All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[BeastieRunner]

Biden has something very powerful behind him, support. I think he'll do alright.

I would have rather it been Warren, but Biden will do well for the country.

Yes, anybody is better than 45 but I'm tired of good enough.

I will not in-fight and waste my time with the Bernie Bros bashing Warren. That's got to stop.

I will canvas for whomever the DNC picks. My primary isn't till next week but it already decided, which sucks.

[TheDarman]

So, let’s do some data breakdowns!

No one really thought Biden stood a chance in capturing anything outside of the southeast. A good performance in South Carolina arguably made his strength there obvious. But Biden, against all odds, secured Massachusetts, Maine, Oklahoma, and Minnesota. I know there are a number of Bernie Sanders folks decrying Warren for staying in the left lane. But the moderate lane wasn’t consolidated either, with early votes contributing to Klobauchar and Buttigieg as well as Bloomberg. So, even without Warren AND taking the dubious assumption that ALL Warren votes would go for Sanders, and given Bloomberg has dropped out, what would the performances in these Bernie-friendly states have looked like Mano-a-Mano?

Massachusetts
Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobauchar - 49.6%
Sanders + Warren - 47.8%

Maine
Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobauchar - 49.6%
Sanders + Warren - 48.7%

Minnesota
Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobauchar - 53.5%
Sanders + Warren - 45.3%

Oklahoma
Biden + Bloomberg + Buttigieg + Klobauchar - 56.5%
Sanders + Warren - 38.8%

Now, I know the ideas are dubious—that every single vote that went for a candidate would definitely go for the closest candidate ideologically rather than the more complicated reality of running a campaign and how candidates are perceived—but I would say that it is no more dubious than anticipating a huge windfall for Bernie in the event Warren were to drop out. And there seems to be considerable evidence that Klobauchar and Buttigieg’s voters broke for Biden once they dropped out and endorsed. We shouldn’t be sure the same would happen in Warren’s case, even if she endorsed Bernie while dropping out. But, even ignoring all of those, the point stands that Biden’s consolidation of the “moderate” wing would be more powerful than Bernie consolidating all the left-wing votes.

[Tazirai]

As a Bernie supporter I gotta admit last night was rough. Centrists and moderates were able to do something Progressives and Republicans didn't do. The consolidated by Obama, and some of the centrists getting the two to drop out and immediately endorse Biden, getting beto, and such was masterful.
They did a great Job, I mean Biden stans and other types of Lads and Lasses joined up with the moderates. Biden won states he didn't even campaign in.
Biden is like bad comfort food. It makes you feel good when you eat it, but leaves you hollow ultimately.

The good thing is Bernie won Cali, and is keeping him in the race. Joe Biden was always gonna win in the south. But Clyburns endorsement helped a ton.

So great job centrists, y'all had a good night. It's gonna make me campaign harder for Bernie, and I hope Warren doesn't remain in the game much longer, she really hurt Bernie last night, her and yang.

BUT also, Bernies team got very complacent. He went easy on Biden, and that hurt him. He needs to chill on the "My Good friend" talk. He needs to attack, HARD. The media hates us, but they love giving Biden that free advertisement because they know under him
NOTHING will change. The People will still be hurt, and Trump will be gone, but Incrementalism will get us another, and worse Trump, make no mistake.

But there's a long way to go, and now Biden and Bernie get to go head to head on the stage with no diversions, and Bidens weaknesses will be for all to see.
But Bernie needs to attack, he can't be the only one agreesing to not attack, while being attacked by liars and Centrists, and moderates with terrible Agendas.

If Biden turns out to get the nom. I'll hold my nose. But I will not donate, canvass, phone bank, text bank, or anything. I'll show up scratch the box and go home. That's it.

Also, please stop with the Bernie Bros ****. It's old and tired, and you're lying when you use it to attack people. That's what's going to turn us away from your guy.
I might vote, but others will not. But go ahead keep up the lying.

