All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Farealmer]

One thing about November. Just keeping his base, which the media seems obsessed about, will not win Trump the election. You can't win with 40% of the vote.

Depends on how much of the swing states those 40% are in.

[Kirby101]

Depends on how much of the swing states those 40% are in.

Not enough. He won the States he needed with swing voters, not his rabid fan base. They are mostly concentrated in Deep Red States. There was also a big enough junk of third party voters that would have given Hillary the win in WI and MI.

It is close in WI, MI, PA and FL, but Trump needs them all to win.

[Mister Mets]

Not enough. He won the States he needed with swing voters, not his rabid fan base. They are mostly concentrated in Deep Red States. There was also a big enough junk of third party voters that would have given Hillary the win in WI and MI.

It is close in WI, MI, PA and FL, but Trump needs them all to win.

He could lose one or two.

If he loses Florida, he's at 277 electoral votes.

If he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he's at 270 electoral votes.

If he loses both states and Maine's second congressional district, it's an electoral college tie, which is decided by the House of Representatives in a way that favors Republicans (each state gets on vote; Republicans have a slight majority of congressional delegations.)

[Gray Lensman]

Not only are they currently under the SALT cap, but even if they exceed it, their overall taxes are likely to be lower than otherwise because of the other elements of the 2018 tax reform.

If the Republican party is to be judged about whether I'm correct about SALT deductions, I'm comfortable with that.

The initial comment was "That cut raised taxes here. I'd love to give it back."

I said "It only raised taxes for people who deduct more than $10,000 in state and local taxes, who tend to be wealthy." I didn't say that everyone whose taxes went up was wealthy, but it is accurate to say that a deduction on state and local taxes collected above $10,000 will be biased towards getting money from the wealthy.

To be clear, I did understate the value of the tax cut, as even people who exceed the cap can still be spending less on taxes due to the overall benefits.

You describe the SALT deduction as "a tax break for Blue State middle class" so the goal post here is how the blue state middle class (those earning between $40,425 and $120,672 in 2016) is affected.

I try to be careful with what I say. When I wrote "the main effect is that some wealthy people tend to have their taxes go up" that does allow for the possibility that some middle class people are going to take a hit. I don't deny that, although it would seem like special cases; like people with fixed incomes and expensive houses. I do certainly disagree with the idea that owning a $500,000 house in Long Island is working class.

I get why Democrats are upset about this particular tax. It makes it more expensive to be a high-earner in areas with high taxes, which tend to be blue states and liberal cities (although this isn't always the case) and very few politicians want high-earners to move away. But to suggest that one's main interest in wanting to remove the cap on the deduction is about protecting the middle class suggests either ignorance about current public policy, or a willingness to lie.

A quick jaunt onto a NY state tax calculator would put someone with a $6000 property tax bill over the SALT cap with only $85K of annual income, presuming a married couple with no children. While the people I know who live (or lived - the best friend moved to South Carolina a month before COVID-19 started really ramping up) in New York are just under the cap, it's not by very much and could easily slip by it in a couple of years behind the increasing of both the property tax percentage, and the backdoor increase of the county valuing your home well above market value - while you can contest, currently in those jurisdictions it's about as likely as getting your stuff back from civil forfeiture since the localities need the money. And to be honest, how long will they be ahead from Trump's so called middle class tax cuts considering that for all but the wealthiest they will fade away in a few years for most people (This isn't news as it was called out by most news articles when the tax bill was passed). My federal tax bill will be higher than it would have been when I file next year due to the income hit from COVID-19 (I'm still working but at much reduced hours) and the tax increases are hitting the lowest brackets first.

[Username taken]

Meanwhile, there’s a racist backlash against Africans in China.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/c...ntl/index.html

It’s so bad that African countries that are traditionally very careful about this stuff have come out publicly to attack the Chinese government for this nonsense.

While the private organizations are one thing, the Chinese government allowing this to happen is another. This is the same government that lashed out at the “racism” it’s people were facing outside because of the virus outbreak.

Honestly, between corruptly re-opening the wet markets that have in the past led to fatal visual outbreaks, covering up the outbreak of covid-19, silencing those that knew about it and now this, the Chinese government deserves a whole lot of criticism.

