All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Kieran_Frost]

We've just gone over that there is a very real chance that we are talking about a third party with no real affiliation, and you are saying "Sanders Acolytes..." If it's one, it can't be the other. Might look like it, but it's not.

Honestly, a fake "Sanders acolyte" who supports Trump and wants him to win and a fake "Sanders acolyte" because it would benefit their country if Trump wins... I mean, you're splitting hairs. The result is the same. The goal is the same (help Trump win). So it's the same thing. It really is.

No, we honestly do not agree there. The way it's laid out oversimplifies some obvious realities of American politics. There are other things in play that you aren't really bringing up. Knowing that, I'd say there's probably more to it than what you have laid out. Are there the three groups involved? Sure. Is that all there is to the animosity that is happening? No. Absolutely not.

Then list them. Because so far I'm seeing only two options for motive (three if you count "pure stupidity" which isn't really a motive).

Finish this sentence "the Bernie Bros are spewing hate online, attacking all other democratic candidates with bile and smear and their motive that this will add support to Bernie is..." [insert a reason not already listed above]

And these so called Warren supporters

1. Never campaigned for her (I did)
2. Wasn't out on the streets for here (I was)
3. Never cast a vote for here (I cast more than one)
4. Never saw her debate (I did)
5. Never was at any of her rallies (I was)
6. Were barely aware of here at all before this election cycle.

Well... actually I did all of those things too. And my posts will 100% back up that view.

Trust me, I'm not happy that she's had dissapointing finishes in all her primaries and is on the verge of losing her state and any prospects to win this thing. I can just see what's going on and not lie to myself to feel better.

And yet... the calmness, and unapologetic way you posted about how she'll need to drop out after South Carolina... doesn't really go hand-in-hand with that statement? The idea you can't both accept defeat AND yet still convey some belief or adoration in a candidate is ridiculous.

[numberthirty]

...

Then list them. Because so far I'm seeing only two options for motive (three if you count "pure stupidity" which isn't really a motive).

Finish this sentence "the Bernie Bros are spewing hate online, attacking all other democratic candidates with bile and smear and their motive that this will add support to Bernie is..." [insert a reason not already listed above]

Doing so?

It's only going to play into a premise that is already built on what is, at best, some pretty flawed logic.

This was initially about Mayor Pete. Outside of what people seem to want to put a set of blinders on to decide is the only possible reasons there could be animosity, there is this...

https://www.themarysue.com/refund-pete-buttigieg/

Why Donors Want Refunds from “Wall Street Pete” Buttigieg

If folks want to look at that and stick to "Nope. Has To Be About What I Believe It Is About..."?

Can't really stop them. Also doesn't mean that they are right when they do it.

[PwrdOn]

I mean... I see what you're saying in the "we don't hear from the poor" (which is case across history, as records are only kept of the movers and shakers) but I just... don't see any evidence that the poor in Russia and China are just doing so good. And loving life under their government (I will say, I know next to nothing about Cuba)

By and large, the biggest gripe that the average folks in Russia and China have against their government is that market-oriented reforms have hollowed out a previously robust system of safety nets while most of the gains have gone to enrich a small circle of oligarchs. And in fact, although if you read the (failing) NYT all you see is columns written by dissidents, there are in fact a lot of recent immigrants, mostly students and professionals, mostly from China but also some from Russia, who have moved here for purely economic reasons and don't really much in the way of bad things to say about their governments. However, because this doesn't fit the generally accepted narrative we tend to just treat them as being brainwashed ideologues rather than listening to what they have to say.

What about Cubans that arrived to America by boat such as the Mariel boatlift or the Cubans Castro released from jail so they can immigrate to the US? I doubt they had money.

Should go without saying that Scarface isn't really an accurate picture of the Cuban immigrant experience.

[Kieran_Frost]

It's only going to play into a premise that is already built on what is, at best, some pretty flawed logic.

Three posts of "you can't think of one? REALLY? It's not occurred to you? REALLY? There's not a third option? REALLY?" And you're asked each time to give one... and ya can't.

By and large, the biggest gripe that the average folks in Russia and China have against their government is that market-oriented reforms have hollowed out a previously robust system of safety nets while most of the gains have gone to enrich a small circle of oligarchs. And in fact, although if you read the (failing) NYT all you see is columns written by dissidents, there are in fact a lot of recent immigrants, mostly students and professionals, mostly from China but also some from Russia, who have moved here for purely economic reasons and don't really much in the way of bad things to say about their governments. However, because this doesn't fit the generally accepted narrative we tend to just treat them as being brainwashed ideologues rather than listening to what they have to say.

This is interesting, thank-you. I will have a deeper look into this. Don't get me wrong, they still do terrible things (concentration camps for Muslims in China right now, for example) but... about the poor, that is interesting. As all opinions on the matter (I will concede) are filtered through the non-poor experience. I shall do more research, it's an interesting conundrum...

