All purpose news and politics thread part v: The quickening

[Theleviathan]

I think the polling had been hinting at this for a while. Even Biden was saying that he was going to finish in the top two in Nevada and get a win in South Carolina. Both seem like likely outcomes. The question is whether or not Bernie continues to maintain the performance he was forecasted to with moderates like Buttigieg pulling more votes from Biden and overperforming in white majority voting states while Biden only does particularly well in more diverse states.

A second and first place finish for him, depending upon the context of course, resets the race in terms of who the front-runners are and who the after-thoughts are. A first place Bernie finish in NV clearly makes him the front runner. But an ass-kicking when black people finally get to vote and we could be right back at square one. Or Biden could flop and Super Tuesday might be the nail in his coffin. A lot could still shift.

[Billy Batson]

Did the Sanders campaign pay for this foolishness?

No, Bloomberg's did.

[luprki]

Did the Sanders campaign pay for this foolishness?

Yes, because this poll doesn’t make sense

[PaulBullion]

Did the Sanders campaign pay for this foolishness?

Maybe Linley Sanders is a cousin or niece?

[luprki]

Every time I've been at a job with a Union, it felt like I was being forced to pay for something that never benefited me. One of those jobs was UPS, and that was definitely the case as the Union seemed to exist solely for protecting the workers who had been there for 20+ years, and the new hires all got screwed.

This is how unions generally work, before unions came into existence companies would fire its older employees for younger and cheaper labor. This is why the unions seems to protect +20 years employees more.

[PaulBullion]

Yes, because this poll doesn’t make sense

Why not have a poll seeing how each candidate would do against Martha Stewart in a prison cage match?

[luprki]

1. Medicare for all
2. Free college tuition
Neither will happen even with a Bernie Sanders’ Presidency, because Congress will never go along with it.
Sanders supporters are fooling themselves by thinking these two things will happen.
More than 2/3 of Democrats in both houses will not go along with it either.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m for Medicare-for-all and free tuition two. But I know it’s not happening.

[PaulBullion]

A second and first place finish for him, depending upon the context of course, resets the race in terms of who the front-runners are and who the after-thoughts are. A first place Bernie finish in NV clearly makes him the front runner. But an ass-kicking when black people finally get to vote and we could be right back at square one. Or Biden could flop and Super Tuesday might be the nail in his coffin. A lot could still shift.

Sanders is currently polling in fourth place in Florida, behind Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg (or as I like to call them, the 3 B's). He's one point ahead of Klobuchar. A few states like that will definitely change the conversation about his chances.
The only problem: We don't really have a clear front runner.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

I don't get this poll. This is if Trump dies, the GOP does not run a candidate and Sanders runs as an independent against the various Democrats?

Point of the poll is that when you take it out of a multi person primary and measure up how people feel with Sanders vs every individual nominee, he becomes the favorite of the voters. So basically while all of them together might be able to pull a majority from Sanders, no individual is stronger.

IE the Trump phenomena in 16. Trump kept winning a plurality, but people thought the majority would eventually consolidate around one canidate not named Trump as people left, but that never happened. Here it kind of shows that as the field weakens, Bernie Sanders will pull enough from whoever leaves to maintain a lead. His worst case scenario right now is that the last two standing are him and Warren or him and him and Boden because it's a close race. But literally anyone else and it's a run away for him. As people start dropping out, he'll start adding to his lead.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

A second and first place finish for him, depending upon the context of course, resets the race in terms of who the front-runners are and who the after-thoughts are. A first place Bernie finish in NV clearly makes him the front runner. But an ass-kicking when black people finally get to vote and we could be right back at square one. Or Biden could flop and Super Tuesday might be the nail in his coffin. A lot could still shift.

I think Biden should win SC. But there's a reason he skipped Nevada and went there and why polling is looking poorly for him there. Internal polling. It's been telegraphed for awhile. Biden's problem now is that SC might not mean much when they get there because you'll have one guy with 3 wins and he'll only get a really red state that isn't even helpful for a general while he is perceived as someone who is blowing it going into Super Tuesday.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Why not have a poll seeing how each candidate would do against Martha Stewart in a prison cage match?

If you can't understand the purpose of head to heads I don't know what to tell you.

[PaulBullion]

If you can't understand the purpose of head to heads I don't know what to tell you.

In a primary contest?

[PaulBullion]

Point of the poll is that when you take it out of a multi person primary and measure up how people feel with Sanders vs every individual nominee, he becomes the favorite of the voters. So basically while all of them together might be able to pull a majority from Sanders, no individual is stronger.

IE the Trump phenomena in 16. Trump kept winning a plurality, but people thought the majority would eventually consolidate around one canidate not named Trump as people left, but that never happened. Here it kind of shows that as the field weakens, Bernie Sanders will pull enough from whoever leaves to maintain a lead. His worst case scenario right now is that the last two standing are him and Warren or him and him and Boden because it's a close race. But literally anyone else and it's a run away for him. As people start dropping out, he'll start adding to his lead.

I don't think a national head to head poll gives you that info at all. It's an exercise in futility, and I do notice that somebody named Sanders was involved in creating that poll.

[KNIGHT OF THE LAKE]

Sanders is currently polling in fourth place in Florida, behind Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg (or as I like to call them, the 3 B's). He's one point ahead of Klobuchar. A few states like that will definitely change the conversation about his chances.
The only problem: We don't really have a clear front runner.

Florida is after Super Tuesday. The entire landscape will be different by then. Realistically, Buttigieg won't be viable and we'll see if Biden and Bloomberg win a struggle or if they cannabilize each other

[Mister Mets]

I don't get this poll. This is if Trump dies, the GOP does not run a candidate and Sanders runs as an independent against the various Democrats?

It's among Democrats, and suggests that under current circumstances if the race came down to two candidates, Sanders wins. That goes against the theory that eventually the majority of the party will coalesce around someone else.

It is possible that some other candidates do poorly because of low name recognition or temporary bad buzz. I'm not sure half of Democrats know who Klobuchar is, and it's possible Biden would have different numbers following the positive publicity of a second-place win in Nevada, and a first place win in South Carolina.