All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[luprki]

Mayor Pete was the big winner in NH. He go’s into Bernie’s backyard and receivers the same amount of delegates.

[kidfresh512]

Diplomat ousted and slammed by Trump gets diplomacy award

Marie Yovanovitch was expected to accept the Trainor Award from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University in a ceremony Wednesday, making her first public appearance since testifying before Congress in the impeachment proceedings.

Past recipients have included former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo and former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Yovanovitch was a highly regarded career foreign service officer when Rudy Giuliani, serving as Trump's personal lawyer, led a campaign against her as he sought to push Ukrainian officials to help him in his reelection campaign.

Good for her. But expect the retribution tweets shortly.

[Theleviathan]

Do you follow politics? Bernie wasn’t even leading in NH until the last few weeks. It was never a given for him to win that. Warren was leading it in most polls from September to October. Then it was a tossup for Buttigieg, Biden and Sanders breaking in a few times until early January. Then Sanders didn’t take a consistent polling lead until a Jan 13-16 poll. Bernie surged in the last month to take that lead. Buttigieg had a lead and lost it. After he did it was a consistent Bernie #1, Buttigieg #2. So your assessment isn’t even correct by any evaluation of the data.

But let’s take your argument:

1. Sanders won
2. This NH primary had the highest turnout ever beating the 2008 record.
3. Sanders won the largest NH primary ever carrying the most independents of any of the candidates

And beyond that if you think Bernie has a weak “can he beat Trump” argument. Everyone else is in a worse position.

Why can Bernie beat Trump. He’s winning, he has the most independents and progressives, easily the most diverse coalition, still polls as one of the most popular politicians, he’s leading a crowded primary process right now, he pretty much consolidated the progressive wing in a way the moderates are still looking for an option.

So really, by all your metrics, Bernie does the best.

You didn't, at all, answer my question. This is one gigantic strawman again. Consolidating progressives is not enough to win the general. Even Bernie people have acknowledged that. The promise has been that Bernie will get people who don't normally vote, out to vote for him to make up the difference between Hillary's support and Obama's. It did not manifest in NH. How long in this process, without those people showing up, do we go before we can toss that theory out?

Just to shut your strawman up, pretend I'm 100% in agreement that Bernie is in "the best position" - it is UTTERLY IRRELEVANT to what I posted and the concern associated with it. Now, I'll ask again, when do these previously uncounted progressives and young people (energized by Bernie, probably by lightning from his fingers) show up? I'd like it in black and white so that you're either a) right and they showed up as expected or b) wrong and you can't pretend you didn't realize it was an issue.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

You didn't, at all, answer my question. This is one gigantic strawman again. Consolidating progressives is not enough to win the general. Even Bernie people have acknowledged that. The promise has been that Bernie will get people who don't normally vote, out to vote for him to make up the difference between Hillary's support and Obama's. It did not manifest in NH. How long in this process, without those people showing up, do we go before we can toss that theory out?

Just to shut your strawman up, pretend I'm 100% in agreement that Bernie is in "the best position" - it is UTTERLY IRRELEVANT to what I posted and the concern associated with it. Now, I'll ask again, when do these previously uncounted progressives and young people (energized by Bernie, probably by lightning from his fingers) show up? I'd like it in black and white so that you're either a) right and they showed up as expected or b) wrong and you can't pretend you didn't realize it was an issue.

That’s because you are too blind to see that your initial question is a strawman while you accuse others of strawmanning


Scenario: Sanders wins primary. Disagrees with your narrative. You pivot and set up a straw man saying “no the real argument is that Sanders main validity is drawing in progressives and independents so unless the numbers in this specific state support that, it’s a bad omen”. You created an argument to argue against in the face of success

That’s actually a textbook straw man. His validity is that he has the best ideas, has consistency, has a broad coalition especially with the youth that Dems desire to come out and he can succeed.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

My condolences

[AnakinFlair]

RE: The Roger Stone sentencing. Surprised there's not been much discussion on this. Once again this shows that Trump's lap dog A/G Bill Barr is more concerned with things that Trump tweets out while he's tweeting at 1:30 am then, I don't know, the increase in gun violence maybe? Or how about checking into Trump's history of ties to the mob?

The judge still may accept the recommendation that the prosecutors take from the predefined guidelines. I hope she does.

Oh, no. We need to have another 13 pages of bitching about Bernie. Who cares about anything else?

[Theleviathan]

That’s because you are too blind to see that your initial question is a strawman while you accuse others of strawmanning

Scenario: Sanders wins primary. Disagrees with your narrative. You pivot and set up a straw man saying “no the real argument is that Sanders main validity is drawing in progressives and independents so unless the numbers in this specific state support that, it’s a bad omen”. You created an argument to argue against in the face of success

That’s actually a textbook straw man. His validity is that he has the best ideas, has consistency, has a broad coalition especially with the youth that Dems desire to come out and he can succeed.

I didn't "create" an argument. I looked at exit polls for the trends people have told me will allow Bernie to win. What do you think "energy" is code for? Why do you think Bernie and his supporters talk about "young voters" and "independents" and celebrated Joe Rogan and other endorsements? Why they lambasted Clinton for some of those very same demographics in her loss.

Moderate candidates have argued they can pull conservative Democrats over and win swing states. There is evidence in the data from New Hampshire and Iowa this is possible. Not from Biden, but for Buttigieg. They have their own concerns. For example, we're about to go to Nevada with a higher latino population. And South Carolina with a much higher black population. If Buttigieg or Klobuchar can't pull some of that support, they can't win either. The difference is, I doubt you'd get anyone on this forum to disagree with that. It's only you Bernie types that can't walk back from the brink of insanity long enough to have a rational discussion, that relevant issues like this fail as a discussion.

