All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Steel Inquisitor]

That’s like saying that there’s nothing Trump can say that will stop people who have made their mind up about the corruption in his administration.

Trump has no credibility to anyone who knows who he is, he could tell me the sky is blue and I'd check to make sure. Why is your first example for this, Trump, of all people?

The only reliable method to stop this from getting inflamed was for Sanders campaign to prevent it from escalating, now it's too late. The genie is out of the bottle and now the Democrats are more vulnerable for it.

Perez and the DNC may as well be Trump to them, that's how deep the hatred has become. All they're looking for is justifications for attacking the party, they're not interested in truth that defies their expectations.

Isn’t the flooding of the phone lines a conspiracy?

What are the facts?

[numberthirty]

While it's not the most pressing news, this was sort of mind-boggling to think over...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-d...pe-11581117565

After Devastating Fire, How Will the Vinyl Industry Cope?

[Michael Watkins]

Guy -- you really need to chill out and stop lying and intentionally trying to aggravate people.

I don't back Biden -- I'm just pointing out the obvious fact that if you don't give black voters a candidate to back in the general election, the Democratic party is most likely going to lose.

Sanders is who turned out to be a "loser" last time around -- mainly because he didn't "inspire" black voters -- yet Sanders' supporters refuse to even address that, for obvious reasons.

Just because you refuse to address those weaknesses -- and who the Democratic party really needs to win elections -- doesn't change the facts.

Again -- back off and stop lying on people and trying to start fights, or at the very least address the points raised in your response.

We disagree on black people being the deciding factor on why Sanders wasn’t the candidate of choice in 2016. The world was simply not ready for him. There was less consciousness about moderate vs progressive dems. There weren’t any AOCs or people stressing the need to get money out of politics. Clinton has name value. She could milk being the wife of the “first black president.” There was a period there where it made sense to elect the first female president. A lot of people were saying that it was Hillary’s time and that Obama had cut in line. Bernie wasn’t a household name yet. He was drowned out by the loud entitled voices of Clinton’s base. Anyways, I’m black. All of my cousins are black. I’m the least politically active of them. And we’re all supporting Sanders.

[Zauriel]

If FDR, JFK and LBJ saw the disunity and discord within the Democrat party, they would be rolling in their graves.

[Michael Watkins]

Trump has no credibility to anyone who knows who he is, he could tell me the sky is blue and I'd check to make sure. Why is your first example for this, Trump, of all people?

The only reliable method to stop this from getting inflamed was for Sanders campaign to prevent it from escalating, now it's too late. The genie is out of the bottle and now the Democrats are more vulnerable for it.

Perez and the DNC may as well be Trump to them, that's how deep the hatred has become. All they're looking for is justifications for attacking the party, they're not interested in truth that defies their expectations.



What are the facts?

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...ZBQYFiY-uA-il4

[Michael Watkins]

If FDR, JFK and LBJ saw the disunity and discord within the Democrat party, they would be rolling in their graves.

Based on a subsection of the internet?

[numberthirty]

If FDR, JFK and LBJ saw the disunity and discord within the Democrat party, they would be rolling in their graves.

Somehow, I doubt that it is the discord that FDR would have a problem with.

[The Overlord]

I am not a Mayor Pete supporter. Just presenting a theory on why Sanders did so much worse in Iowa than predicted before he embraced Rogan.

Your whataboutism, knee-jerk reaction are not effective debating.

Poorly? You know Mayor Pete and Bernie are pretty close in terms of results:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...anada-51366831

It's not like Mayor Pete won in a landslide.

Meanwhile Biden came in fourth, how is that for electability?

[Mister Mets]

Bernie did not do so much worse in Iowa. He won the popular vote by 1000s.

The reason he is tied with Pete is because Biden under performed and his voters went to Pete. In the 1st count Bernie and Warren were ahead of Pete.

So Pete was better as persuading voters who weren't already on his side?

When the primaries move to states that aren't predominantly white... either Biden or Warren are going to start winning states. Unless Buttigieg or Bernie start winning things like New Hampshire running away from the pack to make people believe they have "front-runner" status.

Nothing in the polling shows anybody is taking a state with a clear majority.

Sanders does outperform Warren among African-American primary voters, so there isn't much of an indication they would go her way in later primaries.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...-voters-084285

[Michael Watkins]

So Pete was better as persuading voters who weren't already on his side?