[TheDarman]

As a Bernie supporter I gotta admit last night was rough. Centrists and moderates were able to do something Progressives and Republicans didn't do. The consolidated by Obama, and some of the centrists getting the two to drop out and immediately endorse Biden, getting beto, and such was masterful.
They did a great Job, I mean Biden stans and other types of Lads and Lasses joined up with the moderates. Biden won states he didn't even campaign in.
Biden is like bad comfort food. It makes you feel good when you eat it, but leaves you hollow ultimately.

The good thing is Bernie won Cali, and is keeping him in the race. Joe Biden was always gonna win in the south. But Clyburns endorsement helped a ton.

So great job centrists, y'all had a good night. It's gonna make me campaign harder for Bernie, and I hope Warren doesn't remain in the game much longer, she really hurt Bernie last night, her and yang.

BUT also, Bernies team got very complacent. He went easy on Biden, and that hurt him. He needs to chill on the "My Good friend" talk. He needs to attack, HARD. The media hates us, but they love giving Biden that free advertisement because they know under him
NOTHING will change. The People will still be hurt, and Trump will be gone, but Incrementalism will get us another, and worse Trump, make no mistake.

But there's a long way to go, and now Biden and Bernie get to go head to head on the stage with no diversions, and Bidens weaknesses will be for all to see.
But Bernie needs to attack, he can't be the only one agreesing to not attack, while being attacked by liars and Centrists, and moderates with terrible Agendas.

If Biden turns out to get the nom. I'll hold my nose. But I will not donate, canvass, phone bank, text bank, or anything. I'll show up scratch the box and go home. That's it.

Also, please stop with the Bernie Bros ****. It's old and tired, and you're lying when you use it to attack people. That's what's going to turn us away from your guy.
I might vote, but others will not. But go ahead keep up the lying.

This idea that Sanders hasn’t ever been on the offensive is ridiculous. He actually needs to move to evaluating WHY Biden consolidated so much support from people of color. Sanders needs to use it to become a better, more inclusive candidate who doesn’t rely as much on white folks with and without degrees. If he can successfully pivot, recognize that he needs to change his strategy from “waa, waa, the establishment” all the time and provide substance to his platform and avoid going after the most popular Democratic politician in the party, Obama, while doing it, all the better. I just don’t know that is who he is.

But, good for him for making that effort:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status...899465216?s=21

[Theleviathan]

This idea that Sanders hasn’t ever been on the offensive is ridiculous. He actually needs to move to evaluating WHY Biden consolidated so much support from people of color. Sanders needs to use it to become a better, more inclusive candidate who doesn’t rely as much on white folks with and without degrees. If he can successfully pivot, recognize that he needs to change his strategy from “waa, waa, the establishment” all the time and provide substance to his platform and avoid going after the most popular Democratic politician in the party, Obama, while doing it, all the better. I just don’t know that is who he is.

But, good for him for making that effort:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status...899465216?s=21

Black voters simply don't trust Bernie. Right or wrong, that's how it is. Bernie's bet was always (he's said it himself) to turn out the young voters.

Well....they didn't show up. Period. Not some conspiracy about open primaries. Not about same day registration. They've known for the better part of 4 years that they could be ready to vote for Bernie. They....didn't....show.

And frankly, it's not that surprising. That's what the data has said historically forever. Had Bernie reversed that trend he'd have deserved the nomination. He couldn't. So he shouldn't.

[TheDarman]

Black voters simply don't trust Bernie. Right or wrong, that's how it is. Bernie's bet was always (he's said it himself) to turn out the young voters.

Well....they didn't show up. Period. Not some conspiracy about open primaries. Not about same day registration. They've known for the better part of 4 years that they could be ready to vote for Bernie. They....didn't....show.

And frankly, it's not that surprising. That's what the data has said historically forever. Had Bernie reversed that trend he'd have deserved the nomination. He couldn't. So he shouldn't.

Again, if I’ve seen him reduce black folks down to criminals and poor people who would benefit from his economic policies (as a white man), I can’t imagine how frustrating it is as a black person. To have Bernie answer “what are you gonna do for the black community?” with “I’m gonna do criminal justice reform and help the working class” I think strikes many as a real minimization of their actual lives experience. It’s good to say those things; it absolutely is. But his ideas have to be more comprehensive than that. They haven’t been.

For Bernie supporters, that’s what I would be focusing on and hoping it isn’t too late.

