All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[numberthirty]

I would agree with you, but they weren't fighting each other like this when Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Obama got the nomination. So what changed the Party?

That...

Is up for debate.

[Zauriel]

He has an incredibly likely path to being reelected no matter what.

Letting that reality dictate how Democrats run their nomination process is nonsensical, at best. Too many versions of it that create issues that cannot be worked out.

That is why Iowa caucus was messed up. That is why Nevada caucus still has some irregularities. Right now, Mayor Pete is currently disputing the Nevada results, making claims about irregularities.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/23/p...ses/index.html

[Zauriel]

That...

Is up for debate.

Obama did unite the party despite the opposition by some Hillary supporters. Of course, they were not happy with Obama being the nominee. But In the end, Obama got the votes of Hillary Clinton supporters and won the election.

[PwrdOn]

Obama did unite the party despite the opposition by some Hillary supporters. Of course, they were not happy with Obama being the nominee. But In the end, Obama got the votes of Hillary Clinton supporters and won the election.

That's because Obama's supposed "outsider" status was entirely due to him being a black man, in all other respects he was quite a traditional politician and frankly you would have had a hard time growing a better presidential candidate in a laboratory. Of course salty Hillary loyalists had to swallow their pride to back him, but as he wasn't fundamentally challenging the sociopolitical status quo the rest of the party quickly unified behind him.

[Zauriel]

That's because Obama's supposed "outsider" status was entirely due to him being a black man, in all other respects he was quite a traditional politician and frankly you would have had a hard time growing a better presidential candidate in a laboratory. Of course salty Hillary loyalists had to swallow their pride to back him, but as he wasn't fundamentally challenging the sociopolitical status quo the rest of the party quickly unified behind him.

Yes, Obama wasn't as liberal as Bernie. In fact, Obama and Hillary were both centrists and belonged to the establishment. That is why Hillary's loyalists supported Obama.

[Steel Inquisitor]

Yes, Obama wasn't as liberal as Bernie. In fact, Obama and Hillary were both centrists and belonged to the establishment. That is why Hillary's loyalists supported Obama.

It was more that Obama didn't have an established power bloc within the party to lead without compromising with the centrists, he had to buckle or he risked them undermining is presidency. Obama had no choice but to evolve himself into a politician that could thrive in those waters to accomplish his agenda.

[numberthirty]

That is why Iowa caucus was messed up. That is why Nevada caucus still has some irregularities. Right now, Mayor Pete is currently disputing the Nevada results, making claims about irregularities.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/23/p...ses/index.html

Separate issue from what you initially mentioned.

Whether Democrats should(or should not) step aside and support any given candidate has nothing to do with if the specific mechanics of caucus/primary races should be scrutinized.

[Zauriel]

It was more that Obama didn't have an established power bloc within the party to lead without compromising with the centrists, he had to buckle or he risked them undermining is presidency. Obama had no choice but to evolve himself into a politician that could thrive in those waters to accomplish his agenda.

If Bernie had won the primaries, Would Bernie Sanders also compromise with the centrists, breaking the promises he made to his voters? Bernie had better not buckle up to them.

[Steel Inquisitor]

If Bernie had won the primaries, Would Bernie Sanders also compromise with the centrists, breaking the promises he made to his voters? Bernie had better not buckle up to them.

He'd be screwed, either way. Either he folds or he'll get blocked by both parties entirely. This is why compromise shouldn't be seen as weakness, it makes governing possible.

[Zauriel]

He'd be screwed, either way. Either he folds or he'll get blocked by both parties entirely. This is why compromise shouldn't be seen as weakness, it makes governing possible.

Trump didn't fold and didn't make compromises with the Establishment of the Republican Party. He never sought out endorsements from any Establishment politicians. That is why both Bush Sr. and Jr. and John McCain didn't vote for them. In spite of the moderate Republican opposition, he refused to become a traditional politician and ended up winning the Electoral College.

[Steel Inquisitor]

Trump didn't fold and didn't make compromises with the Establishment of the Republican Party. He never sought out endorsements from any Establishment politicians. That is why both Bush Sr. and Jr. and John McCain didn't vote for them. In spite of the moderate Republican opposition, he refused to become a traditional politician and ended up winning the Electoral College.

Sanders isn't Trump, he won't be getting his advantages. Trump's been severely curtailed in congress, despite having a majority - he's no George W Bush in pushing legislation through congress. Republicans have another advantage in that they like when the government stops working, will the left be so welcoming with that with Sanders administration? I don't think so, they have goals to accomplish. Trump won the EC through hail mary's like Comey and Russian interference, had they not interfered we'd have President Hilary right now.

[Superbat]

Fears grow that Obama can't win

Analysts believe white working class Democrats will defect to McCain if Clinton is not the nominee

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...selections2008

With senator Barack Obama poised this week to clinch his party's nomination for President, there are growing fears in some quarters that the Democratic party may not be choosing its strongest candidate to beat Republican John McCain.

Senator Hillary Clinton has been making that argument for weeks. Now some recent polls and analysis, looking particularly at vital battleground states and support among white voters, have bolstered her case - even as Obama looks certain to become the nominee.

