All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Tami]

I found this on FiveThirtyEight. What do you make of it?

Screenshot_2020-02-17 Latest Polls YouGov 2122020.jpg

[4saken1]

I found this on FiveThirtyEight. What do you make of it?

Screenshot_2020-02-17 Latest Polls YouGov 2122020.jpg

Unless contextually there is something missing, I might actually agree with the Sanders supporters who are sure to automatically decry media bias against him.

[SquirrelMan]

Sanders supporter John Graziano (TYT) tweets homophobic meme of Pete Buttigieg comparing him to Jeffrey Dahmer a serial killer that murdered 17 men and boys. John is also Chief Technical Officer to the @Sema4Texas
campaign.

By the way, those pictures of politicians with "quotes" they never said, like Mayor Pete here I only see from MAGAts and Bernie Bros.

[Tazirai]

….dude... That... isn't a good look for Sanders still.

I hear ya. But the context matters. Some will. **** on him regardless.

[4saken1]

I wouldn't count on it. The Dems have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Even in 2018 the "Blue Wave" underperformed. Many pundits initially thought they would take the Congress by a greater margin and that they could even flip the Senate as well.

Most of the pundits that I heard realistically knew the outcome of the Senate races, especially since there were 24 Democrat seats up in the air and only 9 Republican ones. This year, there are 11 Democratic held seats and 21 Republican ones. Of course, many of those Republican seats are in deep red states.....

[Theleviathan]

This Nevada poll... seems to be a bit of an outlier.

Nevada's polling is notoriously hard to do. I think we're just going to have to see what happens.

[4saken1]

Meanwhile, Trump is doing what Sanders promises to do.

-----
"President Donald Trump doesn’t have much of a primary fight on his hands — but Republican voters are nevertheless turning out in droves for him, a warning sign for Democrats in November.

The massive turnout is a reflection of organic enthusiasm among conservatives and a sophisticated effort by Trump's campaign to rev up its get-out-the-vote machine ahead of the general election. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Iowa and New Hampshire ahead of voting, and the campaign flooded the two states with high-profile surrogates and launched a Facebook advertising blitz reminding supporters to cast ballots.

The efforts are paying off, with Republicans turning out in historic numbers. Trump received more than 31,000 votes in the Iowa caucus, surpassing the 25,000 Democrats who turned out during Barack Obama’s successful 2012 reelection bid. Trump’s share was more than four times the number of Republicans who caucused during George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign.

The vote totals in New Hampshire were even starker. The president received 129,696 votes, more than doubling Obama and Bush's totals.

While it’s unclear what the figures might portend for the general election — the president's job approval numbers remain stuck in the mid-40s in most surveys — the results highlight the degree to which Trump’s base is energized. A little more than a year after the president’s party suffered sweeping losses in the midterm elections, Republicans are bent on ensuring that Trump wins a second term.

“There is a personal vote for Donald Trump that is unshakeable,” said John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster who has been tracking the primary totals. “Republican voters are willing to go out" to vote for Trump even though he doesn't have a formidable primary challenge."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-dri...120014482.html

That's some scary ****! Especially given how many liberals will only be voting in the Election if 'their' candidate wins the Democratic Primary.

[WestPhillyPunisher]

Eh I think it's easy to dismiss Gabbard. However realistically with Nevada this week and SC next and then Super Tuesday I think we are looking at a field of Sanders/Biden/Bloomberg going at it and maybe thereis room for someone else to sneak into the fray.