Instead of discussing why those numbers aren't there yet, you just dumped a bunch of buzzwords because you don't want to address the question. Next time you don't want to answer a question...just don't. You look like a tool for this goofy attempt to dodge the problem. If you were the honest type and wanted to make an honest retort, you'd just say "Yeah, we need to see those numbers trend differently in future primaries, I'm not worried for now" Instead....this clown car of text you managed. Yeesh.

[Tami]

Mark your calendars

NEWS: Bill BARR has *accepted* a House Judiciary Committee request to testify on March 31.

It's his first appearance before the panel since his confirmation and comes amid burning questions about his role in Ukraine matters and the Stone sentencing.

More details to come.

Twitter Link

[Tami]

BREAKING: Judge Amy Berman Jackson has *denied* a sealed motion by STONE for a new trial.

Twitter Link

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I didn't "create" an argument. I looked at exit polls for the trends people have told me will allow Bernie to win. What do you think "energy" is code for? Why do you think Bernie and his supporters talk about "young voters" and "independents" and celebrated Joe Rogan and other endorsements? Why they lambasted Clinton for some of those very same demographics in her loss.

You just dumped a bunch of buzzwords because you don't want to address the question. Next time you don't want to answer a question...just don't. You look like a tool for this goofy attempt to dodge the problem. If you were the honest type and wanted to make an honest retort, you'd just say "Yeah, we need to see those numbers trend differently in future primaries, I'm not worried for now" Instead....this clown car of text you managed. Yeesh.

No you tried to set up an argument that Bernie’s viability was centered around something you interpreted to be negatives in edit polls.

The fact that it is based off flawed metrics is beside the point because of you think energy matters, you’d have to concede every candidate has less than him by your own metrics. But you set that strawman up to be exclusive to him.

Just like you were wrong about NH always going to him.

Also don’t call people tools. It’s shows that you are just upset that you didn’t get the outcome you wanted

But you blatantly set up a textbook strawman and then accused others of strawman for not wanting to engage with it

[Theleviathan]

No you tried to set up an argument that Bernie’s viability was centered around something you interpreted to be negatives in edit polls.

The fact that it is based off flawed metrics is beside the point because of you think energy matters, you’d have to concede every candidate has less than him by your own metrics. But you set that strawman up to be exclusive to him.

Just like you were wrong about NH always going to him.

Also don’t call people tools. It’s shows that you are just upset that you didn’t get the outcome you wanted

But you blatantly set up a textbook strawman and then accused others of strawman for not wanting to engage with it

You don't know what a strawman is. Analyzing exit poll data for trends and other things of interest to generate a discussion is not a strawman. I didn't misrepresent anyone, I didn't use it to distract from a point, I brought it up from the data born out of the primary. You chose to engage with it....with a strawman and now this hilarious attempt out of that box.

Bernie's electability/viability as a candidate IS centered on independents, young voters, and non-voters. (Also, to older black voters. You'll notice, I didn't address that with any of the candidates because there is no data to draw conclusions from) Bernie cannot win the general without better turnout by the promised support groups. If it doesn't show up in future primaries, he will lose. Whether it's to someone else in the primary or Trump, the L is coming.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

You don't know what a strawman is. Analyzing exit poll data for trends and other things of interest to generate a discussion is not a strawman. I didn't misrepresent anyone, I didn't use it to distract from a point, I brought it up from the data born out of the primary. You chose to engage with it....with a strawman and now this hilarious attempt out of that box.

Bernie's electability/viability as a candidate IS centered on independents, young voters, and non-voters. (Also, to older black voters. You'll notice, I didn't address that with any of the candidates because there is no data to draw conclusions from) Bernie cannot win the general without better turnout by the promised support groups. If it doesn't show up in future primaries, he will lose. Whether it's to someone else in the primary or Trump, the L is coming.

Jesus Christ.

Analyzing data isn’t a strawman. Setting up your self proclaimed argument as “ Bernie and his supporters have been touting how he will bring energy and progressive out that have shunned elections. Has that happened?“ So you can use data to debate his viability in the face of a win and many other positive metrics is quite literally setting up an alternative argument to attack. Which is by definition a strawman

[Theleviathan]

Jesus Christ.

Analyzing data isn’t a strawman. Setting up your self proclaimed argument as “ Bernie and his supporters have been touting how he will bring energy and progressive out that have shunned elections. Has that happened?“ So you can use data to debate his viability in the face of a win and many other positive metrics is quite literally setting up an alternative argument to attack. Which is by definition a strawman

No...I'm using data from a win to project strengths and weaknesses. Just like I see Buttigieg pulling no support from lower incomes or latinos being a problem for his path forward. No one here has Buttigieg as their personal savior so that doesn't seem likely to create much discussion.

Data from Sanders' NH win and tie in Iowa shows more weakness where there has been argued to be a strength. If that doesnt reverse, much like Buttigieg and hispanic voters in NV, the path to a Presidency seems dicey at best.

[Iron Maiden]

Oh, no. We need to have another 13 pages of bitching about Bernie. Who cares about anything else?

If there were a like button here, you'd get one from me

[Iron Maiden]

I hope she doubles it to 18 years.

Consider yourself a recipient of a like button too