All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[ed2962]

I’m hoping he picks Harris. She has name recognition, she’s a minority (having a woman who is black and Indian one step away from the presidency would be very exciting), she’s for universal healthcare which could help bring in more left leaning voters, and her time as District Attorney could help sway more right leaning voters. As she’s a former prosecutor I would LOVE to see her dismantle Trump and Pence.

Just strictly on a strategic populist level, it shouldn't be her. Minorities don't like her and progressives don't like her. Biden will actually lose the good will he has with those demographics.

[TheDarman]

Just strictly on a strategic populist level, it shouldn't be her. Minorities don't like her and progressives don't like her. Biden will actually lose the good will he has with those demographics.

Aside from Bernie and AOC, who do progressives like? They seem to have completely turned on Warren. So that leaves...who? I also disagree with the assessment that she is uniformly unpopular. One of the biggest assets for Biden that she does have is the ability to communicate pretty darn well.

[TriggerWarning]

Well here's a question for you- it's widely surmised that Biden will pick a female running mate. Do you think he'd pick AOC, who could check a lot of boxes- young, female, intelligent, and holds many of the same positions that Bernie does? Or would the risk of picking someone in the Senate- which could possibly allow the Republicans to maintain control- be too great?

She isn't eligible but appointing All Out Crazy as your VP would be a disaster. It would help him win extreme blue states like California by more votes than he already is going to win by but it would absolutely cost him swing states. As much as progressives might love her the middle and the right views her a kook, thus her nickname of All Out Crazy. You think people mocked Sarah Palin as a VP pick, that would be nothing next to what would happen with All Out Crazy. Palin is what drove me to vote Obama instead of McCain as I didn't want her to be second in line to a president with health problems. Biden has shown signs of mental deterioration so its going to be very important for him to pick someone for VP that the country feels comfortable with taking over should he die or decline to the point he can't serve as president anymore and AOC is the exact opposite of that. So thankfully she isn't eligible.

[TriggerWarning]

Aside from Bernie and AOC, who do progressives like? They seem to have completely turned on Warren. So that leaves...who? I also disagree with the assessment that she is uniformly unpopular. One of the biggest assets for Biden that she does have is the ability to communicate pretty darn well.

I'll leave this here about AOC. Nate Silver at 538 basically said that the Squad as they are known are general election liabilities because once you get out of the progressive echo chambers they are viewed extremely unfavorably by the center and right. Before you poo poo the idea keep in mind that Silver and 538 were the ONLY pollsters to give Trump a chance in 2016 as they had him him at roughly a 33% chance of winning the election whereas every other pollster had him less than 1%. They predicted a model that Trump could win with if things broke just right and that is exactly how it ended up for Trump. They know what they are doing and are obviously by 2016 results the best at it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-help-sanders/

5. “The Squad” is a potential general election liability. A July poll by YouGov found all four members of “The Squad” with negative net favorability ratings among adults nationwide: -17 percentage points for Omar, -16 for Tlaib, -14 for Ocasio-Cortez and -11 for Pressley, although they remain relatively unknown to many voters. (I’d love to cite a wider sample of polls, but I can’t find many others that asked about Omar, Tlaib or Pressley. A number of earlier polls on Ocasio-Cortez found her with negative ratings, however.)

[TheDarman]

I'll leave this here about AOC. Nate Silver at 538 basically said that the Squad as they are known are general election liabilities because once you get out of the progressive echo chambers they are viewed extremely unfavorably by the center and right. Before you poo poo the idea keep in mind that Silver and 538 were the ONLY pollsters to give Trump a chance in 2016 as they had him him at roughly a 33% chance of winning the election whereas every other pollster had him less than 1%. They predicted a model that Trump could win with if things broke just right and that is exactly how it ended up for Trump. They know what they are doing and are obviously by 2016 results the best at it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-help-sanders/

Oh. I agree and I love 538. I think a lot of people miscolor his commentary and polling as sure things. They aren't. There are statistical probabilities. A 33% chance still means that 33 out of a 100 times, that outcome will happen. It may mean we would prefer to live in the reality where one of the 66 out of 100 simulations was correct, but those are data and probabilities for you.

I was discussing the popularity of a candidate like Harris actually.

[williamtheday]

Bernie and AOC just want the 75 % tax rate for billionares, which was what it was in the 50's, right?

[ed2962]

Aside from Bernie and AOC, who do progressives like? They seem to have completely turned on Warren. So that leaves...who? I also disagree with the assessment that she is uniformly unpopular. One of the biggest assets for Biden that she does have is the ability to communicate pretty darn well.

Up until a month ago I would have said Warren. I kinda feel that's why she hasn't endorsed anyone yet...she's trying to leave her options open. But it won't be Harris and it won't be Mayor Pete. More than likely, it'll be someone "progressive leaning" but doesn't have the national stage yet.

[TheDarman]

Bernie and AOC just want the 75 % tax rate for billionares, which was what it was in the 50's, right?

No. They have their sights set considerably lower. In the 50s, it was a marginal tax rate in the 90s! This actually encouraged CEOs and the like to invest their money back into their companies, and thus their workers, because any money that went to corporate officers was ultimately going to go to taxes anyway. At that point, it became the calculus of job security. Now, they get to keep over half of what they make above $250,000 which gives them opportunity to liquidate and expand their wealth. On a system that caters to self-centeredness, we shouldn't be surprised to see that they aren't investing as much into their companies when they can keep it for themselves.