I've always said Biden is still in this, he's just at an extremely weak position compared to where he was even a month ago. However, now it's a game of the primary field and cross campaigning. SC really was supposed to be the statement win before Super Tuesday for Biden. It was supposed to go (top 2 finish in IA and NH) then a decisive win in Nevada and then a big stamp on South Carolina to make him as strong as possible into Super Tuesday. Now he's trying to hold onto Nevada and South Carolina is a must win to keep him viable

Forgot about Tulsi the Russian Asset. I agree that Super Tuesday will separate the wheat from the chaff, if Biden wants to remain relevant in the race stead of just an afterthought, he’s going to have to make up lots of ground before the clock ticks down on him. Meanwhile, Democratic voters need to remember that it’s not just about the presidency, the Senate could well be up for grabs, in my opinion, reclaiming the Senate is just as important, if not moreso. If by some miracle a Democrat wins the election, it would be practically meaningless if Midnight Mitch remains in control of the Senate, and he’s already on record saying he won’t allow any bills to be passed if a Democrat is in the Oval Office. That’s why voters have to concentrate on other races as well.

[Kieran_Frost]

Bernie Sanders's Most Fervent Supporters Are Not Helping
https://www.advocate.com/commentary/...re-not-helping

Look, I’m gonna be blunt. I don’t like Sanders and think the most vocal of his fans are absolute trash. I know I implied in the opening paragraph that I didn’t care much for the divisive trash talking, but there is a difference between being competitive in an election and being outright hostile and threatening. Since Bernie Sanders showed up on the national scene, I have seen people get doxxed by supporters, sexually harassed, called “traitors” to their sexual and racial minority by straight white men, and his supporters mirror Trump’s most vitriolic supporters under the guise of “progress.” Yes, I said it. I stand by it, and I will die on this hill.

First off, do not even bring up Clinton fans at all. Yeah, they were dedicated and still are, but none of them said that Bernie Sanders should shut up and go knit when he lost the nomination. The sheer audacity of people to tell a former First Lady, senator, Secretary of State, and presidential popular vote winner to sit down and shut up is mind blowing, especially since no one ever said that to John Kerry, Al Gore, Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, or any of the other failed Democratic candidates for the past 40 years. She has every right to speak her damn mind and you can honestly get the hell over that fact. The fact that Bernie lost in the primary in 2016 and his delegates spent more time booing everyone who took to the convention stage who wasn’t their supporter is mindblowing. Even Sanders advocate Sarah Silverman called their behavior ridiculous. Why? Because it was. It’s still ridiculous.

The fact that these same people who howled about Clinton in 2016 are saying we need to unite behind Sanders before he’s won a single primary is absolutely insane. In fact, more than a few big brain Sanders-supporting pundits on Twitter have said that if Sanders doesn’t get the nomination this time they will outright not vote for the Democratic candidate. All I can say to that as a transgender person who has lost rights, who actually cares about those migrant and refugee children being abused in prison camps on the border is, “F YOU.”

I continue to be floored by some Sanders supporters' online behavior. When I criticized the Sanders-supporting podcast Chapo Trap House, I was harassed for almost a week, receiving numerous private messages insulting me. I had the few videos of me performing that I had posted online, and weren’t linked to other accounts, get downvoted and insulting comments posted on them. I had more than one thread on their Reddit group created about me. What makes this so much worse, is this isn’t even other online randos. These are “reporters” who are blatant Sanders surrogates hunting down these people’s private details — but for what purpose? What does knowing their names and where they work serve you other than to harass them in their private lives? Nothing.

These actions run parallel to some of the most toxic Sanders supporters: I don’t recall many conservatives saying Pete Buttigieg’s homosexuality was fake and he was a bad gay, but I can recall some Sanders supporters saying as much.

Tons of Sanders surrogates claim Sanders should be the candidate because he is able to build a movement. What movement? A group of online trolls who harass and insult people? People who outright threaten to throw the election to Trump if they don’t win? This movement of people who harass women, insult LGBTQ people, call racial minorities “traitors”? A group of folks who smear anyone who disagree as corrupt, present distorted facts, imply they work for the CIA in a reflection of Trumpian “Deep State” fear mongering?

A major factor in building a movement is being accountable for the people who join it. If Bernie Sanders is aware of this behavior and condones it, what does that say about him? If Sanders is unaware of this behavior that goes all the way up to his own campaign staff and his major surrogates, what does that say about his ability to be a leader?

