost last time.

[Tami]

Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device

An Australian astrophysicist has been admitted to hospital after getting four magnets stuck up his nose in an attempt to invent a device that stops people touching their faces during the coronavirus outbreak.

Dr Daniel Reardon, a research fellow at a Melbourne university, was building a necklace that sounds an alarm on facial contact, when the mishap occurred on Thursday night.

The 27 year-old astrophysicist, who studies pulsars and gravitational waves, said he was trying to liven up the boredom of self-isolation with the four powerful neodymium magnets.

“I had a part that detects magnetic fields. I thought that if I built a circuit that could detect the magnetic field, and we wore magnets on our wrists, then it could set off an alarm if you brought it too close to your face. A bit of boredom in isolation made me think of that.”

However, the academic realised the electronic part he had did the opposite – and would only complete a circuit when there was no magnetic field present.

“I accidentally invented a necklace that buzzes continuously unless you move your hand close to your face,” he said.

“After scrapping that idea, I was still a bit bored, playing with the magnets. It’s the same logic as clipping pegs to your ears – I clipped them to my earlobes and then clipped them to my nostril and things went downhill pretty quickly when I clipped the magnets to my other nostril.”

Reardon said he placed two magnets inside his nostrils, and two on the outside. When he removed the magnets from the outside of his nose, the two inside stuck together. Unfortunately, the researcher then attempted to use his remaining magnets to remove them.

“At this point, my partner who works at a hospital was laughing at me,” he said. “I was trying to pull them out but there is a ridge at the bottom of my nose you can’t get past.

“After struggling for 20 minutes, I decided to Google the problem and found an article about an 11-year-old boy who had the same problem. The solution in that was more magnets. To put on the outside to offset the pull from the ones inside.
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“As I was pulling downwards to try and remove the magnets, they clipped on to each other and I lost my grip. And those two magnets ended up in my left nostril while the other one was in my right. At this point I ran out of magnets.”

Before attending the hospital, Reardon attempted to use pliers to pull them out, but they became magnetised by the magnets inside his nose.

[TheDarman]

Despite déjâ vu from 2016, some Democrats are hopeful that Sanders staying in the race will still yield better results than last time.

It is their personal dynamic — they are two men of similar ages who both served in Congress and who associates said genuinely hold each other in high regard — that gives some Democrats hope for averting the ugliness of 2016.
“I sense that there is a personal respect that he has for Joe Biden that he did not extend to Hillary in 2016, so I assume that that will extend some guard rails,” said Brian Fallon, who worked as press secretary for Clinton’s campaign. The bigger challenge, Fallon said, will be reining in Sanders supporters while their candidate extends his presence in the race.

[TheDarman]

If Trump loses Pennsylvania and Michigan, he wins the electoral college 270-268.

If he loses just those states and Maine's second congressional district, the electoral college is a tie. That actually favors Republicans since the outcome of a tie is determined by fifty members of congress selected by their state's congressional delegations, and Republicans have a narrow lead there.

It's certainly possible Trump will lose.

But there are some legal ways to win which will lead to a lot of protest.

I would also imagine that if he's down by two in the popular vote, he has a very good chance at keeping most of the states he lost last time.

Biden leads in Arizona as of right now as well as in North Carolina so it might be a more unusual coalition that secures Biden’s victory than initially thought.

[Mister Mets]

Biden leads in Arizona as of right now as well as in North Carolina so it might be a more unusual coalition that secures Biden’s victory than initially thought.

I suspect that if Trump loses the popular vote by two percent, he'll win Arizona and North Carolina.

Biden may very win those states, but it would likely be with a bigger popular vote win (unless he picks Kristen Sinema as his running mate; that might be worth a few points in Arizona.)

[Kirby101]

I think he will lose the popular vote by a wider margin than last time.
The EC is still up for grabs.

[SquirrelMan]

I won't make a single EC prediction until I know who Biden's Veep is gonna be.

Also, Evangelicals may have all killed each other with Coronavirus by the time the elections come around...

[TheDarman]

I suspect that if Trump loses the popular vote by two percent, he'll win Arizona and North Carolina.

Biden may very win those states, but it would likely be with a bigger popular vote win (unless he picks Kristen Sinema as his running mate; that might be worth a few points in Arizona.)

I think Biden can leverage his friendship with John McCain—and Donald Trump’s treatment of him—into gains in Arizona. The reason Sinema won in Arizona is because of the deepening dislike for Trump there, hence why it shows Biden winning the state by an average of seven points right now. Kelly is also looking likely to beat the Trump-favored candidate there as well.

And, anyway, we’re talking about one poll. Other polls are showing Biden with much larger margins of victory, both nationwide and locally in swing districts. We should probably be more concerned about polling averages than a single poll. I think Wisconsin and Florida are the bigger question marks at this point. Even Iowa is showing Biden with sizable leads.

Basically, if the election were held today (without a formal Obama endorsement, a VP candidate, and with a polling bump for Trump in the middle of a crisis), Biden would take Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Trump might get Florida and Wisconsin. He’d probably take Ohio. These are about as favorable as conditions can be expected to get for Trump.

[Maine Starfish]

I won't make a single EC prediction until I know who Biden's Veep is gonna be.

Also, Evangelicals may have all killed each other with Coronavirus by the time the elections come around...

I don’t think VPs make that much of a difference.

[SquirrelMan]

I don’t think VPs make that much of a difference.

We have never had candidates this old, Fishie.