Obama supporters reject this argument and point to his record of boosting Democratic voter turnout, especially among the young. But sceptics in the party, already nervous about nominating Obama after the furore over outspoken pastor Jeremiah Wright, are growing increasingly concerned. 'There is an element of buyer's remorse in some areas. The question is whether it gets really strong now or in September - or even after the election is over, if he loses,' said Steve Mitchell, head of political consultancy Mitchell Research.

Another boost to Clinton's case came late last week after a pro-Obama preacher gave a race-tinged rant against her at Obama's church in Chicago. In a recent sermon Michael Pfleger - a long-term Obama backer who is white - mocked Clinton as an entitled white person angry at a black man having beaten her. His angry, red-faced speech, in which he mimicked Clinton weeping, was played repeatedly across American cable channels and the internet.

The news sent shock waves through Democratic circles; many had hoped Obama had put 'pastor problems' behind him. 'It is more of the same problem as Wright. It reinforces the image among some voters that Obama does not share their values,' said Mitchell.

The uproar also lent a disturbingly antagonistic tone to scenes in Washington DC where Clinton and Obama supporters gathered yesterday outside a party rules meeting called to resolve the problem of the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries, which Clinton claims as victories. Clinton supporters chanted 'Count our votes!' and waved placards and banners. Clinton wants those states' delegations seated at the Denver convention, even though they broke party rules by holding early contests.

Obama is now to some extent limping to the finishing line. Clinton's refusal to bow out even though her odds of victory have become almost impossible has seen her win several of the most recent contests. In fact, since 4 March, Clinton has won around half a million more votes than Obama. That run of victories should easily continue today when Puerto Rico goes to the polls, and could even extend to the final primaries - South Dakota and Montana - which vote on Tuesday. Obama had been expected to win there, but Clinton has been campaigning furiously and it could be close.

Clinton has been making the case for several months, as her support has grown stronger among white working class voters, that those voters will not support Obama in a general election. By contrast, experts believe Obama's core - educated Democrats and blacks - will remain loyal to the party no matter who the nominee is. There is strong data to back that up, especially from recent votes in West Virginia and Kentucky where large proportions of Clinton voters said they would not back Obama in November.

There is also a growing fear that many of the women backing Clinton are turning against Obama. Clinton and her supporters have controversially accused their rival, and the media, of being misogynistic in the last few weeks of the race. A recent Pew Poll showed Obama's support among white women collapsing from 56 per cent to 43 per cent.

But the electoral fact remains the same. The dramatic Obama vs Clinton contest is now down to a few hundred uncommitted party 'superdelegates', who are under huge pressure to make their decisions in the next few days. Senior party figures, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have been working privately to convince them to make that decision as soon as possible, ideally this week. With Obama's delegate lead unassailable, the vast majority are almost certain to come over to his side.

Republican analysts, meanwhile, are surprised about how healthy their party's prospects look in a year when almost all indicators suggested they should lose. McCain remains competitive against Obama. He even leads in some key states. Indeed, some research predicts he could romp home against Obama.

It is that prospect, Clinton supporters say, that leads them to keep fighting. They point to Obama's performance in North Carolina as a bellwether: it was his strong win there earlier this month that dealt an almost fatal blow to Clinton's chances. Yet, two weeks after that win, polls showed Clinton easily outperformed Obama there when measured against McCain. 'Clinton has a very strong argument that she is a stronger candidate against McCain. It is just that it has fallen on deaf ears,' said Mitchell.

[Tofali]

That is why Iowa caucus was messed up. That is why Nevada caucus still has some irregularities. Right now, Mayor Pete is currently disputing the Nevada results, making claims about irregularities.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/23/p...ses/index.html

recanvassing for a strong third is not going to get him much after 71.58% precinct reporting

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

He'd be screwed, either way. Either he folds or he'll get blocked by both parties entirely. This is why compromise shouldn't be seen as weakness, it makes governing possible.

Bernie's smart play would be to compromise with them on some of the smaller stuff. Get an infrastructure bill kicked out ASAP so they can get a quick win. Roll back alot of Trump policies. Build good will gthat way. Then not compromise on M4A and make it the definining national discourse. Obama went right for the ACA and he blew a ton of capital in the process and compromised anyways. Bernie is going to need an FDR style route where the Dems are terrified of being held to task for not playing ball with it.

At some point compromise will come into play, but right now is not the time to make concessions. Maybe M4A ends up being just the most essential coverages paid for and anything life threatening but neglects vision and dental and alot of that becomes supplementary and where the traditional insurance markets migrate to.

I think a major flaw Obama had was that he misread Republicans and thought he was extending olive branches (and in many ways never gave up on that even when he nominated Merick Garland) and in reality he was just resetting the fight for Republicans. Missing the public option was really what did the most damage to Obamacare's popularity.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

recanvassing for a strong third is not going to get him much after 71.58% precinct reporting

If I was Pete, that's not the hill I would die on. He's not going to make much of a dent in Nevada regardless and he has a much closer state that he is trying to claim a win in that had it's own irregularities that probably were to his benefit.

Either way, this was always the issue with his campaign. He had no post Iowa and NH strategy. It was try to win there and ride a wave.