[Superbat]

MEMO: SANDERS HAS STRONG LEAD IN NEVADA

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...lead-in-nevada

Key Findings:

Senator Bernie Sanders has a commanding nineteen point in the Nevada caucus, with 35 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting him. He is followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Former Vice President Joe Biden who are all tightly clustered at 16, 15 and 14 percentage points, respectively.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, whose third place finish in the New Hampshire primary garnered considerable media coverage sits in sixth place with 9 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting her.

Sanders performs extremely well with Hispanic likely caucusgoers, registering 66 percent support, with no other candidate cracking double digits. He continues to see strong support among younger voters, with likely caucusgoers under 45 supporting him at 64 percent. Of those who have made up their mind, Sanders registers 47 percent support.

Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (69 percent in support, 23 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (93 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).

Data for Progress conducted a poll of 766 likely Nevada caucusgoers from 2/12/2020 through 2/15/2020. Likely caucusgoers were identified from the Nevada voter file and weighted to a likely electorate. Our margin of error is +/- 3.4 percent.

After coming away with the most votes in each of the two first contests of the Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders is going into the Nevada caucus in a strong position. He may leave in a dominant position. With a nearly 20 point lead over his next most supported opponent, Senator Sanders is in a strong position to solidify his frontrunner status with his showing in Nevada. From there we will see the strength of Joe Biden’s “firewall” in South Carolina (2/29), followed shortly by Super Tuesday (3/2). It should be noted however that Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll and that there is enough time between now and the caucus for things to change.

Bernie’s base of support is found both among voters under 45 and Hispanic voters. Among voters under 45, he holds a 50 point lead over Warren who sits in second place with 14 percent. Meanwhile, 66 percent of Hispanic likely caucusgoers back Sanders, with the rest of the field accounting for the remaining 34 percentage points.

[Theleviathan]

Bernie Sanders's Most Fervent Supporters Are Not Helping
https://www.advocate.com/commentary/...re-not-helping

Look, I’m gonna be blunt. I don’t like Sanders and think the most vocal of his fans are absolute trash. I know I implied in the opening paragraph that I didn’t care much for the divisive trash talking, but there is a difference between being competitive in an election and being outright hostile and threatening. Since Bernie Sanders showed up on the national scene, I have seen people get doxxed by supporters, sexually harassed, called “traitors” to their sexual and racial minority by straight white men, and his supporters mirror Trump’s most vitriolic supporters under the guise of “progress.” Yes, I said it. I stand by it, and I will die on this hill.

First off, do not even bring up Clinton fans at all. Yeah, they were dedicated and still are, but none of them said that Bernie Sanders should shut up and go knit when he lost the nomination. The sheer audacity of people to tell a former First Lady, senator, Secretary of State, and presidential popular vote winner to sit down and shut up is mind blowing, especially since no one ever said that to John Kerry, Al Gore, Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, or any of the other failed Democratic candidates for the past 40 years. She has every right to speak her damn mind and you can honestly get the hell over that fact. The fact that Bernie lost in the primary in 2016 and his delegates spent more time booing everyone who took to the convention stage who wasn’t their supporter is mindblowing. Even Sanders advocate Sarah Silverman called their behavior ridiculous. Why? Because it was. It’s still ridiculous.

The fact that these same people who howled about Clinton in 2016 are saying we need to unite behind Sanders before he’s won a single primary is absolutely insane. In fact, more than a few big brain Sanders-supporting pundits on Twitter have said that if Sanders doesn’t get the nomination this time they will outright not vote for the Democratic candidate. All I can say to that as a transgender person who has lost rights, who actually cares about those migrant and refugee children being abused in prison camps on the border is, “F YOU.”