[Tazirai]

I wonder why the Democrats can't come together this fast on issues that I see matter like climate change actual good health care and things like that. They can come together really quick to help us interest but they can't come together to actually help the American people it's amazing.

[Tazirai]

Older black voters not younger. I'm a 45 year old black man and most of my group went sanders. Why? Because we don't believe the media and establishment bullshit. If you guys do, that's on you.
Older blacks even in my family have what I may not get, they are scared of change, and give Biden props because he was under Obama. That's it.

Bernie was fighting for me before I knew what a Bernie Sanders was. Thus was back when I liked Joe for the same reason older blacks like him now. My Facebook posts back then are full of me praising Biden without really digging to deep. Bernie opened my eyes.

Change takes time and the establishment will fight it, because like ancient Rome, distraction is a helluva drug.

[Theleviathan]

Again, if I’ve seen him reduce black folks down to criminals and poor people who would benefit from his economic policies (as a white man), I can’t imagine how frustrating it is as a black person. To have Bernie answer “what are you gonna do for the black community?” with “I’m gonna do criminal justice reform and help the working class” I think strikes many as a real minimization of their actual lives experience. It’s good to say those things; it absolutely is. But his ideas have to be more comprehensive than that. They haven’t been.

For Bernie supporters, that’s what I would be focusing on and hoping it isn’t too late.

I agree, sorry...in retrospect it sounded like I was disagreeing with you when I was actually adding to your point!

[TheDarman]

I wonder why the Democrats can't come together this fast on issues that I see matter like climate change actual good health care and things like that. They can come together really quick to help us interest but they can't come together to actually help the American people it's amazing.

It's largely because I think there are legitimate differences in approach. I sincerely think that moderates (at least moderates that I talk to on the daily, not the candidates, for whom I can only really assume their true intentions) really do care about providing quality and affordable health care and really do sincerely care about addressing climate change. Let's not forget that Obama's biggest executive actions and agreements during his last two years were designed to address climate change, from the international level to the domestic level. He also worked on addressing Iran's nuclear program without hitting them with missiles. These are the differences that we see between "moderate" Democrats, who legitimately do care, but may differ in approach to these issues, and Republicans, especially those like Trump. And we also need to acknowledge there is a difference between being socially progressive and economically progressive. I'm a person who views Sanders as very FDR-esque--willing to sacrifice everything necessary to accomplish economic goals that materially benefit people, even if it comes at the expense of helping white folks more. Meanwhile, folks like Obama staked a great deal of their progressive reputation on ensuring that transgender kids wouldn't be beaten up for going to a bathroom in a school. There is a reason historians even said in a survey that Obama was the third best president in American history regarding his record with social policy--beaten only by Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon B. Johnson (and arguably he did it better than Johnson, because he didn't have to be dragged kicking and screaming to these end points). I don't think we would get that with Sanders.

I agree, sorry...in retrospect it sounded like I was disagreeing with you when I was actually adding to your point!

Oh, no. I understood. I was further building my case upon your response. You're all good man.

[Kieran_Frost]

Actually footage of me checking the news on my phone when I woke up this morning...

[Kieran_Frost]

I kid, I kid! Genuinely, to all Bernie fans, today's tough, I get that. And no matter what happens, he did inspire and invigorate people who maybe felt a little disillusioned until now, and that should be acknowledged. But I couldn't resist that gif, because when it occurred to me, I chuckled so much, I wanted to spread a little joy on the odd chance someone else found it funny. Apologies if anyone is upset by it, it was truly meant as nothing more than banter and light relief humour.

Bernie is a non-viable candidate if he can't get black voter supporter. People like you telling black people they're too stupid to vote for him is a reflection of the core of why Bernie never appealed. Everyone who isn't a Bernie cultists sees that nasty underbelly and turns away.

I mean... pretty much, yeah.

And his only hope to win was to drive out thirty's precious unicorns - those young or disenfranchised voters yearning for the right person, at the right time, with the right conditions, so that they would maybe get out and vote. Well, shock of all shocks, that perfect storm didn't exist to the tune of tens of thousands....so he's simply not viable. You can cry about how great his policies are and all of that....but at the end of the day he never had a shot. Not in the primary and not in the general. The only question now is if Bernie has the integrity to hold to his own words just a week ago and concede. It's only a matter of time before the inevitable.