He was the alternative to Biden

[Tami]

Democratic Candidates Reject Trump’s Foreign Policy, but Don’t Agree on Theirs

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang say that if elected, they would continue President Trump’s personal diplomacy with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. But Joseph R. Biden Jr., Michael R. Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar would not: That approach has just propped up a dictator while his nuclear arsenal expands, Mr. Biden argues.

Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Tom Steyer say they might put conditions on American military aid to pressure Israel to stop building settlements in disputed territory, or to discourage annexation of the West Bank. But only Mr. Steyer says he would reverse Mr. Trump’s move of the American embassy to Jerusalem.

Only Mr. Biden and Mr. Bloomberg would consider using military force to protect the free shipment of oil supplies, which could escalate toward a military confrontation with Iran. But only Ms. Warren and Mr. Yang said they wouldn’t consider using force to stop North Korea or Iran from testing a nuclear weapon or missile, something that does not usually pose an immediate threat to American territory or troops.

[Mister Mets]

Well, you seem to cherry facts to fit your arguments:

We need a moderate to win the Swing States, the fact that Hillary and Kerry failed to do so? Tossed out as irrelevant.

Bernie is a loser for failing to defeat Hillary in the primary, the fact Biden lost horribly in 1988 primaries? Tossed out as irrelevant.

Polls that agree with you relevant, polls that disagree with you tossed out as irrelevant.

You only like facts that fit your narrative and will ignore or downplay ones that don't.

We should trust this only moderates can win Swing States theory, when it failed last time?

This doesn't actually demonstrate that progressive candidates will do better.

Is there any argument that Kerry should have won given the fundamentals of 2004 (George W Bush was a wartime President given a lot of credit for how he handled 9/11; Republicans had only held the White House for one term.)

Biden's main issues in the '88 and '08 primaries weren't due to a preference for other types of candidates.

From my vantage point, the strongest argument in favor of nominating moderate candidates is they're the types who swung the House back to the Democrats and won some major statewide elections.

You're talking about polling.

Polling said Biden was going to be first in Iowa until he was actually fourth, and suggested HRC had thing wrapped up tight back in 2016.

I am talking about actual wins. Factual results.

Again...

If you still want to give polling weight as something you can make predictions based on? Your call, and I guess I can kinda see the reasoning.

The idea that you put it on the opposite side of actual wins on a scale, and it comes out even?

It's not laughable, but it surely isn't easy to take it seriously.

The Iowa caucus is notoriously difficult to poll, because the vote at the beginning can change, but the later polls consistently showed Sanders in first place.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...731.html#polls

The bigger surprise was Mayor Pete.

[KOSLOX]

If FDR, JFK and LBJ saw the disunity and discord within the Democrat party, they would be rolling in their graves.

The south abandoned the Democratic Party pretty much forever thanks to LBJ signing the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts. I doubt he'd be shocked.

[Theleviathan]

Yes, pointing out the fact you cherry-pick arguments is trolling. I guess anything you don't like is trolling.

You constantly say you present factual results, but all you have done is present a theory that failed last time? Why will it work this time, what factual results do have that backs up this theory will work this time when it failed last time? I guess you never have to provide factual results to justify this theory eh? This theory is based more in assumptions than factual results.

If you want him to an argument that Bernie or Warren are a sure thing, I can't do that, but guess what, you have no factual results that say Biden or Buttigieg is a sure thing either. Ultimately I think Bernie or Warren could win and will try to change things for the better so we not fighting another wave of Trumpism in 4 years. I think if Biden or Buttigieg wins and they maintain the status quo, we will see more Trump clones challenge them because they will do nothing to challenge the ideology of Trumpism.

Do you think Trump is a demon from Hell that ruined a perfectly good system or the product of a broken system? Because if its the later, just getting rid of Trump will win a battle, but not a war.

If you do not take on Trumpism, all your supposed ''Factual results'' will not matter, the US will continue to decline and Trumpism will grow in opposition to Biden or Buttigieg.

Do you remember the campaign Trump ran? He made appeals to the working class, he coded them with racism and they turned out to lies, but he totally outmaneuvered Hillary in the campaign through these tactics, why wouldn't he do the same to Biden or Buttigieg. He captured the Rust Belt, which was supposed to be Hillary's Blue wall.