I continue to be floored by some Sanders supporters' online behavior. When I criticized the Sanders-supporting podcast Chapo Trap House, I was harassed for almost a week, receiving numerous private messages insulting me. I had the few videos of me performing that I had posted online, and weren’t linked to other accounts, get downvoted and insulting comments posted on them. I had more than one thread on their Reddit group created about me. What makes this so much worse, is this isn’t even other online randos. These are “reporters” who are blatant Sanders surrogates hunting down these people’s private details — but for what purpose? What does knowing their names and where they work serve you other than to harass them in their private lives? Nothing.

These actions run parallel to some of the most toxic Sanders supporters: I don’t recall many conservatives saying Pete Buttigieg’s homosexuality was fake and he was a bad gay, but I can recall some Sanders supporters saying as much.

Tons of Sanders surrogates claim Sanders should be the candidate because he is able to build a movement. What movement? A group of online trolls who harass and insult people? People who outright threaten to throw the election to Trump if they don’t win? This movement of people who harass women, insult LGBTQ people, call racial minorities “traitors”? A group of folks who smear anyone who disagree as corrupt, present distorted facts, imply they work for the CIA in a reflection of Trumpian “Deep State” fear mongering?

A major factor in building a movement is being accountable for the people who join it. If Bernie Sanders is aware of this behavior and condones it, what does that say about him? If Sanders is unaware of this behavior that goes all the way up to his own campaign staff and his major surrogates, what does that say about his ability to be a leader?

The comments section for this article are going to vindicate her in time......

[Theleviathan]

MEMO: SANDERS HAS STRONG LEAD IN NEVADA

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memo...lead-in-nevada

.

Sorta found what they wanted to find? Bernie may win by more than that...Nevada is notoriously weird for polling. I wouldn't put stock in the one earlier putting Steyer in front anymore than this one. We're just going to have to see how this shakes out.

[numberthirty]

He's also deteriorating in front of our eyes and the GOP might lose the Senate, though. Silver linings.

I wouldn't count on it. The Dems have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Even in 2018 the "Blue Wave" underperformed. Many pundits initially thought they would take the Congress by a greater margin and that they could even flip the Senate as well.

That's... why I said it's a silver lining. A glimmer of hope. Not a "sure thing".

A while back, I had kind of wondered to myself just how Trump would do with certain sets of more "Working Class..." voters. While I think there are some that the eventual Democratic Nominee could make a pitch to, I was sort of surprised that Trump is doing as well as he is here. Not the best sign.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ocrats/606613/

Latino Support for Trump Is Real

President Donald Trump has done almost everything he can to anger Latino voters. And yet, his support among this crucial portion of the electorate remains surprisingly consistent. After the 2016 election, exit polls analyzed by the Pew Research Center showed that 28 percent of Latino voters supported Trump; today, 30 percent support him.

This percentage may not seem high. But consider what the number means for the Democrats: Displeasure with the president over the past three years has not led to an increase in support for the opposing party.

Democrats lost the 2016 election with about 66 percent of the Latino vote. Today 65 percent of registered Latino voters who are Democrats have a positive view of the party’s presidential candidates. Based on exit polling from the past three election cycles, I estimate that Democrats need about 70 percent of this vote to take back the White House.

[Steel Inquisitor]

Can't blame Bernie on the toxicity of Bernie Bros. He's warned them two or three times, he's apologized for their sexual harassment and has even disavowed them recently. He needs to find out why he attracts these type of people.

Sure we can. They are influenced by his campaign, who hire people who do this themselves and Sanders keeps them on without saying a word. He knows what he's doing. That's why every week there's news of someone doing something terrible in his campaign. He's made some steps but hasn't got close to disciplining his staff or supporters who don't understand that being progressive isn't determined by how sexist or abusive you are. I cringe at the thought about what it's going to be like by the Very Online when he's president, they'll be emboldened like the Trump supporters are.

[Superbat]

Sorta found what they wanted to find? Bernie may win by more than that...Nevada is notoriously weird for polling. I wouldn't put stock in the one earlier putting Steyer in front anymore than this one. We're just going to have to see how this shakes out.

The other poll was disproportionately caucasus goers over 65.

Nevada is hard to poll, you are right about that.