[Celgress]

Frankly ? Its because he was the only one giving a sensible option and no one assumed the North would be so wacked out on Brexit Juice /Toryganda that they'd vote Tory (numerous polls have shown thats all the North cared about) which is now hurting them badly.....

I figured it out long before the election. From the data I saw it was clear Corbyn (and his surrogates) had alienated Labour's historic base, the working class, with his extreme left-wing positions and associated talking points. Many people felt Labour no longer cared about them or their values. I was only shocked by the margin of Tory victory. Mind you predicting elections and geo-politics is part of my job as a professor/researcher.

[Kieran_Frost]

I figured it out long before the election. From the data I saw it was clear Corbyn (and his surrogates) had alienated Labour's historic base, the working class, with his extreme left-wing positions and associated talking points. Many people felt Labour no longer cared about them or their values. I was only shocked by the margin of Tory victory. Mind you predicting elections and geo-politics is part of my job as a professor/researcher.

Oh that's cool. What are you views on recent polling in the UK? Am I right in saying not even Johnson predicted that big a win (or that big a loss), ditto for the referendum itself. I know at the last election and the one before the issue of the "silent Tory" (eeek, that wasn't the name, it had another, I forget?) some felt were throwing off the data.

https://www.themarysue.com/refund-pete-buttigieg/

I'm going to ask this with a little sarcasm as I can muster... do you consider this fair and balanced journalism? Bare in mind, before you answer, if you click on her name it brings up all the articles she also wrote...

[Celgress]

I'm reffering to "political groups hate each other" and it was THOUGH not THOUGHT

True, but you'll find that in every country (political groups hating each other) only the degree (or amount of passion expressed) varies.

Sorry that I misquoted you but in my defense "though" made little sense given both the sentence the paragraphical context. lol

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Honestly, a fake "Sanders acolyte" who supports Trump and wants him to win and a fake "Sanders acolyte" because it would benefit their country if Trump wins... I mean, you're splitting hairs. The result is the same. The goal is the same (help Trump win). So it's the same thing. It really is.


Then list them. Because so far I'm seeing only two options for motive (three if you count "pure stupidity" which isn't really a motive).

Finish this sentence "the Bernie Bros are spewing hate online, attacking all other democratic candidates with bile and smear and their motive that this will add support to Bernie is..." [insert a reason not already listed above]


Well... actually I did all of those things too. And my posts will 100% back up that view.


And yet... the calmness, and unapologetic way you posted about how she'll need to drop out after South Carolina... doesn't really go hand-in-hand with that statement? The idea you can't both accept defeat AND yet still convey some belief or adoration in a candidate is ridiculous.

Okay maybe you are the only one (are you from MA?).

First off, I didn't say she should drop out after SC. I said she is in danger of losing her homestate and if she does, yes she will no longer be viable. That's just a fact. Again I don't need to get emotional and deny reality because it doesn't coincide with my wants. There's nothing fruitful in lying to yourself. And I've been involved in politics long enough to be able to read tea leaves. Warren will still do great things even if she most likely isn't going to win this go around. But it's foolish as hell to look at the situation where she tanked after releasing her healthcare plan when she was surging, came in 3rd in Iowa, came in 4th in NH which borders her homestate and shares media with them, came in 4th in Nevada and is missed the viability cut, came in 5th in South Carolina, and is now looking at a Super Tuesday where she isn't leading in any states and in states like California that she was leading in, she is now dangerously close to the viability cut and all the recent polls coming out of her homestate say she is looking to lose it and think she has a path afterwards.

I've been around this game long enough to know how this **** works. You can't lose your homestate. You can't be below viability for delegates in 3 of the 4 opening states. You can't place in 3rd, then 4th twice, then 5th, and go into Super Tuesday ice cold like that.

It's just the blunt truth of the matter. And quite frankly, it's early in the primary season and we will likely be watching a long battle of Biden seeing if he can catch Sanders and then another shitshow of general election. You can't lose your mind over your preferred candidate dissapointing early in the primaries and probably being done. It happens every cycle. Personally just looking at polls, I think the only reason Bloomberg is still in is because he spent so much on Super Tuesday, I think Klobuchar and Buttigieg are still in just kind of hoping for a midwest resuregence that won't happen. Warren just has the distinction of her state and last lifeline is coming up on Tuesday and it will tell her if she has a bit of life and a reason to think she can turn everything around.... or if she has to call it a day.

And yes I am unapologetic about a statement I made looking at the facts of what's happened in the primaries and her polls going into Super Tuesday. I'll be honest, Biden was probably my 4th preferred candidate (Warren, Sanders, Harris, and then Biden) and I spent most of this season until Iowa thinking it was going to be a catch up game with him to see if my theory of him losing a few states hurting his electability pitch was actually correct (it was).