Innnnnnnteresing point, I hadn't thought of! Ohhhhh.

This race is over in terms of who will win the majority of the vote and the delegates from this point forward.

I don't think it's over, but I do think the tide has turned, and it's less likely to swing back again in time to stop Biden securing the nomination.

I would like for him to pick Mayor Pete but admittedly that is a longshot. But do go for a young VP, someone that can be groomed for future elections.

I would love to have an openly gay VP. And while Pete won't necessarily bring in specific states he need, Pete will provide a good team on the ticket. I think (at the very least) Biden's VP should be someone a) younger, and b) a minority (be they female, LGBT+ or non-caucasian). One of the things I liked so much about Obama/Biden was seeing a president and a VP really like each other. Truly like each other. And I want that again.

[TheDarman]

Older black voters not younger. I'm a 45 year old black man and most of my group went sanders. Why? Because we don't believe the media and establishment bullshit. If you guys do, that's on you.
Older blacks even in my family have what I may not get, they are scared of change, and give Biden props because he was under Obama. That's it.

Bernie was fighting for me before I knew what a Bernie Sanders was. Thus was back when I liked Joe for the same reason older blacks like him now. My Facebook posts back then are full of me praising Biden without really digging to deep. Bernie opened my eyes.

Change takes time and the establishment will fight it, because like ancient Rome, distraction is a helluva drug.

I still haven't seen a policy that Bernie Sanders has stated that he truly has to address racial inequity in the country other than providing economic aide to poorer folks and asking for criminal justice reform. I'm sorry, but that feels like a minimization of the lived experience of many black folks. Meanwhile, I think Biden stating, unequivocally, that he would start actively targeting right wing terrorism and focus on trying to reform voting laws and focus on trying to ensure that there is adequate justice under the law and so on and so forth has resonated well with people and doesn't see their status as either "poor" or "criminal".

However, if you don't see that that way, that is great. And, obviously, as a black man yourself, you have a lot more to say about it through that lens than I could ever hope to. I'm glad you found a candidate that you could appreciate.

[PwrdOn]

Again, if I’ve seen him reduce black folks down to criminals and poor people who would benefit from his economic policies (as a white man), I can’t imagine how frustrating it is as a black person. To have Bernie answer “what are you gonna do for the black community?” with “I’m gonna do criminal justice reform and help the working class” I think strikes many as a real minimization of their actual lives experience. It’s good to say those things; it absolutely is. But his ideas have to be more comprehensive than that. They haven’t been.

For Bernie supporters, that’s what I would be focusing on and hoping it isn’t too late.

Well it’s not like we don’t acknowledge the concerns of middle class black folks we just think they take lower priority than the needs of the working class. Like yeah it’s not great that you’re stuck at Junior VP because your boss is not-racist-but-ehhh-Bell-Curve, but let’s make sure that everyone below you had health care first, then we can work on getting you that promotion.

[Kieran_Frost]

How Elizabeth Warren destroyed Mike Bloomberg's campaign in 60 seconds

Replace Bloomberg with Trump, and this is what Warren could have done if given the chance. I'd have payed good money to see Elizabeth tear Trump apart. Looks like that isn't likely to happen.

Ohhhhh I would have loved that. And Pete vs Pence at the VP debate. *le sigh*. Dreams be dreams.

The Bernie cadre have been complaining about Warren, but in truth it coudl be turned around. If Bernie hadn't entered the race, Warren might have drawn more voters and done better herself.

True. And you could argue "he had his shot" last time. But I know it doesn't work like that.

I think she will have a cabinet position in a Biden Administration, probably Secretary of the Treasury. For Bernie, I’d say it is a toss-up between that and VP.

I think she'll get a cabinet position too. I don't see him picking her for VP; what job would you say she's best suited for? Secretary of Education?

I doubt Bernie is getting a role. After this, I expect him to retire.

Agreed on the first point, I seem to remember him saying he'll run as an Independent next time regardless (so I don't think he's retiring anytime soon)