But that isn't all they want or it wouldn't be that much of a campaign. Tax rates can pass as fiscal measures in the Senate with a simple majority. Bernie Sanders' tax policy was always going to be one of the easier things for him to pass if he got into office. The issue is that his health care plan would likely be dead on arrival. His climate change policy would probably need a rework to get moderate Democrats to come on board. That would mean reducing the elements about economic justice in there in favor of doing what is actually necessary, scientifically, to slow down the rapid change of worldwide temperatures. Sanders has never seemed too focused on any social justice plan or narrative--which worked fine when white, male liberals are his main base of support--but those would likely be the plans he pushed for last.

Up until a month ago I would have said Warren. I kinda feel that's why she hasn't endorsed anyone yet...she's trying to leave her options open. But it won't be Harris and it won't be Mayor Pete. More than likely, it'll be someone "progressive leaning" but doesn't have the national stage yet.

I don't know. If Harris isn't Biden's VP, I would be willing to bet dollars to donuts she ends up being his Attorney General. Still, I think Biden is more concerned about getting someone who can be a good communicator for him to build up his platform. This hasn't ever been Biden's strength and having a VP that can be his number one surrogate is important. Sure, I think it'll help to pick someone who had more left-leaning policies than him, but I don't think that is his primary goal. I think it is in descending order of importance like this:

1) Someone who can be a good communicator
2) Someone who won't weaken the legislative branch if they have to vacate their seat - Warren would with a Republican governor selecting the temporary seat holder
3) Someone who can appeal broadly to the American people Biden wants to run up his margins with (these would include black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters)
4) Someone who is more progressive than him

[PaulBullion]

The guy has been running for President for almost five years and couldn’t beat the guy with “mental illness” as claimed by Sanders surrogates and Trump folks. If Sanders was still this weak after a few moderates endorsed a fellow moderate (only after the largest win of the primary up to that point in South Carolina), then it wasn’t “rigged” against him. He just wasn’t strong enough to win in a non-crowded field to begin with.

Biden proved that you can win primaries while keeping money out of politics.

[ed2962]

No. They have their sights set considerably lower. In the 50s, it was a marginal tax rate in the 90s! This actually encouraged CEOs and the like to invest their money back into their companies, and thus their workers, because any money that went to corporate officers was ultimately going to go to taxes anyway. At that point, it became the calculus of job security. Now, they get to keep over half of what they make above $250,000 which gives them opportunity to liquidate and expand their wealth. On a system that caters to self-centeredness, we shouldn't be surprised to see that they aren't investing as much into their companies when they can keep it for themselves.

But that isn't all they want or it wouldn't be that much of a campaign. Tax rates can pass as fiscal measures in the Senate with a simple majority. Bernie Sanders' tax policy was always going to be one of the easier things for him to pass if he got into office. The issue is that his health care plan would likely be dead on arrival. His climate change policy would probably need a rework to get moderate Democrats to come on board. That would mean reducing the elements about economic justice in there in favor of doing what is actually necessary, scientifically, to slow down the rapid change of worldwide temperatures. Sanders has never seemed too focused on any social justice plan or narrative--which worked fine when white, male liberals are his main base of support--but those would likely be the plans he pushed for last.



I don't know. If Harris isn't Biden's VP, I would be willing to bet dollars to donuts she ends up being his Attorney General. Still, I think Biden is more concerned about getting someone who can be a good communicator for him to build up his platform. This hasn't ever been Biden's strength and having a VP that can be his number one surrogate is important. Sure, I think it'll help to pick someone who had more left-leaning policies than him, but I don't think that is his primary goal. I think it is in descending order of importance like this:

1) Someone who can be a good communicator
2) Someone who won't weaken the legislative branch if they have to vacate their seat - Warren would with a Republican governor selecting the temporary seat holder
3) Someone who can appeal broadly to the American people Biden wants to run up his margins with (these would include black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters)
4) Someone who is more progressive than him

Harris definitely isn't that person though

[PaulBullion]

Black voters over 60 years old in Mississippi (aka the powerful DNC Establishment) are virtually unanimous via CNN exit polls:

Biden 96% (!)
Sanders 3%
Others 1%

[PaulBullion]

In Senate polling, it's looking more and more like centrist astronaut Democrat Mark Kelly is going to flip Martha McSally's unelected seat blue.

[PwrdOn]

Harris definitely isn't that person though

If the DNC is dead set on a black woman they are probably better off with Stacey Abrams than Harris, but I'm guessing they'd prefer someone from a swing state since they aren't going to be contesting the deep south in the general so Abrams isn't much help there.

edit - A quick wiki search revealed that Abrams was actually born in Wisconsin, so if she finds a way to play up that connection she may be in play for the VP nom after all....

[PaulBullion]

Congrats to Joe Biden on his wins tonight. Older black voters showed up for him, in large part due to his connection with Obama. Damn he benefited from that. Bernie has a chance to come back, but Sunday will be key, and his ability to challenge Joe, without calling him "My Friend..." really wish he'd stop that. :P

Win or lose, I'm Bernie til the end.

Democrats this fall win or Lose, Sanders or Biden. I'm still done with the party.
I'm a perma Indie. No more switching back to vote Democrat.

You might be the only real black person I ever watched #walkaway.

The others were all stock photos.

[ed2962]

One of the guest though suggests that Biden is addressing both racial and econonic issues and that's why he's more appealing to black voters and I disagree. Biden's mostly been running on " I can beat Trump."

Also, look at the comments section. You'll get an interesting look at what the black folks ( most of which at probably 30+) who watch Roland's show think.