Here is a question, why is the American dream easier to achieve in Canada over the US at this point?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/busin...dex/index.html

What will Biden or Buttigueg do to address the wage gap? Because if they don't, you will be fighting Trumpism until someone does.

Listen, you never once took any of the things I said to heart and responded intellectually. So I wont indulge you in conversation until you do more than these little whatabout rants.

Every (EVERY) thought about winning 2020 is a theory for obvious reasons. You asked what Buttigieg and Bidens argument is. I answered. To support that you can look at these facts: no left wing politician has won the Presidency in a century. Bernie himself got his ass kicked in every key swing state except WI and Mi 2016. His current poll numbers struggle in those same states. 2018 candidates who won the House were almost entirely moderates, especially those in swing states.

Bernie has to find a lane to win in those key areas. In fact, that's exactly what his rural/urban thing was about. That was a (wise) general election strategy.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

What worries me is that Sanders supporters don't see through the game Republicans are playing.

You have some of the most right wing GOP clowns defending Sanders against the mean old DNC. They want Sanders as Trump's opponent so badly. Because they are sitting on attacks that will be VERY efficient in those swing states to turn people off Bernie. Attacks that his Democratic primary opponents won't touch because they have decency. But Sanders would be annihilated in the general elections. This is America, a nation of puritans. ´

The video of Bernie partying with Soviets in his underwear will be everywhere.

Data miners will target Hispanics with the Sierra Blanca Nuclear waste story, Blacks and LGBTQs with the Joe Rogan embrace story, Christians with stories about Sanders being Jewish. Not saying they won't try similar things with the other candidates, but it will be easiest with Sanders, because he just has too much baggage and he is too far removed from the American electorate's "gut feelings."

The irony of this was that we know for a fact (the receipts are there) that the Democrats and the DNC were dying for Trump to be the nominee because they thought he would be the easiest label and campaign against. The reality was, he was probably the one person that had such support that you could never really find that one thing that would keep him down for good and he was the one person they were incapable of beating. If it was Jeb Bush you would have ran against the Bush dynasty vs the more favorable Clinton dynasty, if it was Cruz you would have an unlikeable hard right conservative that even his own party can't stand, if it was Rubio you'd have a poor debater who melts in the limelight. etc. She likely wipes the floor with any of them in the midwest and it's game set match.

Likewise we've seen these arguments against Bernie before and he's still doing well. Those arguments just don't work with his support base, so he's going to have the same high floor no matter what and it's a matter of gaining momentum. Nobody else has that type of safety net.

Btw Biden has far more baggage. Bernie has whole debates where they just have him off defense, and he still polls well. Biden has been relatively treated with kid gloves since the primary started with most debates starting from the presumption that he is correct, and for some reason as each state's election gets closer, he starts to go down and all the donors that should be with him have an ear to the ground for an altnernative like Pete or Klobuchar. Once those attacks start actually happening and it's going to get dirty as ****.

I think some people here are going to be in for a moment of reckoning when all those videos of Biden with women and little girls looking uncomfortable as **** around him are played with dramatic music non stop, or him saying "you can't go to a 7/11 without a slight Indian accent", or him screaming about black men and black communities being irresponsible, or him praising Bush for the Iraq War.

That's coming and that's going to come hard and went it does he won't have faced anything close to that and he's going to have to go in the Midwest and defend all that **** to people who decided they wanted to flip from Obama to Trump out of dissatisfaction with the prior 8 years. And for Biden who actually hasn't done well in primarys and national elections unless he was campaigning with a guy whose coalition he likely will never replicate, that's another problem. As of right now, Biden's run for President 4 times, Bernie 2. Bernie won more states than Biden who hasn't won any yet

I mean two weeks ago the Joe Rogan story was an actual media story and you said it would hurt him and he's been surging throughout it and did well in Iowa mostly off the backs of minorities, Socialism is attacked every time he's on stage he defends it and then moves on and continues to perform well, him being a Jew isn't going to matter any more than any of the other nominees being Pro Choice because that's the real reason evangelicals are Republican. Hate to break it you, but that's the truth. The minute Biden, Pete, Klobuchar or Yang say anything about being Pro Choice is the same second all those hard line Evangelicals and Christians go for Trump. That's their issue.