It's just a waste of time for me to ignore reality because it doesn't give me what I want. There are other people here who you can talk to for that.

[Celgress]

Oh that's cool. What are you views on recent polling in the UK? Am I right in saying not even Johnson predicted that big a win (or that big a loss), ditto for the referendum itself. I know at the last election and the one before the issue of the "silent Tory" (eeek, that wasn't the name, it had another, I forget?) some felt were throwing off the data.

I feel Labour can make a comeback now that they are (slowly) moving beyond Corbyn's disastrous platform. These working-class voters are by nature Labour supporters they just need to be thrown a few bones (as the saying goes). Corbyn's (perhaps perceived, to a degree) harsh treatment of the working-class was stupid and self-defeating.

What I'm most interested in moving forward is the possibility of Scottish Independence. I feel it has a better than 50% chance of happening this time around. As with the Shia-Sunni split in Islam (which is rooted firmly in the stormy history of Persian-Arab relations), Scottish Independence has a far deeper historic and cultural context than most realize. The Scotts have never been truly happy with the union and have felt the English call the shots. Johnson's accession and leaving the EU have only magnified feelings that have long been there.

Modern polling methods are dubious at best. Do you know many polling companies (in North American and Europe) still use landlines as their primary method of data gathering or crude Internet surveys in which people can easily take part multiple times? Also, many people will outright lie to throw off the polls especially conservatives because they hate "fake news" companies.

[Superbat]

How does everyone think ST is going to go?

My predictions:

Alabama - Biden
Arkansas - Biden
Colorado - Bernie
Massachusetts - Bernie or Warren
Minnesota - Klobuchar
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - Bernie
Vermont - Bernie
California - Bernie
North Carolina - Biden
Maine - Bernie
Oklahoma - Biden
Utah - Bernie
Virginia - Bernie

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

How does everyone think ST is going to go?

My predictions:

Alabama - Biden
Arkansas - Biden
Colorado - Bernie
Massachusetts - Bernie or Warren
Minnesota - Klobuchar
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - Bernie
Vermont - Bernie
California - Bernie
North Carolina - Biden
Maine - Bernie
Oklahoma - Biden
Utah - Bernie
Virginia - Bernie

I have the same as you basically. North Carolina might also be a toss up between Sanders and Biden, but I might lean Biden off the strengthof his SC win.

I think Sanders is going to have a big lead at the end of this and Biden will be the only one with a chance and it will cull the field. Which will change this race dramatically. Sanders and Biden are pretty even head to head and it's pretty much the worst last man standing for either candidate. The issue is they have a lot of crossover so it will be interesting to see if momentum peels away voters

[Mister Mets]

I figured it out long before the election. From the data I saw it was clear Corbyn (and his surrogates) had alienated Labour's historic base, the working class, with his extreme left-wing positions and associated talking points. Many people felt Labour no longer cared about them or their values. I was only shocked by the margin of Tory victory. Mind you predicting elections and geo-politics is part of my job as a professor/researcher.

There's also much to indicate that Labour just isn't a naturally strong party.

There will be a fifty year period in which it has only won parliamanentary elections under one leader: Tony Blair.

[numberthirty]

...

I'm going to ask this with a little sarcasm as I can muster... do you consider this fair and balanced journalism? Bare in mind, before you answer, if you click on her name it brings up all the articles she also wrote...

Let me guess...

It's everyone except him?

https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/02/2...voters-matter/

Pete Buttigieg marched at a minimum wage rally and people are pointing out the hypocrisy

[Billy Batson]

How does everyone think ST is going to go?

My predictions:

Alabama - Biden
Arkansas - Biden
Colorado - Bernie
Massachusetts - Bernie or Warren
Minnesota - Klobuchar
Tennessee - Biden
Texas - Bernie
Vermont - Bernie
California - Bernie
North Carolina - Biden
Maine - Bernie
Oklahoma - Biden
Utah - Bernie
Virginia - Bernie

Massachusetts for Bernie and possibly Minnesota as well (583 has him slightly ahead). Bernie might also be the only viable candidate in Cali.

[ed2962]

Like I said before, they can do that, they are also guaranteed to lose to Trump and they are also guaranteed to have the largest generation since the baby boomers very adverse to their party for many years because they told them their vote doesn't matter. That it includes young black and hispanic people and women as well. So by all means do that, but then realize that you might have damaged your party with what will end up being one of the most significant voting generations over the next 40 years.

If you don't want him, beat him. This election is really turning into the last gasps of the power struggle between boomers and millenials.

Oh, so us Gen-Xers have no say? Thanks, I'll go back to listening to my Nirnava and Public Enemy records now. (just joking)