[TheDarman]

He could lose one or two.

If he loses Florida, he's at 277 electoral votes.

If he loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he's at 270 electoral votes.

If he loses both states and Maine's second congressional district, it's an electoral college tie, which is decided by the House of Representatives in a way that favors Republicans (each state gets on vote; Republicans have a slight majority of congressional delegations.)

Based on RealClearPolitics, as of today, Trump is behind Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota, and Ohio. The only swing state that Trump would take would be Iowa. With a victory in those other states, Biden would win the electoral college, assuming nothing else changes (Colorado, California, and New York are pretty safe blue bets, just like Georgia and Texas are safe red bets), 351-186.

Obviously, things can change a lot between now and November. But there are good reasons to believe Trump’s position could deteriorate. For one thing, we haven’t begun to litigate how terrible a job that Trump has done handling this crisis. We also aren’t on the other side of this crisis yet, which will show us an economy weaker than it was before the shutdown. And, through no fault of Trump’s own (on this front only—the causes are still on him), things are unlikely to improve a whole lot until after a vaccine has been developed. Trump’s best argument in his favor was the strength of the economy and now it has been ravaged by a public health crisis that he wasn’t prepared for.

Things can go south for Biden too. However, Joe Biden doesn’t have an email server issue that can result in new investigations into the problem. Indeed, the Tara Reade thing seems pretty weak and nothing that people haven’t already set aside for worse when it comes to Trump. There can be surprises, to be sure, but it seems like Biden’s issues have long been litigated.

[Kevinroc]

Based on RealClearPolitics, as of today, Trump is behind Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota, and Ohio. The only swing state that Trump would take would be Iowa. With a victory in those other states, Biden would win the electoral college, assuming nothing else changes (Colorado, California, and New York are pretty safe blue bets, just like Georgia and Texas are safe red bets), 351-186.

Obviously, things can change a lot between now and November. But there are good reasons to believe Trump’s position could deteriorate. For one thing, we haven’t begun to litigate how terrible a job that Trump has done handling this crisis. We also aren’t on the other side of this crisis yet, which will show us an economy weaker than it was before the shutdown. And, through no fault of Trump’s own (on this front only—the causes are still on him), things are unlikely to improve a whole lot until after a vaccine has been developed. Trump’s best argument in his favor was the strength of the economy and now it has been ravaged by a public health crisis that he wasn’t prepared for.

Things can go south for Biden too. However, Joe Biden doesn’t have an email server issue that can result in new investigations into the problem. Indeed, the Tara Reade thing seems pretty weak and nothing that people haven’t already set aside for worse when it comes to Trump. There can be surprises, to be sure, but it seems like Biden’s issues have long been litigated.

A public health crisis that Trump has repeatedly bungled.

[TheDarman]

A public health crisis that Trump has repeatedly bungled.

That’s also true. This is a crisis that he not only had no preparation for, largely because he was disassembling the apparatus designed to prepare us for this, but he also has repeatedly screwed up.

[Kevinroc]

Over 20,000 Americans have died because of how badly Trump has handled this.

Trump is the worst President America has ever had.

[Darkspellmaster]

Over 20,000 Americans have died because of how badly Trump has handled this.

Trump is the worst President America has ever had.

Just wait, if it's TRUE about A second wave coming, then we could hit higher numbers.

[Jack Dracula]

Over 20,000 Americans have died because of how badly Trump has handled this.

Trump is the worst President America has ever had.

He's definitely in the bottom five.

[Gray Lensman]

He's definitely in the bottom five.

His only competition now is Buchanan and Pierce. The exact order of the three likely depends on whether you blame Buchanan or Pierce more for the Civil War.

[Kusanagi]

Yeah I reserved calling Trump the worst, because he hadn't started a war or anything, but after this disaster he's comfortably leap frogged W as the worst in my lifetime.

[Kirby101]

Worst is a judgement call, but no doubt the worst human to sit in the Oval Office.

[Tami]

Yeah I reserved calling Trump the worst, because he hadn't started a war or anything, but after this disaster he's comfortably leap frogged W as the worst in my lifetime.

Trump did say he was a Wartime President. He may not have started it, but he is definitely making it worse.